Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[NApplewhite]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

The magic 100F is within reach!!!

 

No where near 100f today! currently 66f in Manchester. Cant see us getting a rise of 34F in the next 36 hours. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The magic 100F is within reach!!!

 

 

Tomorrow looks like a record breaker..great model support!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[knocker]

Min temps on the 0600 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html

[NTC]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tomorrow looks like a record breaker..great model support!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Didn't yesterday's models have 39 and a 40 on it and high 30s up to the north east that model does not have those numbers a couple of 38s but mainly mids 30s

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Min temps on the 0600 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html

Did it tie the overnight low record? 23.9 at Manston...

[Porto]

0z ARPEGE (zoomed in) showing 40c in the London area.

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles don't point towards anything being hidden in the woodshed, though 850s do, as is often the case, seem a tad lower than on other runs?

   

   

And, barring any Canadian-style forest fires, tomorrow might be THE DAY!

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The magic 100F is within reach!!!

 

 

39'C to the west of London. Matches the Met Office written forecasts and their automated forecasts for Northolt and Heathrow. Even 40'C can't be ruled out. Truly extraordinary. It's going to be an historic day that will be talked about for many years to come.

[johnholmes]

Well looking further ahead than the next 2-3 days and backwith my trusty 500 mb anomaly charts, at last!

ECMWF-GFS have actually had full charts for the last 3 days

They show a similar idea to what is shown below with blocking at high latitudes and cut off low in the UK area. Not really as NOAA but probably close enough to end up with similar weather on the surface=yuk. Why? It is not impossible for the weather 6-10 days away to be not that different to what we are having now. My own feeling is that the intense heat will be gone but a NW-SE split will mean the SE third being most very warm with possibly isolated incursions of thundery weather from front in the west with the NW'ern areas more unsettled/changeable with drier sunny spells in between. Perhaps quite windy at times in the far NW?

Anyway the charts

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[danm]

28 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

No where near 100f today! currently 66f in Manchester. Cant see us getting a rise of 34F in the next 36 hours. 

Yes but the chart you quoted doesn’t show 100f in Manchester. It shows 30c, 86f. 100f is shown in London. 

[stainesbloke]

17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

39'C to the west of London. Matches the Met Office written forecasts and their automated forecasts for Northolt and Heathrow. Even 40'C can't be ruled out. Truly extraordinary. It's going to be an historic day that will be talked about for many years to come.

Unless cloud scuppers chances. Always a possibility in the UK

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Unless cloud scuppers chances. Always a possibility in the UK

I'd have thought that with winds coming from the continent and over the shortest sea track, the risk of cloud cover would be low so long as any fronts are held well at bay which they will be.

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, danm said:

Yes but the chart you quoted doesn’t show 100f in Manchester. It shows 30c, 86f. 100f is shown in London. 

Plus its only 9.48am, you surely dont expect 30+c at that time.

[Summer Sun]

Big news from the met office this morning they're saying a 60% chance of the all time UK record going tomorrow. 

Maybe UKV was on the money it's consistently gone for 39c/40c

 

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Big news from the met office this morning they're saying a 60% chance of the all time UK record going tomorrow. 

Maybe UKV was on the money it's consistently gone for 39c/40c

 

60% chance is huuuuge!!!cant believe am gona witness this tomorrow at the tender age of 30!!my grandad is now nearly a 100 years old imagine!!hes had to wait nearly a 100 yeaaaars!!!!!!madness!!

[nick sussex]

You may aswell aim high .

Could 40c be hit ? 

That would be an astonishing record , and not out of the question .

[A.J]

any chance of some proper model discussion as opposed to reams of posts saying the same thing (i.e tomorrow's hot temps)...there are other threads for current weather, guess the hotspot etc!

[johnholmes]

The thread title is

hot spell beckons but then what?

Obviously the last part is of little interest to most it seems, fair enough I suppose

[Stevetynant]

and it could be a truly historic event so perhaps a little latitude on this one occasion perhaps

[danm]

1 minute ago, Stevetynant said:

and it could be a truly historic event so perhaps a little latitude on this one occasion perhaps

Agree. And much of it is still model related as we’re using the short range model output to try and hone in on potential max temps tomorrow. 

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

and it could be a truly historic event so perhaps a little latitude on this one occasion perhaps

So long as posts regarding tomorrow's temperatures are in relation to the model output, I fail to see what the issue is. Do people honestly expect weather enthusiasts to not been excited about and want to discuss an historic event?

If people do have a problem with it, they should report comments to the mods for review instead of writing comments that take the conversation more off topic.

Latest ICON and GFS still showing 36'C and 35'C as the absolute maximums. Surely the higher resolution models will have a better handle on it though. The GFS certainly always has temperatures too low and the update to it seems to have made no difference. You'd think they'd have worked on that issue.

Edited July 24, 2019 by MattStoke

[Methuselah]

The GFS 06Z, for Saturday, ties in quite well with our NW local forecast: 24 hours' worth of thundery rain...We do most definitely need it! Much more comfortable almost everywhere, by then, too.

   

[knocker]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Did it tie the overnight low record? 23.9 at Manston...

No

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

So long as posts regarding tomorrow's temperatures are in relation to the model output, I fail to see what the issue is. Do people honestly expect weather enthusiasts to not been excited about and want to discuss an historic event?

If people do have a problem with it, they should report comments to the mods for review instead of writing comments that take the conversation more off topic.

Latest ICON and GFS still showing 36'C and 35'C as the absolute maximums. Surely the higher resolution models will have a better handle on it though. The GFS certainly always has temperatures too low and the update to it seems to have made no difference. You'd think they'd have worked on that issue.

There is a difference between getting excited and people having to be issued with incontinence pads  And in any case endless repetition can easily turn what is very interesting into a bore fest

And discussing an historic event is best left to after when all the data is available

Edited July 24, 2019 by knocker

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

45 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You may aswell aim high .

Could 40c be hit ? 

That would be an astonishing record , and not out of the question .

I honestly never thought I would see the day. This is big news. All the holes do miraculously seem to be lining up for it, with the timings of the warmest uppers in place for peak heating, and the appropriate wind direction for local topographical effects in certain places. Such as the fens, N Kent and NW London. 

Im pretty sure there’s a thread somewhere in this forum discussing whether 40c would ever be achieved! 

I think a 34c is even possible for today, despite the GFS showing 30c. Cambridge is hitting that currently as we speak, and it’s not even midday! 34c is even remarkable in its own right in this country. Just shows the ridiculousness of this heatwave! It doesn’t seem down to this earth!