Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes Saturday looks very showery in places, it takes a while to clear as well, looks to improve some on Sunday though. 

[Captain Shortwave]

The breakdown is certainly a strange set up. Friday we are the front across central areas but there isn’t really any rain, or much cloud either so temperatures still doing very well with eastern coasts fairing best with temperatures.

Saturday sees rain develop and push north westwards but the position isn’t nailed, this rain continues throughout the weekend and if anything might edge westwards which allows eastern counties (especially the south east) to dry up and in any sunshine could see temperatures become very warm again.

Next week is a blocked mess, good luck with that.....

[Methuselah]

It looks like next week could see temps not far off the mid-twenties; and, hopefully, we'll have seen some decent rainfall, by then. Who knows?

Anywho, I do try my very best to stay on topic, mods...but, come on peeps, model-watching is something of a marathon, is it not?

Cue snickers!

[Porto]

UKV showing 39c in a very WIDE area. Insane

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Loifeless

[knocker]

The gfs and ecm 5-10 anomalies. Of interest to me is the developing intense TPV over northern Russia which,with the help from energy in the Atlantic, facilitates the ridging of the European high north west and the formation of the high cell over Iceland.

Edited July 23, 2019 by knocker

[shaky]

18 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

UKV showing 39c in a very WIDE area. Insane

 

Downgraded a bit for central midlands!!12z had more 36 and 37s now its 34 or 35!!but a more apparent area of 39s now on the border of east anglia!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quite an erratic mean... What I will say is it starts warm and ends quite warm... Make up your own minds for the rest... After a brief dip in pressure, it looks like recovering later. 

[Frosty.]

Well I don't know about you guys but I'm on plume watch!!!!!!!...not for this week but for early August!!!!!!!!...and the GEFS 12z is showing interest!!!!!!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

Synops max temps today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[Skullzrulerz]

33 minutes ago, shaky said:

Downgraded a bit for central midlands!!12z had more 36 and 37s now its 34 or 35!!but a more apparent area of 39s now on the border of east anglia!!

Downgrade you say? Because a chart is showing one less degree in a area? Heatwave still there yes?

Regardless however it will still be a strong and very hot heatwave for most of England and the beloved all time record of 38.5c may not stand for much longer.

Hopefully everyone will take care in this weather in the next few days if need be and not careful can be dangerous

Could the 40c be breached somewhere? it's a good chance

 

 

[Methuselah]

G'night all...

My day on the farm has caused my eyes to go all blurry; the heat we are enjoying (or suffering?) has wiped me out!

I just hope the models (but, more importantly, the weather!) will make Thursday's annual game of footy with the grandkids just a wee bitty more tolerable?

Good luck...to all those hoping for a thunderstorm tonight!

[matty007]

23 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Downgrade you say? Because a chart is showing one less degree in a area? Heatwave still there yes?

Regardless however it will still be a strong and very hot heatwave for most of England and the beloved all time record of 38.5c may not stand for much longer.

Hopefully everyone will take care in this weather in the next few days if need be and not careful can be dangerous

Could the 40c be breached somewhere? it's a good chance

 

 

About a 50% chance. You only need to add a degree to get there. 

Most likely around Maidstone or Sevenoaks. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by matty007

[HighPressure]

4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

About a 50% chance. You only need to add a degree to get there. 

Most likely around Maidstone or Sevenoaks. 

You mean in my Garden

 

[matty007]

I would also say that the likelihood of a reload is very high. The models seeming to go for a reduction in temps but still very warm and rather settled and then many are hinting at a reload. I personally think that this upcoming  plume is certainly not the last one we'll see. 

All in all it's turning into a very nice Summer indeed. Not quite as consistent and settled as last year, and the June was very poor, but since then it's been very dry, warm, and we are getting extreme plumes thrown in to. A very good Summer all told, especially if August turns out to finally deliver, which is looking fairly likely. 

[Man With Beard]

Right here we go for the first record attempt - the warmest ever UK night since records began. Current record 23.9C. I think we may just miss out, but it will be close. Lots of places still around 27C right now, which is fairly close to what the hi-res models expected for 10pm. 

ARPEGE eventually sees a low of 23C in some spots of the SE:

AROME also looks like a 23C

EURO4 above 22C in London

So close but not quite is present thinking. Perhaps a better chance on Thursday night.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Right here we go for the first record attempt - the warmest ever UK night since records began. Current record 23.9C. I think we may just miss out, but it will be close. Lots of places still around 27C right now, which is fairly close to what the hi-res models expected for 10pm. 

ARPEGE eventually sees a low of 23C in some spots of the SE:

AROME also looks like a 23C

EURO4 above 22C in London

So close but not quite is present thinking. Perhaps a better chance on Thursday night.

Tomorrow night may be close too. But Thu may be best chance.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The gfs and ecm 5-10 anomalies. Of interest to me is the developing intense TPV over northern Russia which,with the help from energy in the Atlantic, facilitates the ridging of the European high north west and the formation of the high cell over Iceland.

Would you suggest that this might indicate tropical maritime zonality, Malcolm?

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Right here we go for the first record attempt - the warmest ever UK night since records began. Current record 23.9C. I think we may just miss out, but it will be close. Lots of places still around 27C right now, which is fairly close to what the hi-res models expected for 10pm. 

ARPEGE eventually sees a low of 23C in some spots of the SE:

AROME also looks like a 23C

EURO4 above 22C in London

So close but not quite is present thinking. Perhaps a better chance on Thursday night.

That was set in August 1990 yes?. i think we have a very good chance. 

 

[Don]

56 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Well I don't know about you guys but I'm on plume watch!!!!!!!...not for this week but for early August!!!!!!!!...and the GEFS 12z is showing interest!!!!!!

Enough this week!!  That aside, I think after an indifferent start, a hot summer has now kicked in with more of the same for August.  I think if the all time record does not go this week, it stands a good chance of going in August?

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Would you suggest that this might indicate tropical maritime zonality, Malcolm?

I would suspect a phasing of the two airmassess Pm and Tm Chris

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Enough this week!!  That aside, I think after an indifferent start, a hot summer has now kicked in with more of the same for August.  I think if the all time record does not go this week, it stands a good chance of going in August?

While I think another plume will happen, I personally don't think you could wish for better synoptics than we currently have. The hemisphere temp is at it's absolute maximum now. 

If you're going for the most extreme heat, now is the perfect time. Everything has come in line.  

[Snowy L]

21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Right here we go for the first record attempt - the warmest ever UK night since records began. Current record 23.9C. I think we may just miss out, but it will be close. Lots of places still around 27C right now, which is fairly close to what the hi-res models expected for 10pm. 

ARPEGE eventually sees a low of 23C in some spots of the SE:

AROME also looks like a 23C

EURO4 above 22C in London

So close but not quite is present thinking. Perhaps a better chance on Thursday night.

Looks like theres no chance of that happenning tonight. Looks like the models have failed to take into account a sea breeze affecting east anglia. Temperatures are already down to 22-24C in the area where the models thought would stay above 23C tonight.

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Looks like theres no chance of that happenning tonight. Looks like the models have failed to take into account a sea breeze affecting east anglia. Temperatures are already down to 22-24C in the area where the models thought would stay above 23C tonight.

Something really weird on the last 2 AROME runs though - temperatures actually increasing during the night in parts of the SE. Back to up between 28C and 29C in parts of Kent! Here's 1am - and still above 26C in many cities according to this. 

I will certainly be checking these stats in the morning because they seem rather crazy!

[MattStoke]

Aperge looking even hotter. 39’C more widespread.

[Porto]

Switching to the Maximum T2 on Meteociel and this view, shows a little 40c, hidden by the top right bar. Make that of what you will

EDIT: Added a better view

Edited July 23, 2019 by Loifeless