Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Big daddy 49]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

New potential at T+261? Another plume building? It really wouldn't surprise me!

  

Yes Please!.COYS.

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

UKMO has 37’C around the Wash, North London and North Kent on Thursday.

Think it had the same figure this morning but more towards london!!when the ukmo is forecasting such highs you.know we are in a serious heatwave here!!

[Frosty.]

Add the Gem 12z to the hot list ...looking beyond this heatwave, the Gem shows plenty of warmth in and around the mid 20's celsius range!!!

[matty007]

44 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This has to be the most insane chart I've ever seen.

We're not just talking about breaking the all time record in one or two spots, but across many parts of England, temperatures WIDELY 36-38c with local spots of 39c.. if this model is correct then surely we are looking at a potential hyperlocal 40c..

40c could be breached yes. I would say about a 50% chance now. 100% chance of the July record going, and a 70% ish chance of 38.5c being breached also. 

It really is a fierce heatwave and I have never seen charts showing 39c two days out, it is actually amazing. 

I was in the Colchester area today and it reached 34c. You only need another 4.5c to be equalling the all time record, and 6c to reach 40c. Also, bear in mind, London will be a couple of degrees hotter than Colchester at least. Quite doable with two days warming to go. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by matty007

[Frosty.]

GEFS 12z mean for thursday..not bad is it!!!

Friday more pleasant but still very warm further east.

[johnholmes]

Roll on the weekend for me!

Incredible watching the charts and waiting to see if all time records do go in various places. But it really is far too hot for me but enjoy it folks that do like such heat. BUT beware the sun even when more normal temperatures arrive, skin cancer takes decades at times to show up!

 

[matty007]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Roll on the weekend for me!

Incredible watching the charts and waiting to see if all time records do go in various places. But it really is far too hot for me but enjoy it folks that do like such heat. BUT beware the sun even when more normal temperatures arrive, skin cancer takes decades at times to show up!

 

While I am a heat lover, even I can appreciate it will be too hot for some. Approaching 40c really is extreme for the UK. I expect a lot of people will be pulling sickies on Thursday (especially in London area). Can't say i blame them. 

Me, I will have a day off, as I work in a catering van, and it would likely be over 55c including cooking temperatures. I'm just going to soak up the sun and enjoy this upcoming monumental day. I have never worn sunscreen in my life, even when I went to Thailand. My skin has never burned for some reason and I don't seem to feel temperatures like others do. But yes, I would urge most people to wear the strongest sunscreen possible and limit sun exposure. 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

While I am a heat lover, even I can appreciate it will be too hot for some. Approaching 40c really is extreme for the UK. I expect a lot of people will be pulling sickies on Thursday (especially in London area). Can't say i blame them. 

Me, I will have a day off, as I work in a catering van, and it would likely be over 55c including cooking temperatures. I'm just going to soak up the sun and enjoy this upcoming monumental day. I have never worn sunscreen in my life, even when I went to Thailand. My skin has never burned for some reason and I don't seem to feel temperatures like others do. But yes, I would urge most people to wear the strongest sunscreen possible and limit sun exposure. 

Although you will get just as burnt at 20C as you would at 40C as long as the sun exposure is identical. What’s more important is keeping hydrated and staying out of direct sunlight where possible.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Me, I will have a day off, as I work in a catering van, and it would likely be over 55c including cooking temperatures. I'm just going to soak up the sun and enjoy this upcoming monumental day. I have never worn sunscreen in my life, even when I went to Thailand. My skin has never burned for some reason and I don't seem to feel temperatures like others do. But yes, I would urge most people to wear the strongest sunscreen possible and limit sun exposure. 

You look quite tanned in your pic

Wouldn't blame anyone pulling a sickie on Thursday. Insane heat forecast across a wide area. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, matty007 said:

While I am a heat lover, even I can appreciate it will be too hot for some. Approaching 40c really is extreme for the UK. I expect a lot of people will be pulling sickies on Thursday (especially in London area). Can't say i blame them. 

Me, I will have a day off, as I work in a catering van, and it would likely be over 55c including cooking temperatures. I'm just going to soak up the sun and enjoy this upcoming monumental day. I have never worn sunscreen in my life, even when I went to Thailand. My skin has never burned for some reason and I don't seem to feel temperatures like others do. But yes, I would urge most people to wear the strongest sunscreen possible and limit sun exposure. 

better than 15 degrees and rain, affects my chest at this time of year it it's wet and cool

[matty007]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Although you will get just as burnt at 20C as you would at 40C as long as the sun exposure is identical. What’s more important is keeping hydrated and staying out of direct sunlight where possible.

This is true. It's all down to UV levels. 

I can sit in direct sun for 6 hours without a hint of burning or redness. Despite me being white British. Then again, the doctor always said I have a lot of melanin in my skin. It's not that i'm careless, I just have never had a need to wear sunscreen. I just don't burn.

However, a close friend of mine burns so easily even in low UV and frequently gets cancerous skin tumours. Some people have to be very careful indeed. it's all genetics 

[Methuselah]

The GEFS 12Z ensembles are...really rather spiffing -- wot, wot,wot?

       

Bloody marvellous day, today -- should you like lots of hot air, old bean!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Mapantz]

Back to the models, please?!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Great Post by Jon Holmes, I've worked outside most of my life and tan easily, still ages you though!! Let folks make up there own minds in that respect... Fantastic ecm.... I'm sure that heat is a tad further West again.... In the words of Bernard Matthews.... Bootyfull. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Mattwolves

[ICE COLD]

How strange the ECM 12z has updated fully already . It’s usually not complete until 19:55 ?  it starts to lose the extreme uppers it’s unbearable. Low pressure getting close around day 6 .

Edited July 23, 2019 by Mapantz
Removed some comments

[I remember Atlantic 252]

aren't all those charts 00Z?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

How strange the ECM 12z has updated fully already . It’s usually not complete until 19:55 ?  it starts to lose the extreme uppers it’s unbearable. Low pressure getting close around day 6 .

That's strange... Its only at day 6 with meteociel. 

Ps... Those charts are 0z ice.... You gerrin a little overly excited mate...

Edited July 23, 2019 by Mattwolves

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

That's strange... Its only at day 6 with meteociel. 

Aye, think they are 12Z actually, never known it complete now

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

aren't all those charts 00Z?

It’s says ECM 12z top left but has the time stamp 00z in the top right . Who knows mate . 

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z looks hot on thursday..bring the damn  second wave already!!!! 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm is only out to day 7.... Here it is.. 

[knocker]

The ecm is looking exceptional over the weekend

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yikes... Check out day 9 on ECM.. Some serious heights over Greenland.... 1040mb...

Signs of it warming up again though by the end of the run... Everytime I see those Greenland heights I panic.... Early June... Oh no... But it doesn't spell the end of our warmth... Far from it. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Mattwolves

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Exceptional for who? 

Persistent heavy rain down the spine of the country.

[Mapantz]

Can we please stay on topic?