Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Man With Beard]

Arpege 12Z up to 39C for Thursday. 

[Polar Maritime]

 Yes MWB..39c now showing on the UKV for the S/E on Thursday also..

Edited July 23, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

My main concern with that chart would be my fear for remaining arctic ice. That looks as brutal as it can get, and we are already beating what 2012 saw at this current time. Not only record breaking temperatures here, but I also think the record is seriously under threat for sea ice minima. 

Yes the albedo effect! Normally we would transfer 80% of the heat back into space with widespread ice cover... Take it away and 90% will be trapping on earth.. I've only just realized the record uk temp was set at 38.5c and the July record set at 36.7c at Heathrow 2015.. Dohhh.... Well I feel certain the July record is going on Thursday... If clear skies are the order of the day on Thursday, and certain areas escape the shower risk tonight.... Then surely 38-40c has now got to be a 50-60% chance.. The next 24hrs could be crucial, either way folks isn't it just great to be a part of this amazing scenario... And we have counted it down for the best part of 6 days. How often can we say that!!! Amazing. 

[kold weather]

Amazing image PM, rare you see 39c modelled it has to be said!

Also one of the most widespread areas of 36-37c I've ever seen, truely a large scale heatwave.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Yes latest Arpege showing 39c

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Arpege 12Z up to 39C for Thursday. 

Any charts mate!!!i dont think we gona see a heatwave upgrade like this at short notice again for a very long time!!for the last 48 hours each run has upgraded the heat time and time again when normally it goes the other way and moderates!!make the most of this folks!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Yes latest Arpege showing 39c

Right over my house aswell, literally! 

With the wind in the right direction here (SSE) temps really can skyrocket. Due to a mini foehn effect Spreading across the flat landscape of the fens, from the relatively hilly land of the Home Counties just to the S.

Hunstanton and sheltered parts of the W Norfolk coast would also be in danger of getting stupidly high temps. 

Ready, steady, cook! 

Edited July 23, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Right over my house aswell, literally! 

With the wind in the right direction here (SSE) temps really can skyrocket. Due to a mini foehn effect Spreading across the flat landscape of the fens. Hunstanton and sheltered parts of the W Norfolk coast would also be in danger of getting stupidly high temps. 

Ready, steady, cook! 

That chart is showing 37 degrees for leicester which is about 40 odd miles away from you!!i never ever thought we would get such a roasting!!lol!!we are gona be on par with temps you see in the middle east

[Panayiotis]

By the looks of things, the Peterborough area could get the highest recorded temperature this week, models consistently showing temps to be highest in that area and also the far SE corner

[Frosty.]

Whichever chart you look at for thursday it's very hotttttttttttttt...I think the record from July 2015 is going..it may even be Heathrow which does it again!!!

 

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

 Yes MWB..39c now showing on the UKV for the S/E on Tuesday also..

I assume you mean Thursday

Edited July 23, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Very well spotted.

[Man With Beard]

42 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

 Yes MWB..39c now showing on the UKV for the S/E on Tuesday also..

It's just astonishing! 37C almost up to the Humber and right down to the coast in Brighton! How did the UKV do with today's temps? 

[Frosty.]

Pardon the pun but hot off the press i give you the ukmo 12h..yes it's very hot for the next few days, especially thursday and notice the warm uppers are in no hurry to leave our eastern / northern shores!!!!!

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[HighPressure]

I just wondered what odds we could see the all time top temp record go on Thursday? Its starting to look odds on the July record will go.

[Methuselah]

Well, if you add 4C to today's maxes (which given the vast expanse of 20C uppers) a large area could expect to be around the 38C mark!

   

I never thought I'd live to see the day!

[Decemberof2010]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's just astonishing! 37C almost up to the Humber and right down to the coast in Brighton! How did the UKV do with today's temps? 

Yes. Surely an abundance of local records are in danger? That chart is pretty close with a 35c here in Leeds! MO have 33c forecast so who knows. And just to make it better, we get our birthday off at my work, which just so happens mine is Thursday!!!

[Methuselah]

New potential at T+261? Another plume building? It really wouldn't surprise me!

  

[Met4Cast]

This has to be the most insane chart I've ever seen.

We're not just talking about breaking the all time record in one or two spots, but across many parts of England, temperatures WIDELY 36-38c with local spots of 39c.. if this model is correct then surely we are looking at a potential hyperlocal 40c..

[cheeky_monkey]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if you add 4C to today's maxes (which given the vast expanse of 20C uppers) a large area could expect to be around the 38C mark!

   

I never thought I'd live to see the day!

Until it happens that is? ..you never can tell..last August we were all set to break the all time heat record in Edmonton and surpass 38c for the first time ever..right up to the day its self..only for a very subtle wind direction shift and smoke from forest fires that meant we never got above 35c and the record was safe for another year.

[Frosty.]

+23 uppers (850's) for the SE on thursday according to the Gfs 12z operational with temps of 36c but again i'm seeing 37-38c 99 /100f as a strong probability!!!..and some big thunderstorms being sparked by the intense heat and humidity plus imported from france...a fun few days ahead!!!!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Until it happens that is? ..you never can tell..last August we were all set to break the all time heat record in Edmonton and surpass 38c for the first time ever..right up to the day its self..only for a very subtle wind direction shift and smoke from forest fires that meant we never got above 35c and the record was safe for another year.

I dont think a forest fire is gonna ruin our chances in blighty though cm! Personally I can't find a fly in the ointment right now... So to speak... Perhaps widespread showers could have cooled the ground off enough to scupper a degree or 2...but looking at the latest radar images,this risk is Diminishing in most Eastern and SE areas... Looks like through the Midlands and more especially N/NE England later tonight... All systems go as it stands.. 

[kold weather]

Both the GFS and the ICON have been both too low and far too restricted in the region of highest temperatures today, plenty of 32c reports and some 33c as well in a fairly stretched out area, the ICON was almost 3C too low across the board, and the GFS varied too low between 1-2C.

ARPEGE was a hair too high but far closer than the GFS/ICON as it had predicted a widespread area of 32-34c, far better forecast than the GFS which restricted 30C+ to the M25.

[chris55]

Just relaxing in the garden after a very hot day at work! The breeze is unbelievably warm and the clouds are building ahead of the potential thunderstorms tonight. Fingers crossed we get one head on ?.

Really lovely to experience the extremes of summer, as it is to do the same in winter. 

The extreme heat Thursday looks just a tad to far east to break any records here in Stroud but looks mad elsewhere.

Enjoy or loathe this spell wherever you are (depending on your preference) the weather plays a massive part in all our lives and this spell is one to remember. 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by chris55

[danm]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Both the GFS and the ICON have been both too low and far too restricted in the region of highest temperatures today, plenty of 32c reports and some 33c as well in a fairly stretched out area, the ICON was almost 3C too low across the board, and the GFS varied too low between 1-2C.

ARPEGE was a hair too high but far closer than the GFS/ICON as it had predicted a widespread area of 32-34c, far better forecast than the GFS which restricted 30C+ to the M25.

Completely agree. The heat has been more widespread today than predicted by some of the models. A huge swathe of England and east Wales has exceeded 30c. 

This image demonstrates it nicely:

 

[MattStoke]

UKMO has 37’C around the Wash, North London and North Kent on Thursday.