Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The thunderstorms and general shower risk looks most prominent running out of Wales through the Midlands and more especially towards the NE.. And wowzers the heat on Thursday is much more widespread. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, there's very good support for Friday to be hot across the eastern / southern half of england, not as hot as thursday but still a good chance of 30-31c which is still hot!! 

[Derecho]

One thing that can easily go under the radar in these situations is the notable variations in weather patterns elsewhere. The 06z builds a strong arctic high and persists with it all the way through...

Also take note of the temperature anomalies at the moment, something going on which could be a good omen in a few months time, can anyone guess? 

This summer should also dispel the myth that northern blocking is a guarantee of a poor summer. 2012 this isn't...

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

The ECMWF 00Z is like a thunderstorm factory this morning. Aside from the chances of thundery weather these next few days, the model shows further Low Pressure systems running in from the South-West engaging with some warm air.

The 850 hPa air isn’t as warm as it would be this week, but that Low could still spark off some further thundery surprises next week.

This all seems to depend how well the model is handling those Low(s) next week. How much of a Southerly track they have and the speed at which some of these Lows could move in from the South-West or West (also the amount of ridging that could get thrown up ahead of these Lows) could affect whether further episodes of warm, or very warm/hot and thundery weather occur. 

As that usual saying goes, the weather does as it pleases. Plus, probably not worth getting too far ahead considering there’s some very warm or hot and, at times, stormy weather for some to look forward to these next few days.

[Met4Cast]

UKV has hottest things up in quite dramatic fashion 

Widely into the high 30s.. and the 39c is back!

[Frosty.]

Here's the ICON 6z..Thursday scorcher, heat record should go, Friday hot further s / e and  warm uppers persist through the weekend further e / ne... 

As for today, 35c is possible for the SE, 32-33c tomorrow and then 36-38c on thursday, still around 30c on friday further east / southeast...shouldn't forget the intense humidity, hot nights and thunderstorm potential tonight!

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

UKV has hottest things up in quite dramatic fashion 

Widely into the high 30s.. and the 39c is back!

34 IMBY ..

Pretty sure that would be July record , ir very close.

[Summerstorm]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

34 IMBY ..

Pretty sure that would be July record , ir very close.

35.2 is the highest held here since 1990 at Hawarden and is the record for Wales don't think we'll be getting close to that though anywhere in Wales as the heat is further East.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Summerstorm

[huntso]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Arpege 06 hrs run has max temps widely into the 40s across much of northern and ne France on Thursday . Highest there is 44c .

Upto 38c around London . Amazingly the 40+ gets right into the Low Countries.

A very good chance that the UK can break it’s record .

I'm off to Germany tomorrow just over the Belgian border and they are predicting 40c on Thursday which would be their all time high.

The models from the German Met office seem to be going for high pressure keeping the lows over the UK and moving NE

Edited July 23, 2019 by huntso

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some intense heat building over the UK right now and just look to our South in France... 100f being breached. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking at the extended mean from ECM, not checked the gfs yet... It shows an increase in temperature moving into August... The mean had been around 7.5-8c, and its now moved up into the range 10-11c..is this a trend? Also noticing the continuation of hot plumes from the boys down SW. August could be about to shape up in a completely different manner to what we have become accustomed to lately. 

[Frosty.]

Looking into early August I wouldn't rule out another plume, the GEFS 6z certainly hasn't !!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm astonished at how far north the +20C isotherm gets on some of these runs, has it ever even been to Scotland before?  UKMO 0z at T72 and ICON 6z at T66:

And prolongs the heat into Friday widely.

This caught my attention too, usually hard enough to get the +15 850s here and a chance of the +20 as you say, does anybody know the warmest 850 temps to reach up here @Weather-history ?

   

[Man With Beard]

Another useful short range model is now out to Thursday 1pm - the EURO4. It shows 37C degrees for Kent.

At just 1pm!!!

And this is another model that usually underdoes temperatures! 

I know nobody likes to mention it - but surely 40C is under threat? 

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Another useful short range model is now out to Thursday 1pm - the EURO4. It shows 37C degrees for Kent.

At just 1pm!!!

And this is another model that usually underdoes temperatures! 

I know nobody likes to mention it - but surely 40C is under threat? 

Mate am telling you the uk record is going on thursday without fail as long as there not too much cloud!!jersey has just hit 35 degrees!!cambridge approaching 33 already!!

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE ensembles out for the 6z, here peak temperature 4pm Thursday, as before the charts are minimum, 25%, 50%, 75% and maximum of the probability distribution:

I think you can add a degree or so on to these locally, so I would still think there's a good chance of the July and all time records going...

Current conditions today (3pm) indicate the models' tendency to underplay these things, we've a 33 already at Northolt:

[kold weather]

51 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Another useful short range model is now out to Thursday 1pm - the EURO4. It shows 37C degrees for Kent.

At just 1pm!!!

And this is another model that usually underdoes temperatures! 

I know nobody likes to mention it - but surely 40C is under threat? 

Yes 40c is possible, more likely a rounded up if it's going to happen, but perhaps more noteable is the large area at 34-36c.

Anyway ARPEGE has done very well today, pretty close to spot on from what we can tell from the 3pm temperatures. Bodes well for a record attempt.

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ARPEGE ensembles out for the 6z, here peak temperature 4pm Thursday, as before the charts are minimum, 25%, 50%, 75% and maximum of the probability distribution:

I think you can add a degree or so on to these locally, so I would still think there's a good chance of the July and all time records going...

Current conditions today (3pm) indicate the models' tendency to underplay these things, we've a 33 already at Northolt:

2'C higher than the GFS predicted temperatures for today, with the GFS predicting 36'C for Thursday.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's pretty amazing to even see temps getting close to 20c in Lerwick.. And 30c on the coast of Hastings... Almost becoming like a Mediterranean island this week.... Some great temps from arpege... Big cluster of 36c...the usual caveats apply... Namely... Add a couple or so degrees.. 

[knocker]

The Modis image a little earlier and the the 1400 UTC UK chart

Moving on from now and after a hot day it will be a very warm night in many areas. particularly the south east. where it will be close to the night min record

meanwhile the cold front associated with the low north west of Ireland is slowly edging in from the west but it will be preceded this evening and overnight by an area of instability moving up from France in the form of a couple of troughs which will bring some heavy shower/sstorms into the south west by 2100 this evening.

Just out of interest a quick look at the midday soundings for Camborne and Brest which both show medium level instability (some nice CAA in the boundary layer at Camborne so wouldn't want to estimate the surface temp from the 850mmb)

Back to the area of serious convective activity. This will track north east through the rest of the evening and overnight before clearing northern Scotland by around dawn.and within this there is the likelihood of some intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning and hail in the mix

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

It gives me great pleasure to post the ICON 12z for thursday showing the second and stronger wave of heat..looks a hot one doesn't it.. Enjoy.

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[swebby]

4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

One thing that can easily go under the radar in these situations is the notable variations in weather patterns elsewhere. The 06z builds a strong arctic high and persists with it all the way through...

............

This summer should also dispel the myth that northern blocking is a guarantee of a poor summer. 2012 this isn't...

 

Hi Quicksilver, in regards to HLB not leading to a poor summer? I look at that 2nd 500mb chart and that looks to my untrained eye like an impending wash out?

[Methuselah]

Well peeps, that was a 'warm' day on the farm! So what does the future (according to the GFS 06Z) hold?

   

   

Far too early for blethering about my 'expectations' for Autumn, I think...Like a living computer-model I cannae yet forecast what's going to happen... the month after next!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Ed Stone
Addled.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, swebby said:

Hi Quicksilver, in regards to HLB not leading to a poor summer? I look at that 2nd 500mb chart and that looks to my untrained eye like an impending wash out?

It does indeed look unsettled but you can still get nothern blocking and hot air coming up from the south.

Northern blocking simply increases the frequency of cool air outbreaks from the arctic over lower latitudes, however if that is somewhere like western Russia then that is more likely to coincide with a block to the east and warm weather here 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

One thing that can easily go under the radar in these situations is the notable variations in weather patterns elsewhere. The 06z builds a strong arctic high and persists with it all the way through...

Also take note of the temperature anomalies at the moment, something going on which could be a good omen in a few months time, can anyone guess? 

This summer should also dispel the myth that northern blocking is a guarantee of a poor summer. 2012 this isn't...

 

My main concern with that chart would be my fear for remaining arctic ice. That looks as brutal as it can get, and we are already beating what 2012 saw at this current time. Not only record breaking temperatures here, but I also think the record is seriously under threat for sea ice minima.