Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Looking like a real dogs dinner as we head into the weekend and beyond. All sorts of weird and wonderful charts appearing. No consistency at all. Somewhere will probably end up getting absolutely soaked at some point, though it’s still hard to say exactly where the boundary will lie at this range.

it'll be here no doubt, Saturday looks shocking

[Man With Beard]

Morning all, well Thursday continues to look hot like never before, the ARPEGE with a fairly wide area now between 36 and 37C, with spots up to 38C. The ECM, if one adjusts raw data in the usual way, is similar on temperatures though centers the highest temperatures in the SE corner. Other output also suggests 38C as a ball park figure. And it's far from a SE only affair now, with the ARPEGE suggesting 34-35C even in South Lancashire. 

But will the July record even last until then? An interesting development on both AROME and ARPEGE - a small area of 36/37C around Great Yarmouth tomorrow afternoon now - but will there be a recording station in the zone? 

[Summer Sun]

This will come as a massive shock to the system if correct temps dropping 10c or more in 24hrs between Friday and Saturday northern Scotland the hot spot holding onto the upper 20s with some warmth also holding on in the east

The peak still looks to be Thursday with a chance of 100f/37.7c somewhere in or around London

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, well Thursday continues to look hot like never before, the ARPEGE with a fairly wide area now between 36 and 37C, with spots up to 38C. The ECM, if one adjusts raw data in the usual way, is similar on temperatures though centers the highest temperatures in the SE corner. Other output also suggests 38C as a ball park figure. And it's far from a SE only affair now, with the ARPEGE suggesting 34-35C even in South Lancashire. 

But will the July record even last until then? An interesting development on both AROME and ARPEGE - a small area of 36/37C around Great Yarmouth tomorrow afternoon now - but will there be a recording station in the zone? 

Throwing the latest UKV into the mix.

[Polar Maritime]

UKV daily temps for rest of the working week.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Throwing the latest UKV into the mix.

huge area of 37c+ temperatures there, plenty of scope for 39-40c if such a chart came off in the real hotspots.

[Polar Maritime]

24c 850's pushing into the S/E Thursday..

[cheese]

18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Throwing the latest UKV into the mix.

The iPhone weather app shows 34C in Leeds on Thursday.. but going by that chart we could possibly reach 35C. 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

The iPhone weather app shows 34C in Leeds on Thursday.. but going by that chart we could possibly reach 35C. 

33-34'C here. The local all time record is 32.9'C....

Don't know a lot about that model but been told its held in high regard by the Met Office.

[knocker]

Given the uncertainty not bad agreement between the ecm and gfs 5-10 anomalies. Of course enough to make the detail difficult to pin down at the moment

[NApplewhite]

48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

it'll be here no doubt, Saturday looks shocking

I agree - Saturday looks like being a washout across England and Wales with lots of cloud and rain around and only average temperatures 

Edited July 23, 2019 by NApplewhite
Update

[NApplewhite]

I can see us returning to the early = mid June 2019 type weather with an active jet stream and lots of rain and below average temperatures! i am worried about the outlook beyond Saturday! Very unsettled with torrential rain and possibility of flooding. 

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC sat image

Edited July 23, 2019 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts have had to go, If we could please move away from Meto forecasts/weather stations/and what one wants or doesn't/holiday plans.. And back to what the Models are showing as per thread title, Thanks all.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

I agree - Saturday looks like being a washout across England and Wales with lots of cloud and rain around and only average temperatures 

well on 00Z depends where you are, but 14 degrees modeled here is below average

[Gordon Webb]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

well on 00Z depends where you are, but 14 degrees modeled here is below average

yeah and a good 15c to 20c down on just 2 days earlier would be quite a turnaround

[A.J]

I will be soooo glad when thursday is over so we can get back to sensible model discussion....lol.......It's been like obsessive compulsive disorder in here the past couple of days with the fixation in the majority of posts for high temperatures!

short term modelling (overnight suites) continues to show a risk of strong possible severe thunderstorms tonight over the west country, spilling up into northern England, but as mentioned elsewhere, storms may well start to decay as atmospheric profiles become saturated thus limiting lightning potential as we move into the second part of the night....Wednesday will be all about how much detritus will be left over which will inhibit temps if said storm remnants linger....Thursday will be hot and sunny for most, with an increasing risk of surface based (initially) storms breaking out over CS England moving north (which may well inhbit surface temps due to attendant cloud cover)with elevated imports perhaps brushing the SE overnight thursday...Friday seems a decent but cooler day for the majority (still very warm in the SE) as a complex area of low pressure anchored off Ireland throws a series of fronts across the country from west to east....Saturday becomes interesting as the fronts stall out for a while over the spine of the country which increases the risk of heavy thundery rain for many given the marked boundary between cooler, fresher air to the west and risidual heat and convective energy to the east, certainly a feature to watch the next few days

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE enembles 18z on the peak temperature 4pm Thursday, here showing the remaining uncertainty over this, charts are minimum, 25%, 50%, 75% and maximum over the probability distribution:

Theres still quite a range there, I would argue the bottom end doesn't fit with other model output though.  I'm minded to lop the bottom 25% off as implausible, and taking into account other output this morning, probability of breaking the all time record currently sits about 35%.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational, Friday could hit 32c 90f across the SE following the 37c 99f on thursday!!!!!

Just a few days ago there was support for cooler / fresher air right across the uk by wed night or thursday morning at the latest!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

I'm astonished at how far north the +20C isotherm gets on some of these runs, has it ever even been to Scotland before?  UKMO 0z at T72 and ICON 6z at T66:

And prolongs the heat into Friday widely.

[Leo97t]

beginning to wonder if we can get the heat to stay long enough on Friday to get a second record attempt....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

I can see us returning to the early = mid June 2019 type weather with an active jet stream and lots of rain and below average temperatures! i am worried about the outlook beyond Saturday! Very unsettled with torrential rain and possibility of flooding. 

How can you draw that conclusion an a few morning runs! We would need to be stuck in a certain pattern for many days and with all the models painting an unsettled picture moving forward, to come to that assessment. The Ecm extended ens out to the first week of August show a mean temp of 10c,with the pressure graph averaging around 1013mb...there are numerous runs of above and below though, which again indicates no real clear signals of any one pattern dominating. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational there is a chance of 37-38c across parts of London and the SE on thursday and low 30's celsius on friday..saturday cooling down to the low to mid 20's c and then warmer again on sun / mon with temps back into the upper 20's c further s / se.

[nick sussex]

Arpege 06 hrs run has max temps widely into the 40s across much of northern and ne France on Thursday . Highest there is 44c .

Upto 38c around London . Amazingly the 40+ gets right into the Low Countries.

A very good chance that the UK can break it’s record .

[Mike Poole]

A look at the storm potential overnight, with the first wave predominately hitting the south west, here ARPEGE 6z CAPE and precipitation at T18:

Precipitation at same time on HIRLAM: