Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Gives a maximum temperature of 36'C in London.

Yes, but given conversation earlier in the thread a correction east is now no bad thing if you are interested in a new UK temperature record.  Notwithstanding that, should be plenty of hot weather over swathes of the county over the next 3 days!

[Porto]

As others have said, 36c shown on the GFS for the London area. Add the typical 1 or 2 to get 37/38c should mean a July record broken, overall might be a bit more difficult. However both the BBC and Met have 37c forecasted on their website, so we'll see.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

There’s been some real horror show summers even in the se . Admittedly it often does get the best of the summer weather .

In terms of the hot debate. I think it depends where you live .

If I was still in the UK I’d go as follows .

23 to 25 warm

26 to 29 very warm 

30 to 32 hot 

33 to 36 very hot 

36 + extremely hot 

Some parts of Essex are semi-arid with less than 500mm of rain per year - about 1000mm here is the average.

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, Singularity said:

With these west / northwest adjustments, another possibility builds; that the strong anticyclone holds steadier across Scandinavia this weekend.

The Atlantic jet versus the anticyclone, who will win?

FV3 12z among the strongest of the set with the anticyclone, but who knows, maybe it's a step ahead with the trend. Or maybe not .

Really interesting corrections for Thu-Fri regardless.

Yes - westward corrections are what we usually see...and this scenario would lead to a longer spell of heat for the east (thank goodness I live in the west...) and also the potential for some high rainfall totals in the west. It is the potential for trough activity running into this hot and slow drifting block that is catching my eye. The forecast heat is going to be very uncomfortable for some - lookout for your pets....

[Porto]

Tomorrow might actually give us a good indication of what was modelled vs what actual temperatures might be like for Thursday. It'll be a similar setup (albeit cooler), but even the Met and BBC have 34/35c predicted, whereas the models are sitting a bit lower (ECM at 30c, GFS, ICON and GEM 31c, and the others for 32c/33c mostly). If those 34/35c values turn out right, we may have to consider adding up to 4c to charts on Thursday (just by the ECM difference). 

All speculation on my behalf though, its usually never that simple. For all I know tomorrow could break the July record instead and Thursday ends up being around the same.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Loifeless

[Cheshire Freeze]

One of the strangest charts I've seen. Modelling now wants us sat under a broad frontal boundary at the weekend

Possibility of flooding issues if this came to pass

[Porto]

GFS 00z showing around 37c again in the London area for Thursday. 1 or 2 degrees on top could still apply to go up to 39c.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking at the latest charts, from Thursday onwards right into the weekend, Eastern England could see a constant conveyor belt of storms exiting the Low Countries. This plume now doesn’t look to be shifting in any hurry at all!! Very unusual to see indeed.

Then would you believe it, there’s sub -5 uppers flooding into scandi on the eastern periphery of the plume on the continent!! 

What a mad run! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here's your 38C- on the 0z Arpege

[MattStoke]

The Aperge is going for a good chance of the all time record going. It brings in 24’C uppers, resulting in a maximum surface temperature of 38’C! 

Edited July 23, 2019 by MattStoke

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Looking at the latest charts, from Thursday onwards right into the weekend, Eastern England could see a constant conveyor belt of storms exiting the Low Countries. This plume now doesn’t look to be shifting in any hurry at all!! Very unusual to see indeed.

Then would you believe it, there’s sub -5 uppers flooding into scandi on the eastern periphery of the plume on the continent!! 

What a mad run! 

GEM also has -5 uppers coming around the back of the Scandi HP...at the end of July! 

Crazy!

There must be some serious warmth in the Arctic

 

[ancientsolar]

What in the madness is the 00:00 GFS .. it takes our current High Pressure from Thursday.. lasts until Friday... but makes a come back on Sunday and into Monday potentially pushing temperatures into the low 30s again. 

Then it gets pushed out by an almost identical Low like the one we have coming this Thursday, if that makes westward corrections too... we could be looking at 16-18 uppers in the South again. possibly pushing the temperatures 32-35 in the South.. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

What in the madness is the 00:00 GFS .. it takes our current High Pressure from Thursday.. lasts until Friday... but makes a come back on Sunday and into Monday potentially pushing temperatures into the low 30s again. 

Then it gets pushed out by an almost identical Low like the one we have coming this Thursday, if that makes westward corrections too... we could be looking at 16-18 uppers in the South again. possibly pushing the temperatures 32-35 in the South.. 

 

Then autumn sets in towards deep FI. Something for everyone! 

It's not just the GFS though. Look at the GEM and the stunning N blocking shown

This is either sea ice or solar minimum related (or maybe a bit of both).

Edited July 23, 2019 by CreweCold

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and North atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK surface chart

There is a fair bit of cloud around at the moment with mist in many west and southern areas and still the odd bits and bobs of rain over the western Isles.But apart from some areas in the west it should clear to become a very warm, hot in central and the south east of England, day

But through this evening and overnight a couple of troughs track north from France and an area of thundery activity will effect the south west in the early evening and move north east through the night effecting an area north west of a line Bristol > Humber. There could well be some quite intense storms with localized heavy rain in this. The south east will miss this and here it will be a very warm night

Any storms should clear quite early leaving another clear and hot day in the east, perhaps reaching 35C in places, but the cold front associated with the low south east of Iceland has moved east so perhaps more cloud, and certainly not as warm, in western regions. And out in the Atlantic the new upper trough has merged with our resident one and a new surface low and associated fronts is situated WSW of Cornwall

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the upper trough to the west re-orientates initiating a further burst of WAA from the south and thus the hottest day of the week, and perhaps any other week, beckons This only applies to the southeast as the surface low is now west of Ireland and the associated cold front preceded by a trough are edging in from the west so cloudier in western regions with the possibility of thundery outbreaks.

.

By Friday the combined influence of the energy distribution has forced the European ridge NNW as the upper trough becomes negatively aligned over the UK. On the surface this means that the surface fronts struggle east across the UK introducing much cooler are with some showers, perhaps thundery, in most areas but with the east/south east possibly staying warm/hot

The movement of the troughs and the quite intense high cell continues on Saturday as the surface fronts finally clear the east coast but not before a quite wet day .

You will note I haven't attempted to be specific vis max temps because 1) this is above my pay grade and 2) I have a feeling it will be covered adequately later

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

No real change up to Thursday, any showers on Thursday look isolated and forecasting them will be difficult as the heat on offer is borderline unprecedented. The models do however suggest the chance that eastern areas could see 30C on Friday as the front struggles to make it across the UK, more cloud but still some spells of sunshine mixed with some thundery downpours. 

Saturday looks a problem with the front still there, but not with heights falling rapidly, so the risk of some heavy rain across central and eastern parts of England and Scotland and some very suppressed temperatures to go with this. 

Longer term - All I can say is model confidence will remain very low at four days out and beyond, we are seeing an extremely blocked pattern emerge that will be very hard to model correctly.

[ancientsolar]

 

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

No real change up to Thursday, any showers on Thursday look isolated and forecasting them will be difficult as the heat on offer is borderline unprecedented. The models do however suggest the chance that eastern areas could see 30C on Friday as the front struggles to make it across the UK, more cloud but still some spells of sunshine mixed with some thundery downpours. 

Saturday looks a problem with the front still there, but not with heights falling rapidly, so the risk of some heavy rain across central and eastern parts of England and Scotland and some very suppressed temperatures to go with this. 

Longer term - All I can say is model confidence will remain very low at four days out and beyond, we are seeing an extremely blocked pattern emerge that will be very hard to model correctly.

that model is showing a 33 in the East on Friday  quite incredible if it pulls it off ... even more so .. NE Scotland at 29  

Edited July 23, 2019 by ancientsolar

[knocker]

Because of the ongoing energy battle there is much uncertainty moving on over the weekend so suffice to say that by midnight Tuesday the resilient European ridge has disrupted the west/east trough conduit and created another cut off upper low to the south west

[Weather-history]

Forget about the heat, how about an early taste of autumn.....

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Weather-history

[knocker]

This morning's fax updates Wed > Thurs. The shallow unstable low over northern France is back I notice

Edited July 23, 2019 by knocker

[MattStoke]

UKMO looks similar to the Aperge in terms of the extent of low to mid 30's on Thursday. It has a maximum temperature of 38'C over North Kent.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

 

Aye 384 chart is ugly, but is August by then

but dreading all this rain we're due, especially on Sat

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Here's your 38C- on the 0z Arpege

More significant is the heat over the low countries - the Netherlands and Belgium records of 38.6 and 38.8°C would be obliterated. Interestingly in contrast to the SE UK seemingly recent increasing warmth, these records date back to the 1940s (23/08/44 and 27/06/47 respectively).

Edited July 23, 2019 by Interitus

[I remember Atlantic 252]

flirting with another plume/heat spike? never know, it's a Tuesday

[Methuselah]

Okay then, before I trundle off for a day on the farm...the GEFS 00Z ensembles. Is the control onto something?

   

   

So, it looks like a cooler run than of late...But, should the worst come to the worst (and we breach the 40C barrier)...I'll see y'all on the 'other side'!

[mb018538]

Looking like a real dogs dinner as we head into the weekend and beyond. All sorts of weird and wonderful charts appearing. No consistency at all. Somewhere will probably end up getting absolutely soaked at some point, though it’s still hard to say exactly where the boundary will lie at this range.