Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Something to keep an eye on for Thursday.. UKV suggest showers/thunderstorms moving in to the Southeast. If that comes to fruition and comes in slightly earlier, it may affect max temps.

 

so cloudy for most Thursday.? For heaven sake ☹

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

According to the op it stays very warm... 

I concur, even into next week..it surpasses my wildest dreams, no cool green snot within sight!!!!!

Edited July 22, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mapantz]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

so cloudy for most Thursday.? For heaven sake ☹

Calm down!

It's only a couple of charts with more possibilities. It doesn't mean that it will happen.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

so cloudy for most Thursday.? For heaven sake ☹

I doubt anything will happen until very late in the day, if not overnight.

[Stuie]

So after this week, what are the thoughts going forward? The 850`s settling down to what early 20 degC and pleasant for most?

I fly to Cordoba tomorrow and never experienced 40+ degs but in the scheme of things, bit like a chilli, once you get to super hots, they all hurt the same.

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Stuie W

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

According to the op it stays very warm... 

Could you post your very warm charts as this is what I have

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not sure where it’s getting those storms from , it has them coming out of northern France . Meteo France have it dry , for that region.

It’s more of a dry line in the afternoon which blows up over eastern England late. Rather than imports per say.

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Calm down!

It's only a couple of charts with more possibilities. It doesn't mean that it will happen.

Additionally the charts show total cloud cover and not effective cloud cover, if that is hazy sunshine however then it wouldn't impact temperatures much... hence why the temperatures are still into the 30s quite widely.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It cools down quite considerable amount to average for the weekend (indeed its a AWFUL weekend for E.A, with 1 inch of rain and temperatures of about 16-19C) but once that eases off and we get back into the weak ridging, things warm up nicely again to between 24-28c, so more than good enough and probably wouldn't be going anywhere fast either.

Decent area of 32C+ on the ECM this run for Thursday, even if the peak heat is a little more stunted.

Yeh I'm a little out with the timing, it's warming up a tad next week..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Could you post your very warm charts as this is what I have

I was just going off the uppers from the Ecm op. I stand corrected... Perhaps 20-23 in favoured spots

[Coopsy]

Midday Thursday....interesting Skew T chart...could produce storms that restrict temps 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I was just going off the uppers from the Ecm op. I stand corrected... Perhaps 20-23 in favoured spots

Probably mid 20's c..warm enough for most and certainly above average..more warm or very warm weather next week too, and humid with a further risk of thunder and showers with sunny spells.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Probably mid 20's c..warm enough for most and certainly above average..more warm or very warm weather next week too, and humid with a further risk of thunder and showers with sunny spells.

Why I'm bothering with this I've no idea

Edited July 22, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Probably mid 20's c..warm enough for most and certainly above average..more warm or very warm weather next week too, and humid with a further risk of thunder and showers with sunny spells.

That's what I was thinking Karl... 25c to me comes under very warm and 27+ as hot... Perhaps some of us have different definitions of hot. Out of the showers and in the sunny spells I would have thought it would feel... Well..... Almost spring like....

Edited July 22, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, knocker said:

Why I'm bothering with this I've no idea

Yes it shows around 20c knocker! But correct me if I'm wrong, we could add several degrees to those numbers in any sunnier breaks... Obviously with a good deal of cloud and showers... High teens.. 

[northwestsnow]

Paul, will there be a  thread for thunderstorm potential, really hoping the warm temps will trigger some classics!!

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

so cloudy for most Thursday.? For heaven sake ☹

I think the white is the sunny stuff here, not the other way round

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

I think the white is the sunny stuff here, not the other way round

With the front being modelled further west, I doubt cloud cover will be an issue in the east.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes it shows around 20c knocker! But correct me if I'm wrong, we could add several degrees to those numbers in any sunnier breaks... Obviously with a good deal of cloud and showers... High teens.. 

For a start my original comment was a general comment for the whole of the UK and secondly I was merely  quoting what the ecm is indicating.not what may be the case in certain circumstances

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean at T72 very much supportive of the op run re the uppers:

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Paul, will there be a  thread for thunderstorm potential, really hoping the warm temps will trigger some classics!!

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92028-storms-and-convective-discussion-25th-june-2019-onwards/page/47/?tab=comments#comment-4062243

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's a decent mean.. Things improving next week... And it remains warm, signs of a gradual cooling by the later frames though, but still pleasent. 

[Stonethecrows]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's what I was thinking Karl... 25c to me comes under very warm and 27+ as hot... Perhaps some of us have different definitions of hot. Out of the showers and in the sunny spells I would have thought it would feel... Well..... Almost spring like....

Baffles me are some people seem to assume that this tiny island of ours should expect temps of 30° every summer and heavy snowfall every winter. Reality is as you say 25° is very warm and  27+ is hot for our neck of planetary woods.

[Frosty.]

Indeed, decent Ecm 12z ensemble mean, fantastic mean for most of this week!!!!!!!!!!!..at day 10 it looks like a north / south split with lower heights to the NW and the azores ridge nosing in close to the south...enjoy this week though..it's a classic!!!!!

Edited July 22, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, decent mean, fantastic mean for most of this week!!!!!!!!!!!..at day 10 it looks like a north / south split with lower heights to the NW and the azores ridge nosing in close to the south...enjoy this week though..it's a classic!!!!!

Agreed Karl, perhaps tentative signs of that cooler air spreading SE. But like you say a NW/SE split looks a good call moving forward.... We await plumegate 3...