Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Frosty.]

Loving these westward corrections / adjustments now compared to the progressive eastward shift a few days ago!!!!!!!!!!!

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A slightly different point here, but the cold front now appears to stall across the Eastern side of the UK on Friday, so temperatures are no higher than were predicted under clearer skies (still mid to high twenties). Of course two things come from this, the threat of thunderstorms along that front Thursday night into Friday and indeed Saturday. The other would be that the front may never arrive in the east and fizzles out somewhere across the spine of the country. Not out of the question.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, and now GFS attempting to bring the warm uppers back in through sunday :-D

To be honest I’ll be happy when this heatwave clears off from here . It’s vile already , 34c , high humidity , humidex value 43 .

Pity anyone who has to use the London Underground , I remember some horrendous days travelling in the heat .

I know this is a silly question but do they have any air conditioning yet on the carriages . It’s been years since I used it .

Back to the models . If you keep dry conditions then a good chance of some records going .

The set up is excellent for UK heat lovers , perfect flow off a scorching north France .

[The PIT]

Yes it seems that the Atlantic push is now being reviewed at short notice and we may actually stay in the hot spell a bit longer than shown at the moment.

Edited July 22, 2019 by The PIT

[knocker]

As mentioned in previous posts the role of east European trough should not be forgotten

[nick sussex]

Meteo France further upgrade to temps . 58 depts  now on orange warning .

Temps widely 37c to 41c in those areas . And some areas hitting 43 c .

They update again in the morning , but expect Thursday to be the hottest of the week.

Edited July 22, 2019 by nick sussex

[Captain Shortwave]

17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ARPEGE for Thursday (not yet updated in UK view) - look at the distribution of heat - 37C as a max but 36C in Birmingham, 34C in Manchester - looks a little ambitious compared with other output but this is the period when this model starts to trump the others...

 

Here is the UK view

Interestingly, it is very reflective of the Metoffice thoughts from their earlier forecast. Also worth noting the dramatic increase in maxima for Wednesday across East Anglia, in particular areas which often see temperatures capped in normal heatwave conditions.

35C possible across this area.

So potential maxima then;

Tuesday - 34C Usual spots (eg Heathrow)

Wednesday - 34/35C - Norwich potentially

Thursday - 37C but possibly higher with mid-thirties widespread and as far north as the Midlands.

[northwestsnow]

GFS operational ushers in August in fine style ! (FI i know).

[danm]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To be honest I’ll be happy when this heatwave clears off from here . It’s vile already , 34c , high humidity , humidex value 43 .

Pity anyone who has to use the London Underground , I remember some horrendous days travelling in the heat .

I know this is a silly question but do they have any air conditioning yet on the carriages . It’s been years since I used it .

Back to the models . If you keep dry conditions then a good chance of some records going .

The set up is excellent for UK heat lovers , perfect flow off a scorching north France .

Deep tube lines (central, northern, Victoria, Piccadilly, Bakerloo, Jubilee) still not air conditioned. The just below surface lines (district, Hammersmith & City, circle, metropolitan and large parts of the London Overground have walk through, air conditioned carriages). Not looking forward to my tube journey on Thursday! 

Back to the models, westward corrections so far this afternoon bringing areas a bit further west into the fray for possible mid 30s. A real risk the July and possibility of the all time record being broken on Thursday. Also looking like Friday could stay hot in the east if these corrections continue! 

Edited July 22, 2019 by danm

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z has also backed further west..there's now a good chance that at least further south and east, Friday could be much warmer than was indicated yesterday!!!...Thursday looks smokin hot!!!...just think back a few days, some models were showing cooler and fresher from the west by wednesday or thursday at the latest!!!!

Edited July 22, 2019 by Jon Snow

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Deep tube lines (central, northern, Victoria, Piccadilly, Bakerloo, Jubilee) still not air conditioned. The just below surface lines (district, Hammersmith & City, circle, metropolitan and large parts of the London Overground have walk through, air conditioned carriages). Not looking forward to my tube journey on Thursday! 

Back to the models, westward corrections so far this afternoon bringing areas a bit further west into the fray for possible mid 30s. A real risk the July and possibility of the all time record being broken on Thursday. Also looking like Friday could start hot in the east if these corrections continue! 

Can’t you pull a sickie ? 

No way I’d be hitting the underground in that heat again . Re records if the favoured areas miss  any showers , so dry right through and sunny on Thursday then I’d put it at a 70% chance.

 

[Singularity]

With these west / northwest adjustments, another possibility builds; that the strong anticyclone holds steadier across Scandinavia this weekend.

The Atlantic jet versus the anticyclone, who will win?

FV3 12z among the strongest of the set with the anticyclone, but who knows, maybe it's a step ahead with the trend. Or maybe not .

Really interesting corrections for Thu-Fri regardless.

[matty007]

1 hour ago, danm said:

Not sure if it’s just my eyes, but that seems to show 38c over London. 

Yes, 38c in the Kent areas 

[matty007]

3 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Ominous? Strange word for a one off day of record temps, sounds like you're predicting the end of days!. It's Interesting, noteworthy and i'll agree it's not a record we want to be seeing broken but hardly ominous lol

I was referring to the likely hottest part of the upcoming plume coming in the same area as the one in 2003. Around Faversham. 

[knocker]

Moving towards what the anomalies have been indicating?

[mb018538]

Just thought I’d throw in that gfs turns very nice into August a little bit lost in the current melee!

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Moving towards what the anomalies have been indicating?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Doesnt  really match that? NOAA still showing +ve heights over Greenland, that chart is strongly negative?

[Derecho]

Wow the GFS ensembles are far slower at pushing the hot air east. The OP is actually a lot more progressive then the ensemble suite that has been shown so far. Here is the OP on Saturday evening for example.

And here is the control and a few other ensemble members.

  

 

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Doesnt  really match that? NOAA still showing +ve heights over Greenland, that chart is strongly negative?

I wasn't suggesting it matches exactly but perhaps moving towards. And that NOAA chart covers a much longer period and does show a couple of weak vortex lobes and trough running south east from Greenland to the UK, albeit with some positive anomalies around

And to honest I wasn't actually thinking of NOAA but the EPS from this morning

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by knocker

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Also, it is a record I want to see broken, and this is by far our best chance. 

I want to see how hot the UK can get. Bring it on. 

In theory the June plume had temperatures that would have roughly been in the 41-42c mark at the surface had we not had that stupid ENE undercut.

Anyway models still slightly adjusting westwards brining the more severe heat westwards with it. Increasingly becoming a more widespread heatwave.

Most models still showing a Max of 35-38c, and most have widespread 30c now as well.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Confidence at even four days away is very low. The jetstream seems to be returning back to a very sluggish phase.

I guess two things to note;

1) The front has a real possibility of stalling over the UK with the atmosphere destabilising in situ, this could produce a lot of rain in some areas. Areas east of this (if this exists) could remain hot and humid.

2) The following Atlantic trough looks rather weak and there could be a very quick route where we return to very warm or hot conditions if that next low sinks and becomes cut-off to our south west. 

Here is a head-scratcher, the mean 850s for Friday afternoon.

Yes, that is 18C across Eastern England.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z certainly ends on a high note!

  

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

*Once again Netwx-MR has 38c for London on Thursday.

[nick sussex]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Crazy upgrades and backing of the heat in earlier time frames!!didnt expect this much change at such a short time frame!!friday looks like its going to be another hot one for england with temps around 27 or 28!!!ukmo goes west at 72 hours and 96 hours!!!gona enjoy my 2 runs in the extreme heat and they both fall on 2 of the hottest days this week which is tuesday and thursday?

You mean you’re actually running in that heat ! Yuk ! At least do it in the morning or better still bin it and put your feet up ! 

Anyway now that we’re in the day 3 range it’s unlikely we’ll see a u turn on the heat for Thursday .

The modeling is normally very good at that range , now it’s a case of chasing the record for heat lovers .

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

*Once again Netwx-MR has 38c for London on Thursday.

What is quite interesting is the models have quite a spread of where those hottest temperatures are going to be, some are nearer S.Midlands, whilst some are London region.

Regardless all models have expanded the area with 30-35c quite considerably.