Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[knocker]

This morning's updated fax charts for Thursday have the twin cold fronts about 100 miles further west which would indicate eastern regions being very hot. But there is the added complication of the unstable low over northern France

[Methuselah]

And here, hot off the Press, is the current definition of 'heatwave':

 

Mods: please move, should you think it ought be in the 'other' thread; I couldn't make my mind up!

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here, hot off the Press, is the current definition of 'heatwave':

 

Mods: please move, should you think it ought be in the 'other' thread; I couldn't make my mind up!

Despite this....it’s now Monday, many areas will be above these boundaries for 4 days straight and we have no warnings out at all. Go figure.

[Met4Cast]

UKV now has 39c across the south-east on Thursday

[ancientsolar]

so we patiently wait for the 06:00 .. a new day breaks.. 

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

UKV now has 39c across the south-east on Thursday

Could see local records tumble, even if we miss out on the national one. Even as far north and west as here that chart has temperatures into the low thirties. I believe the record here is around 32'C.

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Could see local records tumble, even if we miss out on the national one. Even as far north and west as here that chart has temperatures into the low thirties. I believe the record here is around 32'C.

That chart has actually upgrades those temps more widely compared to the last update!!to think i could be seeing 35 or 36 in leicester!!scary stuff?

[Polar Maritime]

UKV shows plenty of heavy showers moving through Tuesday evening effecting the S/W at first then through the Midlands. NetWx-mr showing high ML Cape values so plenty of scope for thunderstorms.

[shaky]

Just checked icon 06z and its even further west!!normally everything sweeps east its the complete opposite this time!!

[Sweatyman]

Just now, shaky said:

Just checked icon 06z and its even further west!!normally everything sweeps east its the complete opposite this time!!

Keep em coming shaky!

[MattStoke]

ICON has the highest uppers (24'C) moving into far south eastern parts early to mid afternoon, the hottest part of the day.

[danm]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

UKV going for a scary 39c or so on Thursday on the 3z run this morning...

 

Insane. 39c there for London and parts of Kent. Wish me luck travelling on the tube that day....!

[Paul]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

How accurate does the ukv tend to be?? Can’t say I’ve got tons of experience in using it for predicted temps!

It's very accurate from what we've been seeing, and handles temperatures very well. But in the context of those sort of temperatures at this range, obviously confidence has to be pretty low at this stage. Especially with the added complications of thunderstorms and their associated cloud in the mix. 

[Leo97t]

any chance we can get a prediction thread competition opened 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Will look into it ?

[Methuselah]

There must be a good chance...99 if not 100F?

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Something for everyone the next couple of days.... Firstly a look at the potential storms tomorrow evening/night moving NE... they  could be severe!! But it looks at this stage the SE will be out of the firing line... This will aid those temps further E/SE on Wednesday, and has you can see by the chart we are into extreme territory!! My guess being 36-38c being hit in more than a few spots. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Guest]

Is it like an unwritten rule of model threads that once we start approaching record temperatures we instantly flip to quoting Fahrenheit  

Seriously though (in my best American accent) it appears as though there is an increasing probably our nations Captial will experience triple digit heat on Thursday

[SMU]

I think for me 40c is more of a landmark that the all time record- as when I was little the 30c mark was the landmark!!

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomalies pretty much as expected this morning. The main vortex lobe over northern Canada with a relatively strong westerly upper flow exiting south of this across the Atlantic above the ridging Bermuda High and abating somewhat as it reaches the trough in the east Over Europe the subtropical high is still quite amplified in association also with the trough in eastern Europe. This would suggest a changeable few days under low pressure but nothing particularly drastic in the woodshed and still temps above average in general

In the ext period any amplification will tend to dissipate leading to a fairly benign zonal flow which should not cause too many headaches with temps still just above average Last night's NOAA not adverse to this

[shaky]

Gfs also pushes heat further west and struggles to clear as quickly!!

[sunnijim]

Looking at the East SE bend to the flow one wonders looking at the UKv model just how extreme in terms of records there might be on the SE coast.

39c showing over Sussex and Kent.

No real sea moderation to the temps for some coastal parts the more East the flow.

Cool today here with sea mist on the SW fetch up the channel.

[knocker]

Perhaps associated with the upper fronts tomorrow

[Singularity]

 

It's subtle at +72, but the upper trough is slightly sharper, digging a tiny bit further south.

 

By +84, the difference is clearer when you compare with the southern coast of Portugal for example. 

Doesn't do a lot for the Thu temps, but the Fri temps are notably higher.

 

 

I always enjoy watching how minuscule variations amplify into significant differences, even at fairly short range.

 

Generally looking messy but on the warm side for the following weekend. 

Hard to draw many conclusions for the following week; a strong Kelvin wave crossing the Pacific suggests some Nino fightback, but the trade winds look a bit argumentative in the modelling, but those models tend to overdo the trades a bit. So I'm not convinced about any Nina-like tendencies.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Again the NetwX model hinting at 38'c along the Thames Estuary on its 06z run with 24'c uppers clipping the south coast.

 

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Again the NetwX model hinting at 38'c along the Thames Estuary on its 06z run with 24'c uppers clipping the south coast.

 

Any pics mate?

Edited July 22, 2019 by shaky