Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Man With Beard]

Well a strange irony on this forum - at the end of June, it was like mid-winter, with many including me salivating over the 850s charts, yet came to little more than a typical summer hot spell. Now we have genuine record breaking potential at just T108, and it's fairly quiet! Is there a sense of cry wolf going on?? 

As @Loifeless mentions, ECM maxes similar to previous runs. After usual adjustments to ECM raw data, we may expect the following maximums this week:

Monday 30C

Tuesday 34C

Wednesday 35C

Thursday 38C

Friday 30C 

However, the highest temperatures are dependent on the pattern not shifting any further east. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thursday is still 5 days away.. thats T+120 hours from midnight to midnight, we would never in winter look this far ahead so why do we in summer?   I can almost gaurntree that thunderstorm chances, temperature differences and surprises will happen from now till Friday.. With most of us going hmmm that didn't go to plan... 

 

It will be interesting to use live temperature stations across the UK day on day to see how the models (especially the high res) do on temperatures.. 

 

If you like hot and sticky weather though this week is yours... 

How often does the 20c isotherm come over us?? Is this 2 years on the trot?

 

 

[knocker]

I appreciate that it's of no general interest, as usual, but just to note three inches of rain in western Scotland and Cumbria over the next 24 hours

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well a strange irony on this forum - at the end of June, it was like mid-winter, with many including me salivating over the 850s charts, yet came to little more than a typical summer hot spell. Now we have genuine record breaking potential at just T108, and it's fairly quiet! Is there a sense of cry wolf going on?? 

As @Loifeless mentions, ECM maxes similar to previous runs. After usual adjustments to ECM raw data, we may expect the following maximums this week:

Monday 30C

Tuesday 34C

Wednesday 35C

Thursday 38C

Friday 30C 

However, the highest temperatures are dependent on the pattern not shifting any further east. 

Also @Man With Beard do models take into account UHI and also day on day "heat building" For instances if you have a day of 34c followed by a low of 25c SAY then the following day if conditions are similar do models take these factors into account?? I dont know... Heathrow concrete jungle is its own micro climate when it comes to this... Heathrow can be 2-3c higher at round 5-6pm than all the local stations as the heat pours back out of the concrete 

 

If the ECM is right then it does prolong the heat more so than the GFS does 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Also @Man With Beard do models take into account UHI and also day on day "heat building" For instances if you have a day of 34c followed by a low of 25c SAY then the following day if conditions are similar do models take these factors into account?? I dont know... Heathrow concrete jungle is its own micro climate when it comes to this... Heathrow can be 2-3c higher at round 5-6pm than all the local stations as the heat pours back out of the concrete 

 

If the ECM is right then it does prolong the heat more so than the GFS does 

I’m presuming it must take into account starting temperatures.

[mb018538]

ECM raw data has 35c in the SE on Thursday...still on a knife edge here with regards to the extent of the heat.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Again LP being overdone by the models. Very unlikely to be that deep or intense. This will go to the wire. 

oh i dont know, all that hot humid air interacting with cooler pm sourced air via the nearby low to our west is bound to add energy to the mix.  id have thought its perfectly feasible that the atlantic low will intensify and deepen as a result of this.

the noaa charts support a deepening trough too...... unfortunately

Edited July 21, 2019 by mushymanrob

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

oh i dont know, all that hot humid air interacting with cooler pm sourced air via the nearby low to our west is bound to add energy to the mix.  id have thought its perfectly feasible that the atlantic low will intensify and deepen as a result of this.

the noaa charts support a deepening trough too...... unfortunately

Not disagreeing with you there. Just think that the depth of the low is being overplayed, which is quite a common occurrence with these type of LPs.

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not disagreeing with you there. Just think that the depth of the low is being overplayed, which is quite a common occurrence with these type of LPs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

looking  at that things  could get a bit  wet between  60  -120  hr if the  gfs  is right!

[danm]

37 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

37c showing this morning for the S/E on the NetWx-mr for Thursday.

Crikey, that 37c is exactly my locale. Will be stifling! 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

Crikey, that 37c is exactly my locale. Will be stifling! 

Raw values too. Degree or two possibly on top of that.

[Methuselah]

The incoming heat and a rapid cooldown are the only certainties (I think) going by the 00Z ensembles...a cooldown to what is what I find interesting -- as there's a degree of variation, in 850s, following-on from July 27:

   

   

And, my guess for the ultimate max? Anywhere from 34 to 37C.

[MattStoke]

Latest ICON has the heat slightly further west on Thursday.

[Ice Day]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Well a strange irony on this forum - at the end of June, it was like mid-winter, with many including me salivating over the 850s charts, yet came to little more than a typical summer hot spell. Now we have genuine record breaking potential at just T108, and it's fairly quiet! Is there a sense of cry wolf going on?? 

I suspect it is MWB.  Over the last few weeks some very high temperatures have been forecast, the reality is it didn't quite deliver the extremes (record breaking) temperatures that were forecast, so maybe a bit of model fatigue has crept in (bit like late winter on here!).  That being said, what is being modelled for this week is still pretty extreme by UK standards.  I think we'd be unlucky not to see a 35c before the week is out (Gravesend probably the best bet).  It's not impossible that we'll see the 100F broken, but I would give it no more than 5% currently?

Time will tell.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Ice Day

[NTC]

I like the new Global Jetstream feature on here, it's about time there was a proper jet stream model that just does what it says and is easily readable.

 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest ICON has the heat slightly further west on Thursday.

Yup creeping towards the ecm there at 96 hours!!!gfs 06z will be interesting!!!

[mushymanrob]

surely increased cloud on weds/thurs will suppress temps.. away from the southeast/east anglia anyway. (that are more likely to be sunnier with higher uppers)

i AM a nimby... i dont care much what it is elsewhere, i care most for what im getting.

edit... suppress temps still 'hot' but not as high.. - mid - high 20's c instead of 30's c.

Edited July 21, 2019 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest ICON has the heat slightly further west on Thursday.

Indeed, a second pulse of heat spreading north all the way up the eastern side of the uk on thursday and overnight into friday!

 

 

Edited July 21, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

surely increased cloud on weds/thurs will suppress temps.. away from the southeast/east anglia anyway. (that are more likely to be sunnier with higher uppers)

i AM a nimby... i dont care much what it is elsewhere, i care most for what im getting.

edit... suppress temps still 'hot' but not as high.. - mid - high 20's c instead of 30's c.

There is still loads to be resolved even by Wednesday. Cloud cover impossible to call, although as you say, the further SE you are, the more chance you have of staying sunny. Even high level cloud won’t suppress temps that much.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 6z goes off script and throws this out at T108:

Just holding that low back a bit:

Edited July 21, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I found this pleasing from the Ecm 0z operational regarding friday!!!!!

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Well a strange irony on this forum - at the end of June, it was like mid-winter, with many including me salivating over the 850s charts, yet came to little more than a typical summer hot spell. Now we have genuine record breaking potential at just T108, and it's fairly quiet! Is there a sense of cry wolf going on?? 

As @Loifeless mentions, ECM maxes similar to previous runs. After usual adjustments to ECM raw data, we may expect the following maximums this week:

Monday 30C

Tuesday 34C

Wednesday 35C

Thursday 38C

Friday 30C 

However, the highest temperatures are dependent on the pattern not shifting any further east. 

I'm still here MWB

EC looks very very very hot in the SE thur into fri, the uppers are slightly higher than previous!

Thur could be a record breaker in the SE?

WOW Karl you posted the same chart at exactly the same time as me!!

Edited July 21, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

GFS6Z has the highest temps tomorrow morning across Lancs/Yorkshire - 22/23 degrees at 9am.

By tea time the warm air is well and truly in place across most of the country ..

spare a thought for NW Scotland in particular though ..

Edited July 21, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS6Z has the highest temps tomorrow morning across Lancs/Yorkshire - 22/23 degrees at 9am.

By tea time the warm air is well and truly in place across most of the country ..

spare a thought for NW Scotland in particular though ..

I imagine it will feel quite tropical tomorrow with the air being sourced from beyond the Azores, probably from the Caribbean originally?

[northwestsnow]

Midnight tue into wed on 6Z

Its very warm for many , i spot a 25 in London area!

Edited July 21, 2019 by northwestsnow