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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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A fresh thread as we head towards another (probably brief) hot, humid spell of weather. 

As ever, please keep your posts friendly & about the models in here!

Alternative Threads:
To chat more generally about the summer weather please head to the summer thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91676-summer-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/

For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

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Posted (edited)

The trough remaining quite influential as the amplification recedes according to the medium term mean EPS anomalies so portending changeable with N/S variations but temps still above average with the source of much of the upper across the southern states

8-13.thumb.png.0c0e8ed41b83ad4efae05d6819824e8b.pngindex.thumb.png.fee90b01c48a0d50c000c812af0ab61b.png

Edited by knocker

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Temperatures will fell hot next week no doubt however for me one of the main talking points is towards the middle of the week    The temp and humidity levels could well go through the roof  infact most models have temperatures during the night around 21c  add on the humidity levels it will feel closer to the  high 20s    Lots of people Zombified  for the morning commute.   

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Good post on the closed thread about the quick recovery after Thursday(isn) breakdown. Next weekend 26-28 July looking pleasant in the SE quadrant?

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is sensational for most of the week ahead, looks even hotter than yesterday!!!!..becoming hot and humid with hot sunshine and a growing risk of thunderstorms, summer at its best in my opinion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!👍🔥🔥🔥 

EDM0-72.thumb.gif.2860896e661abf24f61e93a0e828cd1a.gifEDM0-96.thumb.gif.5d689174c50af78ba57eca6eb3c9fd5d.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.518e3570a86d50a51eb778a85059688a.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.db15be9cb8a7e28a1335db302a946b34.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.55ef9d73634e26a5d591142d297e0897.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.cd3b0a665296fbf9cf85ab22412a3a34.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.b208ab7a386008036ba6c27e72058709.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.d4bc0213b7afc4a5ed91d859dbd337f7.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.e75f1566fffce62217c1243192722c31.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

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Just a little update on the extended ecm mean from the 0z...into August the 2nd.... The mean around 8.5c,remaining quite steady over several days... The pressure avarages out at 1014mb...and quite a few members push it to 1020 and higher... So not to bad really. 

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Here's an eye opening chart, for the early hours of Wednesday morning - temperatures at 4am showing 25c in north Wales, and not far from it in other places. Good luck sleeping in that!

warm-night.png

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 0z mean looks every bit as hot as yesterday regarding next week, those mean temps are astonishing and indicate somewhere could hit mid 30's celsius next week..stunning charts!!!!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

21_90_850tmp.thumb.png.30180ea4f6e062e6a4b4ca6f30a91a40.png21_114_850tmp.thumb.png.da8c6288b47ca9216fe9c4f57c719fd3.png21_138_850tmp.thumb.png.8dae758f94bb5d63d67d818cc32c1410.png21_138_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.c75edb5b460da8027a5712177986ff38.png21_162_850tmp.thumb.png.97df2d83a10dcb706c1d2463a2aac97e.png21_162_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.fe23eff98b23e6bef320b05b3d5bb3e2.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Paul said:

Here's an eye opening chart, for the early hours of Wednesday morning - temperatures at 4am showing 25c in north Wales, and not far from it in other places. Good luck sleeping in that!

warm-night.png

:shok:

Indeed; and while we obsess over potential daytime maxima, record-breaking nighttime minima may be more readily achievable, given the expected cloud cover?🤔

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Perhaps we should have another competition: guess what ludicrous temperature the Daily Express will predict?🤓

 

Edited by Ed Stone
I'm getting so excited, I'm putting words in the wrong order!

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

Perhaps we should have another competition: guess what ludicrous temperature will the Daily Express predict?🤓

 

Probably 40c - but so have loads on here, but do you question their claptrap as well?

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

:shok:

Indeed; and while we obsess over potential daytime maxima, record-breaking nighttime minima may be more readily achievable, given the expected cloud cover?🤔

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Perhaps we should have another competition: guess what ludicrous temperature the Daily Express will predict?🤓

 

Yep  Gfs 6z  going for 26c in London at 2am Thursday Morning   

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2 minutes ago, Craig84 said:

GFS 06z makes much less of the Atlantic push. The trough disrupts and drops further south drawing more heat up.

by next Thursday, this is the result....

 

 

EB19B12C-E101-4D14-AA83-1DB6CCB6592A.jpeg

Phwoar! What a scorcher!
This run highlights well the ongoing uncertainties regarding the strength of the jet stream next week though. Until that is resolved, we can't be confident on what will happen other than that it will be very warm for a few days at least.

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Slight difference from the run from 6 hours earlier, eh. Not banking anything on this until 24/48 hours, even then it can still swing round, this is the UK and north Atlantic after all.

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Aaaannnnd the gfs 06z now puts us into a serious heatwave next week and is very similar to the 12z ecm!!!get the rain out of the way today and theres no going back lol!!

Looking good shaky... Can I just say your optimism is outstanding... I look forward to your winter posts... 6z looking good, I have a feeling this is going to be played up and down quite a bit in the next few days. 

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Cape values

image.thumb.png.3a91515d6c1ea4cfec1e721c07495909.png

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GFS 6z is awful – if you dislike hot weather. 

Pushes the trough back into Biscay late next week and pumps up insane levels of heat.

Hot outlier, barely plausible. 

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10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  Gfs 6z  going for 26c in London at 2am Thursday Morning   

It's gone mad. It has 30c in London midnight Friday 26 July into Saturday 27 July. 

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To be taken as purely fun to look at  but look at these Humidity temps for  8pm Thursday night     Go to bed wake up 6 inches smaller 

image.thumb.png.e16575f537dc8b4ce5230ca1db03e10b.png

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The Gfs 6z operational is smokin hot next week, looking forward to the ensembles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥😜

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GFS 6z is quite reflective of the troubles models are still having in resolving the Atlantic trough. The ECM clusters at day 6 (next thursday) show this really well:
image.thumb.png.3d1be3808591965539c1154b57b0b19d.png

There are still quite a number of scenarios that keep the Atlantic a bit further back - thus leading to something more like the 6z or last nights ECM 12z run.

It should be stressed that the most *probable* outcome is still the Atlantic winning through, but until we get unanimous agreement on the position of the trough it will to-and-fro for a while longer. Tuesday and Wednesday look nailed on scorchers though.

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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Cape values

image.thumb.png.3a91515d6c1ea4cfec1e721c07495909.png

Posting a chart and captioning it BOOM is not my thing (too old and grey) but that chart is quite literally that for south wales, the values have gone off the scale!

Given the luck they have had with weather, i assume the green man festival been moved to next week?

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