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August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 17.1C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 43.3mm 65.5% of the monthly average.

I got to admit to be surprised how warm the month was at the beginning. However normally temperatures in the mid seventies would count as very warm to hot and normally forecasts would make more of it.  Also this cool down is quite notable for August it's actually -0.8C below average. So an unnoticed very warm to hot spell and a noticed cool spell which is being taken to represent the month so far as a whole.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.4 to the 15th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 17.4 to the 14th & 15th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.9C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.2 to the 16th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 17.2 to the 16th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.7C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 65.7mm 99.4% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP had reached 59 mm on 15th and added possibly as much as 15 mm on Friday 16th, but then GFS trends rather dry in the ten days ending 27th 06z, about 10-15 mm seems to be the grid average there, and maps for rest of August look moderately unsettled, so perhaps a further 5-10 mm there. It all adds up to 89 to 99 mm as the ballpark estimate.

Some warmer days again briefly but would agree that the guidance suggests CET will end up around 16.7 or so. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I still think a 17C plus end is very much on the cards owing mainly to the very warm start to the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
10 hours ago, The PIT said:

I still think a 17C plus end is very much on the cards owing mainly to the very warm start to the month.

Again! Bizarre year. All months from February onwards: big warm up in the final third of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield with the first pause of the drop. Still at 16.7C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

00 oz indicates little change here temperature wise the coming week. It also shows mainly just average temperatures to the end of the month for what it's worth. So the warm up has sort of disappeared.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.2 to the 17th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 17.2 to the 16th & 17th

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.1 to the 18th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 17.2 to the 16th & 17th

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Hadley EWP tracker at 73 mm after 17 days, added only about 1 mm on 18th, and GFS showing 20-30 mm the most likely amount to be added (ten days then 30th-31st appear fairly dry on charts). This would project towards a total close to 100 mm. I had posted that provisional early in the month but here it is again (with a few corrections).

Note _ The September contests will be open later today. 

EWP20182019AUG.xlsx

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.6C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 65.7mm 99.4% of the monthly average. GFS showing a hint of some possible hot weather this weekend which should start to push the CET back up again. Probably not high enough to make a huge difference but enough to push the CET zone to 17.4C to 17.5C. Of course this hot idea could all disappear in the Barbi smoke this weekend.   

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

wet Edmonton is at 14.8c to the 18th which is -2.1c below normal... the trend for below average months continue...August will finish below now which will make 7 months in a row below or well below normal here.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.1 to the 19th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 17.1 to the 18th & 19th

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

These are warmer charts for the end of the month than we've been seeing, extending the warm spell to almost the final day. If we assume CET is around 17.0 now (after 20 days), then an average for 21st-31st of 20 deg would yield an outcome of 18.1, 19 as the average would give 17.7, and 18 would produce 17.4. 

That is largely "before adjustments" but as 19 looks to be the over-under for this final period now, 17.4 to 17.7 appears to be the landing zone. My forecast pretty much guarantees it would be 17.4 if so. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.2e3ab8663606aeb30fa6ecb130d59aaf.png

 

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

  image.thumb.png.7b5f0922274ee6be74e70af08e460e13.png image.thumb.png.36b3f7b393f1be0b035a9deb38dcebab.png

A couple of cool days ahead before things warm up rapidly during the weekend, with daily records coming under threat from Sunday onward. This has the potential to be a significant hot spell. It may even threaten the warmest 5 day average ever set in the final third of the month, which was 21.7C from the 26th to the 30th, 1930.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Will make a total idiot of my prediction that i would 100% bust on the high side, now looks a good chance of busting on the low side!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 66mm 99.8% of the monthly average.

GFS suddenly decides that there is going to major hot spell on the way and since it tends to under do temperatures slightly it looks rather unpleasant conditions to come. If it's correct temps will be high enough to make a fair movement upwards again. So the month very warm first ten days, Next ten days cool enough to cancel out the first ten days. So are the next ten days going to be hot enough to melt us?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Funny that this August could be appreciably above average. The cool spell wasn’t as cool as I was expecting and Saturday marked the return of 20C+ temperatures here after a week of 18-19C. Looks like the remainder of the month should be warm, maybe even hot on a couple of days. Things really warm up just in time for my birthday.

Even rainfall hasn’t been excessive this month and we’re standing at 44mm, though I know this won’t be the case everywhere.

I was away last week anyway so missed the worst of the weather.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
18 minutes ago, cheese said:

Funny that this August could be appreciably above average. The cool spell wasn’t as cool as I was expecting and Saturday marked the return of 20C+ temperatures here after a week of 18-19C. Looks like the remainder of the month should be warm, maybe even hot on a couple of days. Things really warm up just in time for my birthday.

Even rainfall hasn’t been excessive this month and we’re standing at 44mm, though I know this won’t be the case everywhere.

I was away last week anyway so missed the worst of the weather.

23rd? unsure warmth will last for mine on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

23rd? unsure warmth will last for mine on the 1st

22nd. The very warm weather doesn’t arrive until the day after to be pedantic but it’s close enough, lol.

I turn 32 if you can believe it. That makes me a whippersnapper compared to some of the old fogeys on here. ??‍?

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
43 minutes ago, cheese said:

Funny that this August could be appreciably above average. The cool spell wasn’t as cool as I was expecting and Saturday marked the return of 20C+ temperatures here after a week of 18-19C. Looks like the remainder of the month should be warm, maybe even hot on a couple of days. Things really warm up just in time for my birthday.

Even rainfall hasn’t been excessive this month and we’re standing at 44mm, though I know this won’t be the case everywhere.

I was away last week anyway so missed the worst of the weather.

Suprised rainfall has been so low round here. We have had some very heavy showers and last Friday was very wet.

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