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Roger J Smith

August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Do we have a model forecast out to the 10th?

 

 

Your better off using Ensemble means products for 8-12 day period.

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Do we have a model forecast out to the 10th?

Going by the 12z GFS it looks like peaking close to 18.7C on the 4th, then dropping somewhere in the mid to high 17s by the 10th.

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1981-2010 CET averages and extremes 1772 to 2018

  

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2018 __ MIN 1772-2018 ___ Running CET extremes 1772-2018

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888 ________ 24.9 _ 1995 ____ 11.9 _ 1888

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822 ________ 24.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.2 _1822,1865

_03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 24.3 _ 1995 ____ 11.7 _ 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 23.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.0 _ 1865

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 22.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1865

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860 ___ 21.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1812

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 ________ 21.5 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892 ________ 21.3 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902 ________ 21.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 21.0 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881 ________ 21.0 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _1812, 1912

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912 ________ 20.8 _ 1975 ____ 12.6  _1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 ________ 20.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888 ________ 20.4 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 ________ 20.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 1912

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 ________ 20.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 ____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864_ 20.0 _1995 ____13.0_1912

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8.8 1864 ________ 19.9 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890 ___ 19.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919 ________ 19.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 ________ 19.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1804&2008__ 9.5 1890 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

  

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

__________________________________________________________________

The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. 

The most recent record maximum CET daily mean in August was on the 30th of 2008 (tied) and before that 9th of 2003. 

 

 

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18.1 to the 1st

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.1 to the 1st

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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18.4 to the 2nd

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.4 to the 2nd

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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18.5 to the 3rd

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.5 to the 3rd

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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Been away a very late 16.7 and 95mm and whatever punishment for such a late entry

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6 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Been away a very late 16.7 and 95mm and whatever punishment for such a late entry

I am afraid the most severe punishment of all - it won't count!

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I am afraid the most severe punishment of all - it won't count!

Ok better luck next time

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2 hours ago, jonboy said:

Ok better luck next time

In the EWP, have created a spot in the scoring where these too-late forecasts get a score so at least you can track where your forecast ends up scoring potentially against the field. It is not part of the official scoring for the contest but when I post August results in early September, look underneath the alternate "ultimate scoring" section which tracks scores against later-adjusted Hadley table entries. Missing a month in CET is less punitive as your average errors count for large fractions of the score. 

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18.8 to the 4th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

18.8 to the 4th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

If it finished on this value it would make it the 3rd warmest August on record - the weather has seemed just so so up to now !! 

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3 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

If it finished on this value it would make it the 3rd warmest August on record - the weather has seemed just so so up to now !! 

Has it? It's felt very warm and humid to me- no outstanding maxima but it's been noticeably warm overnight and consistently between 22 and 24C by day. If that continued it would indeed deliver a very high CET.

Edited by Scorcher

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22 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Has it? It's felt very warm and humid to me- no outstanding maxima but it's been noticeable warm overnight and consistently between 22 and 24C by day. If that continued it would indeed deliver a very high CET.

Agree, although the CET will take a hit towards mid month, will almost certainly finish above average though.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Has it? It's felt very warm and humid to me- no outstanding maxima but it's been noticeably warm overnight and consistently between 22 and 24C by day. If that continued it would indeed deliver a very high CET.

On average I believe the first week of August returns the warmest CET mean of the year. The start of the month has been warm largely due to high minima which is very easy to attain under cloudy skies at this time of year. The air has had a tropical maritime source to it, very high minima and slightly above average maxima - no heatwave by any means but warm.

The outlook shows more of a polar maritime influence at times, which will inject some cooler uppers and see minima return to average coupled with average and at times below average maxima, however, if we maintain a predominantly atlantic influence this month, we could see quite a decent CET but no real warmth - a CET that will disguise this, thanks to high minima and cloudy grey wet skies. I am not a fan of August, high minima does nothing for me, unless accompanied by warm/very warm dry sunny skies..

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11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

On average I believe the first week of August returns the warmest CET mean of the year. The start of the month has been warm largely due to high minima which is very easy to attain under cloudy skies at this time of year.

Checking the Hadley website. Mean minima is 2.5C above and maxima is 3.0C above.

Doesn't really back up what you have said here at all.

Also minima tends to get corrected downwards more than maxima.

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Looks like a fairly average fortnight temperature wise coming up but probably finishing comfortably above average thanks to the warm start and possible warmer interludes further down the line.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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18.7 to the 5th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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