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Roger J Smith

August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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17.0c for me please. 

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Going for 17.7 and 92.2 mm. Expect a third heat wave in the second half of August some time. Won't show on any charts until maybe the 8th to 10th. 

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6 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Going for 17.7 and 92.2 mm. Expect a third heat wave in the second half of August some time. Won't show on any charts until maybe the 8th to 10th. 

Agree with that but question is how far North it will affect, plus you can always get a 5 or 6c minimum right at the end of August so thats what stopped me going as high as you, unfortunately there was nothing unique available that i wanted by the time i had decided or anything close to it so i have had to go with one that loads of others already went for so the best i can do is come 4th or 5th or something like that, might have to start thinking about getting something up early in future but don't want to annoy you by keep changing my mind, last month was fine, i got what i wanted, suspect after last months heat, that is whats prompted everyone to go high again as last few years seem to be laden with strings of successive above average months.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I don't mind how many times people post or change their forecasts because I tend to compile the tables from back to front after figuring out that it's less work to start with the final guesses. Also the contest is for NW members to forecast, not for me to make up tables. A bit of chop and change is all part of forecasting (or it should be). So that's the priority. I have the forecasts to date in a bit of a table already, looks like consensus so far is around 17.2 and 75 mm. Will post the on time forecasts at midnight or shortly thereafter. 

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August has suffered a bit.

It's been 15 years since a warm August (2004: 17.6°C) and 2004 is the only August to be more than 1.0°C above the 1971 - 2000 baseline. 2016 is warmest at 17.0°C.

August 2005 - 2018 averages 16.0°C and is -0.2°C against the 71-000 average. -0.4 against 81-2010. 

Comparatively the previous 14 years averaged 16.9°C (1991 - 2004)

August has been a warmer version of what December had been before 2015.

I'll go with 15.8°C

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13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Going for 17.7 and 92.2 mm. Expect a third heat wave in the second half of August some time. Won't show on any charts until maybe the 8th to 10th. 

I'm also thinking this; I said mid-month for a plume in my previous post, but now I'm thinking sometime around or just after the 20th.

Edited by Relativistic

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Perhaps a fairly warm August this year for a change, but nothing especially so, despite we may well see another shortlived heat plume. I will go with 17.2 degrees. 

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17.3C and 90mm please.

Despite the heatwave now a distant memory, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another plume during August, with temperatures once again in the mid to high 30’s.  However, unlikely to be quite as fierce as that last week.

Edited by Don

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Table of entries for August 2019 CET and EWP contests

 

CET __ EWP ___ FORECASTER (order of entry) _________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry)

21.5 __200.0___ Lettucing Gutted (6) __________________17.0 __ 75.0 ___ B87 (2) ______________________

19.0 __ 20.2 ___ Polar Gael (1) ______________________ 17.0 __ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (16) ________________

18.5 __ 80.0 ___ virtualsphere (18) ____________________17.0 __ 85.0 ___ DR(S)NO (21)_________________

18.4 __ 29.2 ___ Chrisbell-nottheweatherman (5) ________ 17.0 __ 75.0 ___ EdStone (30, 13.5) _____________

18.1 __ 77.6 ___ CheesepuffScott (7) __________________17.0 __ ----- ___ sundog (41) ___________________

18.1 __ 78.0 ___ bobd29 (9) _________________________16.9 __ 75.0 ___ summer blizzard (24) ____________

18.0 __ 70.4 ___ brmbrmcar (23) _____________________ 16.9 __ 75.0 ___ Mulzy (45) _____________________

17.9 __ 20.0 ___ Big daddy 49 (17) ____________________16.9 __ ----- ___ Man with Beard (47) _____________

17.7 __ 92.2 ___ Roger J Smith (44) ___________________16.9 __ 77.0 ___ Timmytour (52) _________________

________________________________________________ 16.9 __130.0___ davehsug (L1-3) _______________

17.7 __ 90.0 ___ Born From The Void (46) ______________ 16.8 __ 60.0 ___ Leo97t (14) ____________________

17.6 __ 69.4 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather (19) ________________16.7 __102.0___ coldest winter (11) _______________ 

17.5 __ 75.0 ___ Jeff C (13) __________________________16.7 __ 96.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic252 (12) ______

17.5 __ 67.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (55) ___________________16.7 __115.0___ Norrance (32) ____________

17.5 __ 96.0 ___ Godber.1 (59) _______________________16.7 __ 79.0 ___ stargazer (25) ____________

17.4 __ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (35) _______________16.6 __ 70.0 ___ daniel* (42) ______________

17.4 __ 80.0 ___ Stationary Front (50) _________________ 16.6 __ ----- ___ Earthshine (49) ____________

17.3 __ 82.0 ___ emmett garland (10) __________________16.6 __ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (58) _________

17.3 __102.0___ stewfox (4) _________________________ 16.5 __ ----- ___ snowray (40) ____________________

17.3 __ ----- ___ Summer Sun (21) ____________________ 16.5 __ 72.0 ___ Reef (48) _______________________

17.3 __ ----- ___ Relativistic (34) ______________________ 16.5 __ 85.0 ___ J10 (57) ________________________

_________________________________________________16.5 __ 83.0 ___ Blast From the Past (L1-5) ___

17.3 __ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (37) __________________16.5 __78.8 __ 1989-2018 average

17.3 __ 66.0 ___ seaside 60 (51) ______________________16.4 __75.6 __ 1981-2010 average

17.3 __ 90.0 ___ Don (56) ___________________________ 16.2 __124.0___ SteveB (29) _____________________

17.2 __ 97.0 ___ Weather26 (8) _______________________16.0 __ 84.0 ___ weather-history (36) ______________

17.2 __ ----- ___ Prolonged SnowLover (22) ______________15.9 __ 89.0 ___ nn2013 (3) _____________________

17.2 __ ----- ___ matty007 (31) ________________________15.8 __ ----- ___ Optimus Prime (53) _______________

17.2 __ 80.0 ___ the PIT (38) _________________________15.8 __ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister (L1-1) ____________

17.2 __ 68.0 ___ Feb1991blizzard (43) __________________15.5 __ 74.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (26) ____________

17.2 __ ----- ___ damianslaw (54) ______________________ 15.5 __ 94.0 ___ syed2878 (28) __________________

17.1 __ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (33) ______________________15.4 __ ----- ___ Kentish Man (27) & Andrew R (L1-2) __

__________________________________________________15.1 __ ----- ___ vizzy2004 (L1-4) 

17.1 __ 75.7 ___ Midlands Ice Age (39) _________________ 14.5 __250.0___ Thundershine (15) _______________

__ 59 on-time forecasts, five so far that are one day late, total of 64

__ __ consensus 17.0 C. (with 80.0 mm for EWP)

====================== <> =====================

EWP forecasts in order of amounts ...

250 Thun .. 200 LG .. 130 dave ..124 Steve .. 115 Norr .. 102 stew, cold .. 97 wx26 .. 96 IRAtl, Godb .. 94 syed .. 92.2 RJS ..

 90 BFTV, Don .. 89 nn .. 85 DRSNO, J10 .. 84 w-h .. 83 BFTP .. 82 emm .. 80 virt, Pit, SF ..(79.5 con) 79 star... 78.8 (89-18) 

 78 bobd ..  77.6 CPS .. 77 tim .. 75.7 MIA .. 75.6 (81-10) .. 75 B87, Jeff, EdS, SB, Mul .. 74 DRL .. 72 reef

 70.4 brm .. 70 dan .. 69.4 KW .. 68 Feb91 .. 67 DSNOW .. 66 sea .. 60 Leo .. 29.2 chris .. 20.2 PG .. 20 big d 

43 on-time forecasts, plus two late, median (consensus) 80.0 mm.  

_______________________________________________________________

NOW CLOSED TO FURTHER ENTRIES

165 83 151

Edited by Roger J Smith

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