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August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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17.0 to the 23rd 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th Current low this mon

August 19 CET.xlsx Spreadsheet as promised.

Confirmed as 17.1C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt Warmest August since 2004. Summer finishes on 16.27C, the joint 8th warmest of the last 30 years. 

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Some really strange forecasts so far, given that the first 10 days are likely to come out average, i just can't see any of these forecasts nearly 2c either side of average happening at all, i will wait before passing judgement on around the 30th though.

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Early signs is that August is going to be another relative let down - not necessarily that bad compared to some historically poor Augusts of the past but possibly the first below average month of the year with rather unsettled weather to boot,.. the school holidays seem to have that effect.

15.4C please

 

 

 

Edited by Kentish Man
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1 hour ago, Kentish Man said:

Early signs is that August is going to be another relative let down - not necessarily that bad compared to some historically poor Augusts of the past but possibly the first below average month of the year with rather unsettled weather to boot,.. the school holidays seem to have that effect.

15.4C please

 

 

 

May and June were both below average here. 

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On 22/07/2019 at 09:19, Ed Stone said:

I'll go for 18C and 75mm please...

I can't see things being overly dry (temperature contrast between the very hot near-continent and the Atlantic ocean) but I expect (hope) that temps will reflect the occasional hot plume...:oldgrin:

I'll change that to 17.0C, please...Rainfall still at 75mm.:oldgrin:

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I'll go for 17.3C with at least one further plume (perhaps around mid-month). Let's see if we can get 34C+ temperatures in all three Summer months - that would be quite something.

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1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

I'll go for 17.3C with at least one further plume (perhaps around mid-month). Let's see if we can get 34C+ temperatures in all three Summer months - that would be quite something.

I thjnk another week long spell of 29-32c is doable with a thunderstorm, sometime between August 1st and the 20th.

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