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August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
17 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Tuesday had a front across the Midlands and Yorkshire (high teens maxima) and the CET zone stretches to Manchester which even behind the front was cooler than average most likely. 

Okay maybe so, but it didn't drop after Wednesday (I think you mean Wednesday as that was the cooler day here- Tuesday was warm) it dropped after Thursday which was a warmer day across the CET zone.

Wednesday was also considerably warmer further south which should have balanced out the cooler day up north and prevented a fall in the CET so late in the month surely...very odd

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

We should finish right on the border between 17.3 and 17.4C before corrections are applied, though I lean more towards 17.4C.
So anything between 16.9 and 17.5C as a final figure.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield finished on 17.1C +0.8C above average. Rainfall on 71.1mm and 107.6% of the monthly total.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Confirmed as 17.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Warmest August since 2004.

Summer finishes on 16.27C, the joint 8th warmest of the last 30 years. 

Edited by reef
Because I cant read it seems!
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

With August 2019 confirmed as 17.1, or 17.06 to be precise, it makes it just by a fraction, the warmest August in 15 years, and the second proper warm August (CET 17.0*C and above) since 2004.  In the last 100 years only 13 Augusts were warmer, and two with the same CET.

Summer 2019 finishes at 16.27*C, which makes it another relatively warm summer although nowhere near as warm as 2018.  Summer 2019 actually finished just about equal to 2013 for the CETs over the three month period.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Just the 1 daily record, with 21.7C on the 25th, beating the old record of 20.9C, set back in 1898.

This means there are only 4 daily records remaining in August that were set before 1900, these are the 15th (1893 - 22.1C), 17th (1876 - 22.4), 18th (1893 - 22.6C) and the 26th (1869 - 20.6C).

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well I thought at 16.9C, just 0.2C out, I'd be on for my best performance of the year... checked the list of entries and I'm not sure I'll even be in the top 25 for the month!!!

Some of you have got really, really good at this

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Well I thought at 16.9C, just 0.2C out, I'd be on for my best performance of the year... checked the list of entries and I'm not sure I'll even be in the top 25 for the month!!!

Some of you have got really, really good at this

I might struggle for top 10 and im just 0.1 out, i think it is more to do with the last few months being around what most people expect these days, i think in winter or summer, if we get a 2 or 3c below average month, you will find that that kind or error will have you in the top 5 and even win it in some intsances.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, reef said:

Confirmed as 17.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Warmest August since 2003.

Summer finishes on 16.27C, the joint 8th warmest of the last 30 years. 

Warmest since 2004.  That August had CET of 17.6C.  Not remembered as being particularly warm though as it was very wet.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
20 minutes ago, Don said:

Warmest since 2004.  That August had CET of 17.6C.  Not remembered as being particularly warm though as it was very wet.

Yep, just realised my eyesight is pants and I traced the 2004 figure back to 2003 on the list, doh.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP tracker 86 mm to 30th, may add 2 for 31st which was dry in many places, 5-15 mm in parts of north Wales, Lancs, Cumbria. (88 total then)

Preliminary total should be available tomorrow and final value on 5th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

According to the table of entries, two had 17.1 (Mark Bayley and Midlands Ice Age entered in 33rd and 39th positions to be 1-2). 

Then it's a big logjam of six at 17.2 and five at 17.0. With order of entry determining their positions, it looks like B87 (17.0) is third, and weather26 (17.2) is fourth. After that, it would be Jonathan F. in 5th, and DR(S)NO in 6th, ProlongedSnowLover 7th,  EdStone in 8th, matty007 in 9th, The_PIT in 10th, sundog in 11th, Feb1991blizzard in 12th, and damianslaw in 13th.

Of all those, the best combined forecast ranking seems to be DR(S)NO (6th, 4th). If 88 mm is the provisional EWP, nn2013 at 89 mm has top score, and Born from the Void (90 mm) is second with Don (later with 90 mm) third. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

I was pretty happy only 0.4C out at 17.5C, closer than usual.

Sadly a bit further out on the EWP!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for AUGUST

 

Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points

 consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3

 

June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ August 2019

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ FCST _ error _ rank _ points

consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____17.0 _ --0.1 __ 3 to 13 __ 81.0 to 96.8

1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____16.5 _ --0.6 __38 to 43 __ 33.6 to 41.5

1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____16.4 _ --0.7 __44 to 44 __ 32.0 to 32.0

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Average (9 months)

_________________ abs err __ rank __ points

consensus ________ 1.03 __ 23 to 26 _ 58.0 to 64.5

1989-2018 ________ 0.91__ 22 to 25 _ 62.3 to 66.1

1981-2010 ________ 1.02 __ 26 to 28 _ 58.0 to 61.6

 

___________________________________________________

With our consensus doing a lot better than the two normals in August, the gap has narrowed and consensus is running about even with the 1981-2010 normals, while still trailing the usually warmer 1989-2018 normals. 

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Monthly Scores

2 spot on this month, Mark Bayley and Midlands Ice Age

with 11 entries 0.1c out, so 13 within 0.1c degree, proably an all time record.

image.thumb.png.eb1661dda09dcdd330ffe4805df1e60b.png

Seasonal

A close 1-2-3 with edging it from Quicksilver1989 with Midlands Ice Age in 3rd.

If the CET was 16.9c or lower Quicksilver1989 would have won.

image.thumb.png.4af46c9b7103e6cfd1a2b6cb16c5fb41.png

Overall

The same top 4 as last month, but with a slight change in the order. 

Seasonal

Quicksilver1989 still leads from The PIT in 2nd (from 4th), Stationary Front stays in 3rd with BornFromTheVoid in 4th (from 2nd)

image.thumb.png.21c5a58682cc8403db305014b40cf1a1.png

Spreadsheets to follow tomorrow.

 

 

 

Edited by J10
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8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Well I thought at 16.9C, just 0.2C out, I'd be on for my best performance of the year... checked the list of entries and I'm not sure I'll even be in the top 25 for the month!!!

Some of you have got really, really good at this

You were 0.2c and were 21st. but beatme though I was 0.6c out and came 43rd.

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 hours ago, J10 said:

You were 0.2c and were 21st. but beatme though I was 0.6c out and came 43rd.

Harsh. I wonder if there is anything can be done as a better tie breaker than order of entry, as i have never ever gone on what anybody else has gone for, not even professionals or annual leaders of this contest, so seems a bit harsh when you can have 1-6 positions separated by 24 hours worth of entry time.

EDIT : although its a good thing that more and more people show an aptitude for weather forecasting, could mean that the more people get interested and knowledgeable about weather, the less people will be killed or injured in severe weather as they will be more aware and have more nous about forecasting it and reacting to it.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
56 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Harsh. I wonder if there is anything can be done as a better tie breaker than order of entry, as i have never ever gone on what anybody else has gone for, not even professionals or annual leaders of this contest, so seems a bit harsh when you can have 1-6 positions separated by 24 hours worth of entry time.

I can't see what would be gained by tinkering with the ranking-method feb...it is, after all, the same for everyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I can't see what would be gained by tinkering with the ranking-method feb...it is, after all, the same for everyone?

True, i don't know how you could do it differently anyway, you couldn't have things like prediction of how the month goes exactly as that would be too subjective.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP tracker has reached end of the month now at 87 mm. Working on the scoring table but the top scores for the month would be shared by nn2013 who had 89 mm and DR(S)NO who had 85 mm with J10 in third, having a later entry of 85 mm. 

The annual scoring race is Born from the Void in first, Reef in second, and weather-history in third. J10 is fourth with seaside60 in fifth place.

The summer seasonal scoring has J10 in the lead with Born from the Void second and DR(S)NO in third.

... will attach the updated scoring file when fully edited ...

Also note that these scores may need slight revisions when a final figure is posted, unless that happens to be 87.0 mm. Even a small change will result in several ties being broken. 

______________________________

File is now attached. Main scoring table and summer portions are updated, "ultimate scoring" has the right annual totals but remains unsorted, might as well do that when the 87.0 inevitably gets changed to something slightly different. 

EWP20182019AUG9870.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Rainfall:

spacer.png

Sunshine:

spacer.png

Ties in with what I thought. We finished the month with just under 50mm, compared to a LTA of 58mm. So sunnier than average, drier than average and warmer than average - August actually turned out to be the best month of the summer here despite the pessimism earlier in the month.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Re: CET scoring, it should be mentioned that the overall scoring for the CET includes not only points from order of entry, but average error and accuracy points which are not dependent on the order of entry, so in fact the overall scoring is not that heavily influenced by order of entry. 

This is why I drop the EWP duplicate entries by half a step, it comes out to the same thing more or less, and also you can compare your average error ranking against the field. They tend to run fairly close to scoring ranks but jog around a bit. In the EWP table, you'll find these two ranks in column A before your name -- the first number is your scoring rank and the second one is your average error rank, if you've played the minimum required number of months. 

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