August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[cheese]

16 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Suprised rainfall has been so low round here. We have had some very heavy showers and last Friday was very wet.

Yeah we had 13mm on Friday but I suppose showers will be more hit and miss.

[Met.]

Here it's rained almost every day at some point this month, yet with relatively little to show for it (that said we're at 100% of the August average already). Certainly felt like an unsettled, dull month so far, so the warm up into the final third is quite welcome for me especially if it can manage to go for more than 24 hours without raining at some point.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's something odd I just noticed in the EWP stats, for annual precip, the six wettest years are all leap years ...

1872, 1768, 2012, 2000, 1852, 1960.

Then leap years keep appearing more frequently than once every four places ... 10th, 12th, 17th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, so that's twelve of the wettest 23. 

However, they also dominate the ten driest years with five (1788 driest, 1780 fifth driest, 1864 sixth driest, 1844 eighth driest, 1964 tenth driest). 

[Summer Sun]

16.9 to the 20th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 77 mm after 19 days, added perhaps 1 mm on 20th, and GFS shows only about 10 mm on average (a few places almost dry but some over 20 mm) to 06z 31st. Then charts for 18z 31st suggest 5 mm of rain could fall that day for a total of about 93 mm, outcome seems likely to be in the 90-100 range anyway. 

Would currently guess 17.2 after adjustments for CET (17.4 before). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.5C bang on average. Rainfall 67.4mm 102% of the monthly average.

Probably the low point of the month although the gFS isn't so hot this evening and delays the very unpleasant temps for Bank Holiday Monday.

Edited August 21, 2019 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

Looks like ending up a rather warm month, but apart from perhaps what may occur in some parts come this weekend and into next week, no real significant heat. Lots of warm cloudy or wet days.. Another August therefore to forget, despite it being decent temperature wise. The last two weeks or so here have been very poor here, with lots of wind, rain and cloud. 

[Summer Sun]

16.9 to the 21st

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th & 21st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

 

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

  

This morning's GFS cuts the hot spell short by a day, but warms things up a little more in the near term. Still plenty of scope for some record breaking days and a finish above 17C before corrections is almost certain now.

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP tracker on 78 mm after 20 days, added perhaps 2 mm on 21st (dry most of the grid, 10-20 mm in far north and north Wales). The projection on GFS to end of month is around 10 mm on average, once again rather dry in the south to 20-30 mm in the north. That will finish things very close to 90 mm (provisional scoring for that was posted a few days back). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.4C bang on average. Rainfall Unchanged. Onward and upwards from now on temperatures wise.

Edited August 22, 2019 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

16.9 to the 22nd

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 16.5C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 67.4mm 102% of the monthly average.

[Don]

11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.9 to the 22nd

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

Another above average month in the bag!

[Summer Sun]

17.0 to the 23rd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.6C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged

[Roger J Smith]

Latest EWP estimate (80 mm to 23rd, zero on 23rd-24th, 5-10 mm to fall on average) is 87 mm. Looks rather wet in the northwest but dry in the southeast, 10 mm could be generous, so maybe 83-86 the likely finishing range at this point.

(edited on Sunday 25th, think my report may have contained a slight error in total to 22nd, so I have placed the more accurate number of 80 mm in today's edit, was probably 80 mm to 22nd as well). 

 

Edited August 25, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 24th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.7C +0.3C above normal rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

17.3 to the 25th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Roger J Smith]

The summer of 2019 now stands provisionally first in terms of the average value of the warmest days of each month, and as June (21.7) was its lowest value, will finish second to 1947 (21.8) with 1846 third at 21.6 in terms of exceeding a given value (falling to third if August reduced in final values to 21.6 (tied) or 21.5 down to 21.1 (all would be sole third), unless yesterday's provisional of 21.9 is reduced to 21.0 or lower which seems unlikely).

edit -- this list now includes all top 50 averages of monthly max, showing their full stats and includes all years that exceeded 19.0 all three months. Ranked for average summers that had a value lower than 19.1 are not ranked in the category of lowest value. Ranked for value summers with an average lower than 20 are not ranked in that category.

edit after final data for August -- The slightly lower value of 21.7 for August (was 21.9 in provisional) means that 2019 ties 1995 for first place in the average of three monthly maxima, and remains second behind 1947 for highest value attained in each month (21.7 vs 21.8 for 1947).

rank _ YEAR _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG ___ avg (rank)

_ 01 __1947 __ 23.0 _ 21.8 _ 22.1 ___ 22.30 (4)

_ 02 __2019 __ 21.7 _ 25.2 _ 21.7 ___ 22.87 (t1)

_ 03 __1846 __ 22.0 _ 21.6 _ 21.7 ___ 21.77 (t10)

_ 04 __ 2001 __ 21.9 _ 23.0 _ 21.0 ___ 21.97 (9)

_t05 __ 2005 __ 22.1 _ 22.0 _ 20.9 ___ 21.67 (t12)

_t05 __ 2006 __ 20.8 _ 24.5 _ 20.9 ___ 22.07 (8)

_t05 __ 1781 __ 20.8 _ 20.8 _ 20.9 ___ 20.83 (t34)

_ 08 __ 1868 __ 20.6 _ 23.2 _ 22.5 ___ 22.10 (7)

_t09 __ 1976 __ 22.6 _ 24.5 _ 20.5 ___ 22.53 (3)

_t09 __ 1818 __ 20.5 _ 23.9 _ 20.9 ___ 21.77 (t10)

_t09 __ 1893 __ 20.5 _ 21.2 _ 22.6 ___ 21.43 (16)

_t09 __ 1921 __ 21.0 _ 22.3 _ 20.5 ___ 21.27 (21)

_t13 __ 1826 __ 22.8 _ 21.8 _ 20.4 ___ 21.67 (t12)

_t13 __ 1935 __ 22.0 _ 21.3 _ 20.4 ___ 21.23 (t22)

_t15 __ 1995 __ 20.3 _ 23.4 _ 24.9 ___ 22.87 (t1) 

_t15 __ 1933 __ 20.3 _ 21.6 _ 22.2 ___ 21.37 (17)

_t15 __ 1870 __ 20.3 _ 21.4 _ 20.6 ___ 20.77 (t36)

_t18 __ 2015 __ 20.2 _ 24.6 _ 20.1 ___ 21.63 (14)

_t18 __ 2018 __ 20.1 _ 22.5 _ 20.5 ___ 21.03 (t27)

_ 20 __ 1970 __ 21.5 _ 21.6 _ 20.0 ___ 21.03 (t27)

_t21 __ 2003 __ 19.9 _ 22.7 _ 23.9 ___ 22.17 (t5)

_t21 __ 1834 __ 21.8 _ 22.3 _ 19,9 ___ 21.33 (18)

_t21 __ 1975 __ 19.9 _ 20.3 _ 23.7 ___ 21.30 (t19)

_t21 __ 1858 __ 22.9 _ 20.7 _ 19.9 ___ 21.17 (25)

_t21 __ 1897 __ 20.2 _ 19.9 _ 22.2 ___ 20.77 (t36) 

_t21 __ 1857 __ 21.1 _ 19.9 _ 21.1 ___ 20.70 (t41)

_t21 __ 1982 __ 21.3 _ 19,9 _ 20.9 ___ 20.70 (t41)

_t28 __ 2009 __ 21.4 _ 22.5 _ 19.8 ___ 21.23 (t22)

_t28 __ 1876 __ 19.8 _ 21.4 _ 22.4 ___ 21.20 (24)

_t28 __ 1773 __ 19.8 _ 20.9 _ 22.5 ___ 21.07 (26)

_t28 __ 1772 __ 20.8 _ 20.3 _ 19.8 ___ 20.30 (t61)

_t32 __ 1949 __ 21.4 _ 21.5 _ 19.7 ___ 20.87 (t32)

_t32 __ 1856 __ 19.7 _ 19.7 _ 22.2 ___ 20.53 (t48)

_t32 __ 1804 __ 20.7 _ 19.7 _ 21.0 ___ 20.47 (t54)

_t32 __ 1854 __ 19.7 _ 21.2 _ 19.9 ___ 20.27 (t63)

_ 36 __ 1930 __ 19.6 _ 19.8 _ 22.3 ___ 20.73 (t39)

_t37 __ 1911 __ 19.5 _ 23.4 _ 23.6 ___ 22.17 (t5)

_t37 __ 1778 __ 20.2 _ 21.6 _ 19.5 ___ 20.43 (t56)

_t37 __ 2012 __ 19.8 _ 19.5 _ 20.3 ___ 19.87 ()

_t40 __ 1783 __ 19.4 _ 22.6 _ 20.0 ___ 20.67 (44)

_t40 __ 2004 __ 20.1 _ 19.4 _ 21.7 ___ 20.40 (58)

_t40 __ 1780 __ 19.4 _ 21.2 _ 20.3 ___ 20.30 (t61)

_t40 __ 1798 __ 21.4 _ 19.4 _ 19.4 ___ 20.07 (t74)

_t44 __ 1884 __ 19.3 _ 19.9 _ 22.5 ___ 20.57 (47)

_t44 __ 1959 __ 19.3 _ 20.9 _ 21.4 ___ 20.53 (t48)

_t44 __ 1914 __ 21.0 _ 20.3 _ 19.3 ___ 20.20 (t68)

_t44 __ 1987 __ 20.1 _ 19.3 _ 20.9 ___ 20.10 (t72)   

_t48 __ 1989 __ 20.5 _ 23.1 _ 19.2 ___ 20.93 (31)

_t48 __ 1984 __ 19.2 _ 21.1 _ 21.6 ___ 20.63 (45)

_t48 __ 1961 __ 19.2 _ 20.7 _ 21.6 ___ 20.50 (t51)

_t48 __ 1835 __ 19.6 _ 19.2 _ 20.7 ___ 19.83 ()

_t48 __ 1788 __ 19.8 _ 20.4 _ 19.2 ___ 19.80 ()

_t53 __ 1825 __ 19.1 _ 22.7 _ 23.9 ___ 21.60 (15)

_t53 __ 1859 __ 19.1 _ 22.2 _ 20.3 ___ 20.53 (t48)

_t53 __ 1994 __ 19.1 _ 20.6 _ 20.4 ___ 20.03 (t77)

_ xx __ 2016 __ 18.9 _ 23.5 _ 20.2 ___ 20.87 (t32)

_ xx __ 1957 __ 21.1 _ 22.3 _ 18.9 ___ 20.77 (t36)  

_ xx __ 1952 __ 20.8 _ 22.5 _ 18.9 ___ 20.73 (t39)

_ xx __ 1899 __ 18.8 _ 21.1 _ 20.9 ___ 20.27 (t63)

_ xx __ 1869 __ 18.6 _ 21.9 _ 20.8 ___ 20.43 (t56)

_ xx __ 1968 __ 18.6 _ 21.8 _ 19.7 ___ 20.03 (t77)

_ xx __ 2017 __ 21.9 _ 21.0 _ 18.5 ___ 20.47 (t54)

_ xx __ 1953 __ 20.6 _ 18.5 _ 22.0 ___ 20.37 (t59)

_ xx __ 1942 __ 21.1 _ 18.4 _ 23.0 ___ 20.83 (t34)

_ xx __ 1997 __ 18.4 _ 19.1 _ 22.6 ___ 20.03 (t77)

_ xx __ 1878 __ 22.7 _ 22.9 _ 18.3 ___ 21.30 (t19)

_ xx __ 1941 __ 22.3 _ 22.5 _ 18.3 ___ 21.03 (t27)

_ xx __ 1800 __ 18.3 _ 20.6 _ 21.7 ___ 20.20 (t68) 

_ xx __ 1948 __ 18.2 _ 25.2 _ 18.4 ___ 20.60 (46)

_ xx __ 1932 __ 18,2 _ 20.5 _ 22.8 ___ 20.50 (t51)

_ xx __ 2011 __ 22.0 _ 18,2 _ 20.1 ___ 20.10 (t72) 

_ xx __ 1990 __ 18,1 _ 20.5 _ 24.4 ___ 21.00 (30)

_ xx __ 1820 __ 21.9 _ 21.1 _ 18.1 ___ 20.37 (t59) 

_ xx __ 2002 __ 18,1 _ 21.6 _ 20.4 ___ 20.03 (t77) 

_ xx __ 1925 __ 20.3 _ 22.3 _ 18,0 ___ 20.20 (t68)

_ xx __ 1983 __ 17.9 _ 22.7 _ 20.9 ___ 20.50 (t51)

_ xx __ 2013 __ 17.8 _ 21.6 _ 22.7 ___ 20.70 (t41) 

_ xx __ 1969 __ 17.8 _ 21.4 _ 21.0 ___ 20.07 (t74) 

_ xx __ 1808 __ 17.7 _ 24.5 _ 18.6 ___ 20.27 (t63)

_ xx __ 1943 __ 17.5 _ 23.4 _ 19.9 ___ 20.27 (t63) 

_ xx __ 1779 __ 17.5 _ 22.0 _ 21.2 ___ 20.23 (67)

_ xx __ 1901 __ 17.5 _ 22.6 _ 20.4 ___ 20.17 (71) 

_ xx __ 2007 __ 17.2 _ 21.7 _ 21.3 ___ 20.07 (t74) 

_______________________________________

1780 made only a modest dent on these lists but it did manage to exceed 21 in both May and September. 1868 was the only year to exceed 20 in all five months. No other year has had such warm days in both of those months. September 1906 had a warmer day but May 1906 maxed out at 15.1. May 1947 also had some days near 21 and September maxed out at 18.8. May 1944 also quite warm at the end, but September had no really warm weather. And September of 1833 was very cool. 

(added later) 

These are the top averages for all five months May to September, and what 2019 would need to tie them (subject to adjustment for the August provisional value). (edit 21 Sep 2019, have added .2 to all values under 2019 as August dropped by 0.2 in final values. Have inserted 2019 into table using 21st Sep estimate of 18.0 ... the current provisional daily max is 16.6 which would place 2019 in 12th. 18.0 would leave this year in 8th. Anything from 18.3 to 19.3 would leave 2019 in 7th. 

Rank _ Year ___ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG__ SEP ___Mean ___ 2019 ties with this

_01 __ 1868 ___ 20.4 __ 20.6 __ 23.2 __ 22.5 __ 21.1 ___ 21.56 _____ (23.5)

_02 __ 1947 ___ 20.8 __ 23.0 __ 21.8 __ 22.1 __ 18.8 ___ 21.30 _____ (22.2)

_03 __ 2006 ___ 17.4 __ 20.8 __ 24.5 __ 20.9 __ 21.4 ___ 21.00 _____ (20.7)

_04 __ 1911 ___ 17.9 __ 19.5 __ 23.4 __ 23.6 __ 19.8 ___ 20.84 _____ (19.9)

_05 __ 1780 ___ 21.2 __ 19.4 __ 21.2 __ 20.3 __ 21.8 ___ 20.78 _____ (19.6)

_06 __ 2005 ___ 18.3 __ 22.1 __ 22.0 __ 20.9 __ 20.4 ___ 20.74 _____ (19.4)

_07 __ 2003 ___ 18.9 __ 19.9 __ 22.7 __ 23.9 __ 17.1 ___ 20.50 _____ (18.2)

_08 __ 2019 ___ 15.7 __ 21.7 __ 25.2 __ 21.7 __ 18.0 ___ 20.46 _____ (18.0)

_09 __ 1781 ___ 20.0 __ 20.9 __ 20.8 __ 20.8 __ 19.5 ___ 20.40 _____ (17.5)

_10 __ 2016 ___ 17.8 __ 18.9 __ 23.5 __ 20.2 __ 21.3 ___ 20.34 _____ (17.2)

_11 __ 1995 ___ 16.5 __ 20.3 __ 23.4 __ 24.9 __ 16.5 ___ 20.32 _____ (17.1)

_12 __ 1834 ___ 18.0 __ 21.8 __ 22.3 __ 19.9 __ 18.3 ___ 20.06 _____ (15.8)

_13 __ 2001 ___ 17.6 __ 21.9 __ 23.0 __ 21.0 __ 16.8 ___ 20.06 _____ (15.8)

_14 __ 1846 ___ 16.7 __ 22.0 __ 21.6 __ 21.7 __ 18.1 ___ 20.02 _____ (15.6)

_15 __ 1858 ___ 18.9 __ 22.9 __ 20.7 __ 19.9 __ 17.6 ___ 20.00 _____ (15.5)

_16 __ 2009 ___ 16.6 __ 21.4 __ 22.5 __ 19.8 __ 19.7 ___ 20.00 _____ (15.5)

 

 

Edited September 21, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.2C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall at 67.4mm 102% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

17.4 to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 16.9 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

17C+ pretty much nailed on now? It seems like it's going to take a fairly big correction at the end of the month to take it below 17C.