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August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

On average I believe the first week of August returns the warmest CET mean of the year. The start of the month has been warm largely due to high minima which is very easy to attain under cloudy skies at this time of year. The air has had a tropical maritime source to it, very high minima and slightly above average maxima - no heatwave by any means but warm.

It's one of the warmer periods on average for sure, but not often this warm. I don't think it can be played down just how warm it has been relative to average- both by day and night.

We have very warm SSTs around the UK at the moment relative to average and I imagine this has played a role in keeping minima up and perhaps also allowing daytime temps to rise higher than might normally be expected in the setup we've had.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

As to what is normally the warmest part of the summer, the 1981-2010 CET averages show that the last seven days of July are warmest, average there being 17.3 C. The first seven days of August by comparison averaged 17.0. Looking at the longer set of data from all years 1772 to 2018, the warmest seven days were 13th to 19th July which averaged 16.3, about 0.1 to 0.2 higher than the averages around end of July.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Night time minimums comparison between last 5 days of August and last 5 days of september, don't know at all but i bet people might be surprised, i bet there is not actually that much difference.

EDIT inland Britain, CET zone or similar, wouldn't apply to coastal regions.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

On the precipitation front todays GFS forecasts 53mm of rainfall between the 9th and 14th here. 

100mm August here 23 come.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 18.9C +2.3C above average. Rainfall 11.7mm 17.7% of the monthly average.

A very warm five days of August which gone by with hardly a murmur.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP tracker was only at 4 mm after four days, the 5th added very little, and today is adding just over a small area in the far north, so assuming it's still close to 6 or 7 mm, ten day GFS is quite wet and adds 55-60 mm, placing the estimate around 60-70 mm by just the middle of the month. So yes it could be headed towards 100 mm if the pattern remains similar, and once again it's northern England leading the way. 

Will attach the updated scoring for some arbitrary large amount in August just to get that rolling, only as a "what if" at this stage. 

EWP20182019AUG.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.6 to the 6th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Given the forecast for northern parts the CET should take a pretty large hit after the 10th. Do we have an estimate to the 15th and 20th from current models?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 18.7C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 13.5mm 20.4% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
22 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

18.6 to the 6th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

Quite fascinating that the CET is only a degree or so lower than at the same stage last year, when we were still in full-blown heatwave mode.

Still that month managed to get back to average by the end, so little chance of this month being any better on current charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite fascinating that the CET is only a degree or so lower than at the same stage last year, when we were still in full-blown heatwave mode.

Still that month managed to get back to average by the end, so little chance of this month being any better on current charts.

Really!?!...August last year started hotter than this years? If so can't recall it being that warm, personally felt that temps and conditions were on the slide after Wimbledon last summer but then I looked at July 2018 CET and wow!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite fascinating that the CET is only a degree or so lower than at the same stage last year, when we were still in full-blown heatwave mode.

Still that month managed to get back to average by the end, so little chance of this month being any better on current charts.

2014 is perhaps more surprising. 17.2 to the 8th and 16.5 to the 15th.

Would not rule out a high 15 outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.4 to the 7th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Really!?!...August last year started hotter than this years? If so can't recall it being that warm, personally felt that temps and conditions were on the slide after Wimbledon last summer but then I looked at July 2018 CET and wow!

You may be recalling a different year ... last year's maxes from Aug 1 to Aug 7 were 27c, 31c, 33c, 29c, 30c, 32c and 33c.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Wow!...and so much was made about the May-early July period last summer due to the continuous warmth and wall to wall sunshine yet the month ended up only 0.9c warmer than average...worrying in other aspects!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged. The weekend should see a big fall by the looks of things.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.4C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall 25.6mm 38.7% of the monthly average rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.3 to the 8th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP tracker was 10 mm after 7th, about that same amount likely to be added for 8th, and 40-60 mm the range most likely to be accumulated from GFS ten day guidance starting from earlier today. That leaves my earlier provisional used in the "what if" approximation of scoring (100.1 mm) valid but I will run the program for 90.1 and post that version so you can see where you might end up for those outcomes. 

EWP20182019AUG901.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.5 to the 9th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

18.5 to the 9th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.8 to the 4th

Current low this month 18.1 to the 1st

Very warm August so far.  Wonder where the CET will be in around 10 days?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.4C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall 36.3mm 54.9% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, Don said:

Very warm August so far.  Wonder where the CET will be in around 10 days?

Somewhere between 16.5 and 17.0 would be a good bet at this stage by the 20th

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