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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

90 - 94 saw some good snowfall events down here. After that, I had to wait until 2009 to see anything substantial.

Had decent a decent snow event in February 1991 and a few short lived snowfalls during winter 1993/94, but that's about it for my back yard.  Even the cold winter of 1995/96 delivered no more than a couple of cm's for me!  I had to wait until January 2003 for the next 'half' decent snow event!  However, when 2009 arrived I was back in business until 2012/2013 ?

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There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at i

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Being into photography, the sheer beauty of it

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2 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, that was the start of a run of stinkers!  The following winter was even worse.

I often wonder why that winter sticks out for me. As it seemed to be the first one down south without any proper snow. I just remember it being sunnier at times, but maybe that’s my imagination. 

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5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I often wonder why that winter sticks out for me. As it seemed to be the first one down south without any proper snow. I just remember it being sunnier at times, but maybe that’s my imagination. 

Because that was the first mild winter to follow three cold snowy winters.  I think most assumed 1987/88 would be another cold one with snow very likely once again.  However, as we know it didn't happen (bar a few flurries in February).  That winter also sticks out for me for this reason.

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2 hours ago, cheese said:

1987/1988 is when the more pronounced warming trend started. The 90s had some good spells but it was a pretty crap decade for snow overall.

I agree. That’s when I started to notice it. The October hurricane, very mild sunny Christmas Day, and mild winter in general. I remember as a 12 year old, that was the first winter without snowfall for the past several years. 

Summers were still poor though, as 1987 and 88 were both terrible, so despite a winter warming trend, the summers weren’t record breaking. However, 1987 did produce a deadly heatwave in Greece, so maybe this was the start of a global warming trend.

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I always think of winters in my lifetime as pre winters  87/ 88 or  post winters 87/88. I was only 14 at the time but our winters seemed different after that.

Though perhaps it could be said the 10 yrs or so before that  produced more noticeable cold spells then normal  for our climactic norm anyway.

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What a fantastic morning to wake up to weather-wise.

Really got me in the mood to put up the decorations after moaning about Christmas songs being played on the radio all week. 

Will enjoy this week as much as I can, as I'm sure we'll have something more changeable back in time for next weekend. 

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Just woke up after too many Stella's last night

I went out with the 18z. And ended up back at mine . Nothing went on I'm married. 

Nice to see the 00z showing colder weather granted  it's 10 days.

Less cold weather before that though as the high slips east. Drawing a  milder westerly air flow .

I think by the 10th most of the UK will be seeing some snow showers. 

Mainly the North. East and south Eastern areas seeing the frequency of the showers.

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Don said:

Because that was the first mild winter to follow three cold snowy winters.  I think most assumed 1987/88 would be another cold one with snow very likely once again.  However, as we know it didn't happen (bar a few flurries in February).  That winter also sticks out for me for this reason.

2013/14 sticks out also for similar reasons. It seemed to coincide with better summers and the end of colder snowy winters from 2008/9 to 12/13.

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13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I agree. That’s when I started to notice it. The October hurricane, very mild sunny Christmas Day, and mild winter in general. I remember as a 12 year old, that was the first winter without snowfall for the past several years. 

Summers were still poor though, as 1987 and 88 were both terrible, so despite a winter warming trend, the summers weren’t record breaking. However, 1987 did produce a deadly heatwave in Greece, so maybe this was the start of a global warming trend.

You can see it on this graph nicely. Mean temperatures shot up in the late 80s and it’s been a more or less upward trend ever since (2008-2013 saw a brief dip).

image.thumb.gif.791d3891a9858788ec54b4245bb29548.gif

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Well, its fast approaching midnight on the 30th November, and autumn 2019 is almost over. But even the autumn lover here has to admit that its been a bit of a grey, and wet ole autumn, but oddly quite calm, with no gales or storms that i can think of. :nonono:
Although we have had quite a few misty foggy days, which I have to be honest I do enjoy, plus that lovely sunny spell towards the middle of September, and the one towards the end of October which have all been very welcome :oldsmile:
Ahh well... Until next summer, when I (usually) get my first pangs of the coming autumn, all I can say is farewell autumn, and lets hope you're a tad dryer next year. :drinks:

 

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It was an incredible meteorological Autumn here in the West of Scotland - below average rainfall, above average sunshine and another below average month. (Mean temperature - both October and November)

Special mention for a total lack of gales/severe gales which is extremely rare for Autumn here - maximum wind gusts barely reached 40mph on only one occasion. (Bizarre Autumn in that respect)

It all ended yesterday with how it has looked for most of November here - frosty and cold!

DA5A2A34-D9E9-457A-84EF-1C2C1DE7DDEF.thumb.jpeg.c1ab0e6aea19240fb2d6a0af60a2e7ce.jpegACF61EBE-3E1E-457C-943A-934CF18D2E51.thumb.jpeg.8dfff21881b588c4825d289b3f5068d6.jpeg151E3CBB-EAC0-4D32-94D9-D53DE9A1CF65.thumb.jpeg.93a33f2529e2eb2e4a6fcb280282ac02.jpeg

Have a good Sunday everyone! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Fascinating to watch Gavs winter 2019/20 forecast. 

The analogues (like autumn of this year), drier to the North, ie Scotland, with jet much further south. 

Favours northern blocking... ?

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41 minutes ago, Griff said:

Fascinating to watch Gavs winter 2019/20 forecast. 

The analogues (like autumn of this year), drier to the North, ie Scotland, with jet much further south. 

Favours northern blocking... ?

Jury well and truly out on Gavs winter weather vids regarding analogue techniques (pattern matching) to forecast the winter ahead, I'm not sure it applies to the degree it would 20+ years ago with larger factors now being involved.

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Jury well and truly out on Gavs winter weather vids regarding analogue techniques (pattern matching) to forecast the winter ahead, I'm not sure it applies to the degree it would 20+ years ago with larger factors now being involved.

Without wanting to sound horrible i wouldn't pay much or any attention to those forecasts.

 

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37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Without wanting to sound horrible i wouldn't pay much or any attention to those forecasts.

 

Ha, as opposed to the long range forecasts predicting a mild November etc etc ?

Honestly, I take it all with a pinch of salt, I'm fairly sure the weather will always do its own thing, and has a healthy contempt for the history books (and to some extent, professional weather models).

However, I think everything has some value but beyond the next few days... find me a fortune teller ?

 

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What was going on in the model thread yesterday.

People getting stressed about the weather, seriously?

Life is sometimes sad and stressful ,but the weather and studying it,cheers me up no end .

UK always been fairly mild country in the winter,if you go into winter thinking that,you won't be disappointed when a cold spell disappears when it enters the reliable timeframe .again,lol.

So many things have to fall into place to get very cold weather to lowland UK because of our location ETC

Very exciting when it does happen though,the reason we go chasing  4 months every year?

Edited by SLEETY
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20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

What was going on in the model thread yesterday.

People getting stressed about the weather, seriously?

Life is sometimes sad and stressful ,but the weather and studying it,cheers me up no end .

UK always been fairly mild country in the winter,if you go into winter thinking that,you won't be disappointed when a cold spell disappears when it enters the reliable timeframe .again,lol.

So many things have to fall into place to get very cold weather to lowland UK because of our location ETC

Very exciting when it does happen though,the reason we go chasing  4 months every year?

Happens every year in the MAD thread. I tend to keep out of it now. Too many end up chucking toys out of prams arguing amongst themselves etc.

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