Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Those LRF signals again Don! I think far to much is read into those AO predictions as well. We had quite a few who said summer would be a complete write off based on those - AO musings! I pointed out a couple of weeks ago about Jon hammond saying there was a lot of head scratching going on this year, regarding the winter ahead! Contradicting signals, and some signals over riding others! There are no concrete signals on this coming winter if you ask me. Personally, and this may seem lame... I don't think for a minute that after last years cold fail from exeter, they would stick there neck on the line for a 2nd year running, by going for an all out cold prognosis!! I feel its possible that this year they have played the law of averages solution, with the knowledge that a UK winter is more likely to be mild, than cold!! You could kind of make a prediction for a UK winter to be milder than average, and be correct 80/90% of the time, without even looking at the models!! That doesn't make it correct though! Fascinating winter ahead in my opinion, most definitely I feel more action than last years narnia winter that completely failed. 

It’s good to keep an open mind but at the moment my expectation is for a mild and wet winter.  That way I won’t be as disappointed if it turns out to be true!  You can’t beat a pleasant surprise, however.

Edited by Don
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at i

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Being into photography, the sheer beauty of it

Posted Images

13 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s good to keep an open mind but at the moment my expectation is for a mild and wet winter.  That way I won’t be as disappointed if it turns out to be true!  You can’t beat a pleasant surprise, however.

I think you're expectation has an above average chance of being right - statistically at least - since cold Winters are a 1 in 10 year type of thing for the UK..

 

But they do happen. ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I think you're expectation has an above average chance of being right - statistically at least - since cold Winters are a 1 in 10 year type of thing for the UK..

 

But they do happen. ?

Hopefully we will have a colder winter during the next couple of years, following solar minimum.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

There’ll be no steamrollering on that run, the only evolution is slider and so much snow.  There is deep, deep cold flooding down from the arctic.....a winner set up for very cold winter conditions.

For those that keep saying it won’t happen....  I get the caution but this is following the script, run after run is showing this evolution.....so imo there is more than just a chance.....we are on the playing field my friends.....

 

BFTP

Can you not ramp in the appropriate threads? Like in here?

A similar post to one you made 9 days ago about 'big snow' across the Midlands for Wednesday just gone.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Stick to your cloudy and drab

 

BFTP

I will do, thanks. 

Any idea what happened to that big snow? I thought perhaps you might have posted about what went wrong?

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 28/11/2019 at 19:48, Don said:

It’s good to keep an open mind but at the moment my expectation is for a mild and wet winter.  That way I won’t be as disappointed if it turns out to be true!  You can’t beat a pleasant surprise, however.

I think it’s going to be like 2018/19, but without the very mild end(late Feb).

My prediction is it will be chilly and then quite mild in the second half of December, then temps will drop around Christmas Day, which will lead a very cold new year and first half of January. Possibly the coldest since 2010 or even 1987. 

February will be on the mild side, but it won’t be a sunny one. Mostly dull and mild, but dry throughout. Winter will end on a rather disappointing note. January will be the coldest month.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Hopefully not a 1987/88 winter. That was a stinker. 

Yes, that was the start of a run of stinkers!  The following winter was even worse.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Forecasts go wrong, have a look at the met office and their Autumn probabilities.

But it didn't go wrong, Dave...It would only have 'gone wrong' had the Autumn ended-up in a category assigned a zero% probability...:oldgrin:

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not a run of stinkers here, stinkers here started 98-99

1987/1988 is when the more pronounced warming trend started. The 90s had some good spells but it was a pretty crap decade for snow overall.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes I will take this, even over snow. Cold and sunny is actually my favourite. 

Gone off cold and sunny, without snow on the ground that is, these spells do not excite me, as everyone should admit, there is zero chance of snow at low levels this 'cold' spell which will end Thursday night

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not a run of stinkers here, stinkers here started 98-99

Yes, I believe the midlands northwards did pretty well during the 90’s, even in the milder winters?  Not so in the south though.

Edited by Don
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Don said:

Yes, I believe the midlands northwards did pretty well during the 90’s, even during the milder winters?  Not so in the south though.

90 - 94 saw some good snowfall events down here. After that, I had to wait until 2009 to see anything substantial.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...