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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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18 minutes ago, Wynter said:

This is why I pay no attention whatsoever to charts beyond 144. Been following this forum for 8 years now, and learned pretty quickly that the best cold spells usually show up in the reliable when no-one expects them. Spent many a Winter chasing epic cold shots in the far reaches of FI only to be disappointed time and time again. This is why I've always been an advocate of a 1-144hr model forum, without the hype and emotion of the hunt for cold/heat in the depths of FI.

I quite agree but I have had this conversation on a number of occasions with Paul and the team and I'm afraid there is no easy answer.The short version has been tried alongside the search for cold and it's been found that very few post in it, me being one of them. Apparently the overwhelming consensus is very much for 'the thrill of the chase' and finding the magic bullet with perturbation 206 at day 15

Edited by knocker
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There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at i

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Being into photography, the sheer beauty of it

Posted Images

3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

On two Brian gaze is saying milder air wins through middle of next week ?

Well considering our default weather pattern is Atlantic driven, he might well be correct. Then again, he might not be. 

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A level 2 cold weather alert is in force for parts of England from Friday to Monday with an 80% chance of severe cold weather

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:06 on Wed 27 Nov 2019

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0000 on Friday 29th November and 0900 on Monday 2nd December in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Change to colder condition overnight into Friday and through the weekend, with some very cold overnight temperatures and widespread frosts likely across the northern half of England. Daytime temperatures also remaining in the low single figures of Celsius, especially across rural parts. Mostly places dry, although a few very isolated wintry showers are possible across northeastern coasts. Overnight mist and freezing fog patches are possible across central England, leading to a cold day Saturday. Across the far south and southwest, temperatures could recover a little Saturday, with a small chance of rain. Staying cold, but dry for most Sunday and into Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

All that promise in the charts during the Autumn,with Southerly tracking lows and very cold air up in the Arctic looking like flooding South for a prolonged period of time,and all we get is a couple of cold  days at the weekend ,before a huge pattern change to Zonal dross.

 

 

Maybe our luck will change and and we actually get a bitter spell in January for once!

It’s been the same theme in recent years with promising charts during autumn, only for it to go belly up as winter arrives!  This year looking like no exception.

Edited by Don
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2 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s been the same theme in recent years with promising charts during autumn, only for it to go belly up as winter arrives!

Exactly, it's because the PV isn't really developed in Nov, so when it is, it means zonality for us by Dec, not sure why it's changed though from 25 or so years ago?, maybe less aggressive PV back then?

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I’m not too fussed if the models show mild. Meteorologically, I’d rather the cold materialise in a month’s time when we can make better use of it. Cold spells of any significance are very rare at this time of year.

 

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11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Cold spells of any significance are very rare at this time of year.

 

They are not supposed to be that rare actually, back in the 80's it was more common with a cold december than late winter cold (jan&feb)

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14 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

They are not supposed to be that rare actually, back in the 80's it was more common with a cold december than late winter cold (jan&feb)

I was referring more to recent years. Cold spells in general seem to be much rarer these days at any point in winter.

Long term guidance seems to favour a mild winter, but then again that’s just going with the form horse.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

A level 2 cold weather alert is in force for parts of England from Friday to Monday with an 80% chance of severe cold weather

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:06 on Wed 27 Nov 2019

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0000 on Friday 29th November and 0900 on Monday 2nd December in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Change to colder condition overnight into Friday and through the weekend, with some very cold overnight temperatures and widespread frosts likely across the northern half of England. Daytime temperatures also remaining in the low single figures of Celsius, especially across rural parts. Mostly places dry, although a few very isolated wintry showers are possible across northeastern coasts. Overnight mist and freezing fog patches are possible across central England, leading to a cold day Saturday. Across the far south and southwest, temperatures could recover a little Saturday, with a small chance of rain. Staying cold, but dry for most Sunday and into Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

You've got to be kidding me...is this the world we live in now? It will be getting a bit cooler,not cold,not daytime sub zero by any means. Disruption? Health risk?

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

So where do we stand today?

(SNIPPED)

I haven't mentioned the strat yet, here zonal winds chart from today's 0z:

image.thumb.jpg.613d2318d9303cb680e6fa2383cd18d9.jpg

More members going under!  But I know there is maybe an issue whether the GEFS is on the same page as the higher resolution op runs.  But the signal increases anyway.  

So, to my mind, there is still no evidence of a consistent ramp up of the trop PV, yet, and, as evidenced by varying runs above, and on ensembles, evidence of a trop vortex completely at sea.  All possibilities remain open for me as we transition on Sunday to winter proper...

Regards

Mike  

interesting you talk about the Strat according to the Met guys yesterday on Weather studio the zonal wind always has decreased but it will increase again mid month and at the moment they do not see any sign of a SSW

Edited by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary charts removed to save space.
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29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I have pointed out the last few days how the extended ECM mean falls away again after a mild start... Tonight's mean also highlighting this. The extended mean to nearly mid December is showing a mean of close to - 2 in the Midlands, and closer to - 4C in Scotland. So for me, we can forget about a mild dominated December!! Time to revise your extended forecast again exeter....... ?

Wait, what? You say 'nearly mid December' but then you forecast a whole month ahead?

Also, could you explain your comment re Met Office? I can't see anything in their extended forecast that points to a mild dominated December?!

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Its been a fairly seasonal autumn this year, no silly mild weather, quite a bit of rain, yes some places have seen very significant amounts, but it hasn't been uniform. Apart from the past few days, it has been a classic autumn temp wise in the sense that is has got colder and colder as it has moved on.

However, one notable absence has been the complete absence of any storm activity or even strong winds - absolutely nothing here, unusual given it has been largely atlantic dominated, all symptomatic of the shallow depth and position of low pressure carried by a predominantly southerly tracking jetstream.

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0000 on Friday 29th November and 0900 on Monday 2nd December in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Utterly ridiculous - BBC at lunch were predicting near 4c in the north and 6/7c in the south at the weekend and don't forget winter starts on Sunday...I've got winter records going back to 1983 which matches those at the start of the season quite a few times and colder so how can that be severe?, what a snowflake nation we've become!

Interesting so what would that have made late November early December 2010 then?...catastrophically cold maybe. chuckle!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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1 hour ago, markyo said:

You've got to be kidding me...is this the world we live in now? It will be getting a bit cooler,not cold,not daytime sub zero by any means. Disruption? Health risk?

That's rather harsh, don't you think? It's aimed at the most vulnerable people.

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6 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly ridiculous - BBC at lunch were predicting near 4c in the north and 6/7c in the south at the weekend and don't forget winter starts on Sunday...I've got winter records going back to 1983 which matches those at the start of the season quite a few times and colder so how can that be severe?, what a snowflake nation we've become!

Interesting so what would that have made late November early December 2010 then?...catastrophically cold maybe. chuckle!

So true,couldn't agree more. 

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10 hours ago, Mapantz said:

That's rather harsh, don't you think? It's aimed at the most vulnerable people.

Aimed at vulnerable people or not, surely you can’t agree a couple degrees below average is classed as ‘severe cold’..

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11 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Wait, what? You say 'nearly mid December' but then you forecast a whole month ahead?

Also, could you explain your comment re Met Office? I can't see anything in their extended forecast that points to a mild dominated December?!

Just last week, a met office spokesman said on a radio station that they expected December to be mainly mild and unsettled. I try not to discredit them if I can Mapantz.... But this organisation will turn around and say its looking like a milder winter, and when asked if they think a mild Xmas is looking likely.... They will say..... Its far to early to be forecasting that far ahead! They kind of contradict themselves!! I mean heaven forbid... What on earth made them stick to a cold and blocked prognosis last year for weeks on end, when it was clear this outcome was never going to materialise! 

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On 26/11/2019 at 21:34, Don said:

Problem is, watching the latest winter update from Gavs Weather Vids, shows the North Atlantic temperature profile is moving away from a -NAO signal, the North East Pacific remains warm and the ENSO region neutral.  These are not good signs for a cold winter in North West Europe.  Also, the long range models remain as bullish as ever for a mild season.  The only real positive we seem to have this year is solar minimum which alone probably won’t be enough.  I think our only hope is a SSW which isn’t looking likely for the foreseeable.  Haven’t seen it but apparently there is a video from the Metoffice explaining why they are forecasting a mild winter with GLOSEA5 not seeing a SSW anytime soon.  Remember it picked out the SSW very well last year, the issue being we did not benefit from it.  We may have had a ticket last year but didn’t win the prize.  However, we may not even have a ticket this year?!  I’m not throwing in the towel before winter has started but, I have a feeling it will be close by for much of the time!  Lets hope come the end of February we can look back at this post and laugh!

Those LRF signals again Don! I think far to much is read into those AO predictions as well. We had quite a few who said summer would be a complete write off based on those - AO musings! I pointed out a couple of weeks ago about Jon hammond saying there was a lot of head scratching going on this year, regarding the winter ahead! Contradicting signals, and some signals over riding others! There are no concrete signals on this coming winter if you ask me. Personally, and this may seem lame... I don't think for a minute that after last years cold fail from exeter, they would stick there neck on the line for a 2nd year running, by going for an all out cold prognosis!! I feel its possible that this year they have played the law of averages solution, with the knowledge that a UK winter is more likely to be mild, than cold!! You could kind of make a prediction for a UK winter to be milder than average, and be correct 80/90% of the time, without even looking at the models!! That doesn't make it correct though! Fascinating winter ahead in my opinion, most definitely I feel more action than last years narnia winter that completely failed. 

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