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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Realistic expectations Matt.

UK winters tend to range between cool and mild.

Aye, and even warm, especially Feb, '98 was close to 20 degrees in some areas, Feb '19 was also warm and sunny as well from about 20th with 20 degrees even broken, but of course wouldn't say no to that

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There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at i

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Being into photography, the sheer beauty of it

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22 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My god, I've had a few hours away from here today.... Now I wished I would have made it a few weeks!!! We can't get cold snaps anymore!! We are not going to have an SSW! winter is over!! Talk about throw in the dam towel a week before winter has even began!! That's my rant over.... Time to reach for the prozac ?

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Haha, aww matt, im the biggest cold ramper out there , i will read your posts they are great.

This old man gets easily downbeat.

Keep up the good work m8.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Me neither, that was the point I was making yesterday. 

Steve often touches on the AO index and record low values etc. However, looking at the latter stages of the ECM, we'd be seeing some extreme +NAO values more than anything else.

I touched last year on the fact that very mild Decembers tend not to be a good omen for cold Januaries (given obvious stray examples of course). Got slated for saying it last year but it turned out to be the case. We run the real risk of a mild December again this year, unless we can pull the Euro high far enough N to allow frost and fog across S UK.

The last few years has almost proved that a promising looking strat in October/early November is irrelevant as by the end of the month the polar vortex is out in force no matter what!

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5 hours ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Just watched the Met Office Live today and makes grim viewing for the potential warming. Now expected to be relatively minor, with little affect, and a return to a strong vortex by late December. ?

Looks like another cr*p winter at this early stage.  However, not all is lost with time in our side of course, but you’ve got to say it ain’t looking good!

Edited by Don
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15 minutes ago, Don said:

Looks like another cr*p winter at this early stage.  However, not all is lost with time in our side of course, but you’ve got to say it ain’t looking good!

And last year it was looking great!!! Somethings gotta give Don... ?

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha, aww matt, im the biggest cold ramper out there , i will read your posts they are great.

This old man gets easily downbeat.

Keep up the good work m8.

 Cheers NW... wasn't having a dig at you, just thought I would come on the moans thread.... To have a good moan.. ? I enjoy your posts to mate, keep ya chin up, sooner or later we will get a lucky break.... Your 47,and I'm 46.... I reckon if we don't get that lucky break by the time we hit 50.....then we should get back right on here....for a really big moan.. ??

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 Cheers NW... wasn't having a dig at you, just thought I would come on the moans thread.... To have a good moan.. ? I enjoy your posts to mate, keep ya chin up, sooner or later we will get a lucky break.... Your 47,and I'm 46.... I reckon if we don't get that lucky break by the time we hit 50.....then we should get back right on here....for a really big moan.. ??

see you in 3 years for a huge moan

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, they are 850's Its an Easterly packed December (admittedly quite dry at times but no doubt there would be enough snow to make it a stonker in places)

Here is the link for the whole run.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

 

TBH, feb...if the GFS is garbage, the CFS defies description. Has it ever been right?:gathering:

IMO, should this winter (that hasn't even started yet) get any worse, the NAVGEM, BOM and the JMA'll get trotted-out!:shok:

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5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Well, having read the thoughts of some I would expect to see a couple of very mild CET predictions for December, before Autumn ends.....?

I don’t think I’ll be going for a cold December ?

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Just now, DAVID SNOW said:

Very mild number to back up your thoughts would be my guess....:whistling:

I’m going to give it a few days.  Perhaps not very mild but more likely mild than cold is my thoughts.

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

And last year it was looking great!!! Somethings gotta give Don... ?

Problem is, watching the latest winter update from Gavs Weather Vids, shows the North Atlantic temperature profile is moving away from a -NAO signal, the North East Pacific remains warm and the ENSO region neutral.  These are not good signs for a cold winter in North West Europe.  Also, the long range models remain as bullish as ever for a mild season.  The only real positive we seem to have this year is solar minimum which alone probably won’t be enough.  I think our only hope is a SSW which isn’t looking likely for the foreseeable.  Haven’t seen it but apparently there is a video from the Metoffice explaining why they are forecasting a mild winter with GLOSEA5 not seeing a SSW anytime soon.  Remember it picked out the SSW very well last year, the issue being we did not benefit from it.  We may have had a ticket last year but didn’t win the prize.  However, we may not even have a ticket this year?!  I’m not throwing in the towel before winter has started but, I have a feeling it will be close by for much of the time!  Lets hope come the end of February we can look back at this post and laugh!

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35 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Well, having read the thoughts of some I would expect to see a couple of very mild CET predictions for December, before Autumn ends.....?

Aye, well I think you all know mine won't be cold! and of course over 100mm rain

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Mild!? Wet, yes. Soaking even. We're looking at 200%+ precipitation over the Sep-Oct autumn 3 months but mild!? My central heating boiler has asked for Christmas off due to cold temps and lack of sun for months. I've got the whip out.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_092019.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_102019.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

(Last image is false - click through to see UK Nov cold.)

Making it worse is no sign of the sun at all of late - none here at all since last Wednesday afternoon - only drizzle! Solid dark, wet gloom in a cool breeze for 7 days. Our kids have been driving us nuts for about a month because you can't do anything outdoors for mud and sopping wet leaves that councils don't clear up any more. They won't stop fighting and trashing the house!

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1 hour ago, Aleman said:

Mild!? Wet, yes. Soaking even. We're looking at 200%+ precipitation over the Sep-Oct autumn 3 months but mild!? My central heating boiler has asked for Christmas off due to cold temps and lack of sun for months. I've got the whip out.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_092019.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_102019.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

(Last image is false - click through to see UK Nov cold.)

Making it worse is no sign of the sun at all of late - none here at all since last Wednesday afternoon - only drizzle! Solid dark, wet gloom in a cool breeze for 7 days. Our kids have been driving us nuts for about a month because you can't do anything outdoors for mud and sopping wet leaves that councils don't clear up any more. They won't stop fighting and trashing the house!

Good luck with the kids! The lack of clear skies has even got tiresome for myself! Luckily for myself it is mild(still in shorts) so no heating on at home yet,may change for a few hours this weekend though by the looks of it, much more of a winters feel i suspect.

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All that promise in the charts during the Autumn,with Southerly tracking lows and very cold air up in the Arctic looking like flooding South for a prolonged period of time,and all we get is a couple of cold  days at the weekend ,before a huge pattern change to Zonal dross.

 

 

Maybe our luck will change and and we actually get a bitter spell in January for once!

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16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

All that promise in the charts during the Autumn,with Southerly tracking lows and very cold air up in the Arctic looking like flooding South for a prolonged period of time,and all we get is a couple of cold  days at the weekend ,before a huge pattern change to Zonal dross.

 

 

Maybe our luck will change and and we actually get a bitter spell in January for once!

This is why I pay no attention whatsoever to charts beyond 144. Been following this forum for 8 years now, and learned pretty quickly that the best cold spells usually show up in the reliable when no-one expects them. Spent many a Winter chasing epic cold shots in the far reaches of FI only to be disappointed time and time again. This is why I've always been an advocate of a 1-144hr model forum, without the hype and emotion of the hunt for cold/heat in the depths of FI.

Edited by Wynter
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6 minutes ago, Wynter said:

This is why I pay no attention whatsoever to charts beyond 144. Been following this forum for 8 years now, and learned pretty quickly that the best cold spells usually show up in the reliable when no-one expects them. Spent many a Winter chasing epic cold shots in the far reaches of FI only to be disappointed time and time again. This is why I've always been an advocate of a 1-144hr model forum, without the hype and emotion of the hunt for cold/heat in the depths of FI.

Agreed.

Those who do not learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.

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