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Wynter

Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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The consensus of opinion is that the gfs 0600 det run is generally tosh and should be binned. But if it upgrades the midnight then this will be the exception to the rule.

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

T168 and up she goes ?

B474A611-E6AD-4FC2-BF8C-3A1360B07E1F.png

Perfect for when I get to Riga?☃️

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Getting a bit fed up of the weather this Autumn. Lot of dull/damp and coldish days. Nothing much 'interesting', just loads of days with slight/moderate rainfall amounts, and persistent light-moderate rain.

On a personal note, I've got into kitesurfing this year and every weekend recently seems to have no/unfavourable wind, despite good conditions most of the week.
This weekend, the wind dies about 6am Saturday and comes back 6pm Sunday!
We're not even going to get any nice weather to compensate.. just yet another dull/damp day with light-moderate rain.

Autumn can be the best time for water and wind sports and the sea is not especially cold yet, so many people want to make the most of it before several colder months arrive, so I'm not keen on weeks taken up by air temperatures that are normal for January.
I've hardly been able to get out anyway.. part of a solution may be to not work 8:30-5 I guess.

Anyway while it was nice to see a few frosts just about hold on until dawn here, I'm not sure I like extended 'cold' in Autumn and the type of charts that many in the MOD thread go mad about from about Mid October with undercutting lows when they just give the above conditions here.

ECM shows another undercutting low giving yet more damp, useless weather next weekend so probably near the mark. :oldrolleyes:

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The madness that is Fantasy Island.

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I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96
I must not look at Charts after T+96

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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

ENS support a +NAO pattern in the mid-extended range, as do the GEFS.

Winter's certainly coming! ?

However, we'll just have to sit back and wait to see how things evolve (stating the obvious!).

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Another grey, damp November day.  I haven't seen much of the sun this past week.  When I was young I enjoyed this time of year. Full of atmosphere and I spent much time with friends messing about with old radios.  Looking back I wasn't messing about with transistor radios rather old valve radios. Putting a finger in the wrong place in an old radio running 350 volts HT could be fatal.  Puts some spice into life!

Sadly no more especially as I'm now practically housebound. ?

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8 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I must not look at Charts after T+96

Do yourself another favour and don't even bother looking at the GFS...seems like 9 out of 10 times all the 'madness' comes from that model. All I've been doing is following the ECM and wondering what the commotion is about.

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19 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Do yourself another favour and don't even bother looking at the GFS...seems like 9 out of 10 times all the 'madness' comes from that model. All I've been doing is following the ECM and wondering what the commotion is about.

Ha ha. Yes. But it’s the universally acclaimed Global Forecasting System! 

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More dull weather, more rain, no sun! A few nice cold days last week but it just will not hang around long enough to be enjoyed, and now it looks like things are back to the usual for as long as they eye can see in forecasting. Will not believe a word anything being said in the long range section when it comes to the forecasts of colder weather or anything different to what we seem to be experiencing currently. In fact I think its pretty pointless in following any of the models currently, they are about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

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All looking good for a cold start to winter in the MOD thread. Who's waiting for the models all to back track to zonal? ?

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12 hours ago, Petorious said:

More dull weather, more rain, no sun! A few nice cold days last week but it just will not hang around long enough to be enjoyed, and now it looks like things are back to the usual for as long as they eye can see in forecasting. Will not believe a word anything being said in the long range section when it comes to the forecasts of colder weather or anything different to what we seem to be experiencing currently. In fact I think its pretty pointless in following any of the models currently, they are about as useful as a chocolate tea pot.

Interesting view, and despite all the excitement here tonight you're probably still right. Any thoughts on the latest... 

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6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, no SSW anytime before xmas i would suggest now, vortex back over the pole and probably a zonal December will ensue after the early cold spell.

I have a feeling this winter will be mild now with the best chance of seeing some back end cold (apart from the early cold snap) although I'm not banking on it!  Most signals seem to be going against a cold winter, bar low solar activity now.  Make the most of the early cold spell because that could be your lot, especially for those of us in the south.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think, and someone might correct me here, that shows strat/trop coupling.

Right on cue for the start of winter.  Congratulations mild winter lovers!

Edited by Don

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3 hours ago, Wynter said:

All looking good for a cold start to winter in the MOD thread. Who's waiting for the models all to back track to zonal? ?

definitely I am, they normally do

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1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

To be honest frosty and dry is an improvement on the rain we've had all autumn and perhaps it's best to start small and take it from there. It's all a little bit too early in the game I feel....

dont we say this every winter??

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Straw clutching yet again?cold -cool spell then unsettled .struggling to see anything going forward but hey ho!!!?

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21 minutes ago, sausage said:

dont we say this every winter??

I'm not quite following what your agenda is here!! In all honesty it would be a complete waste of time to say at this stage, that the coming winter will be either very mild, or cold.... Its far to early to make those conclusions. The fact is, that we have a colder spell on the way.... Could be some sharp frosts, could be a wee bit of snow.... Its a possibility. Beyond that is open to scrutiny!! Regardless of what exter say. We start with a clean slate come this Sunday... 1st of December... Let's see how the first few weeks unfold, before we begin to make any sweeping judgement on a long season ahead. I pointed out after Sundays impressive model runs, that it was changing on a daily basis... Just because today, things look less promising, doesn't mean tomorrow won't be more encouraging again. 

Yesterday is the past, tomorrow is the future, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm not quite following what your agenda is here!! In all honesty it would be a complete waste of time to say at this stage, that the coming winter will be either very mild, or cold.... Its far to early to make those conclusions. The fact is, that we have a colder spell on the way.... Could be some sharp frosts, could be a wee bit of snow.... Its a possibility. Beyond that is open to scrutiny!! Regardless of what exter say. We start with a clean slate come this Sunday... 1st of December... Let's see how the first few weeks unfold, before we begin to make any sweeping judgement on a long season ahead. I pointed out after Sundays impressive model runs, that it was changing on a daily basis... Just because today, things look less promising, doesn't mean tomorrow won't be more encouraging again. 

Yesterday is the past, tomorrow is the future, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present. 

Fantastic.god bless us all in the words of Bob cratchet.anyway looks like s mobile set up east to west?

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 A3-5 cold spell/snap was called and looks likely. 10 plus days we look for further northerly plunges. Sat in Bournemouth I need something special but love seeing pics from fellow net weather nutters of snow. FWIW we can and do get cold and snow without ssw. We are only here for a few months a year, be nice to us??

Edited by That ECM

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SO,get the next few crud days out of the way and a nice little cold spell, then the next chase for the a North westerly-

Could be a lot worse IMO-

Another decent warming event on GFS and zonal winds are forecast to decrease..

 

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