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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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7 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Stick down the next 10 winters as mild and wet.

I'd wager you wont be far out.

You're probably correct.  Would probably get 7/10 right, there about!

Edited by Don

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1 hour ago, Don said:

The latest monthly outlook from the BBC.  Currently not looking good for early winter with analogues supporting the long range models towards wet and mild conditions.  However, they include the caveat of a 25-30% chance of it remaining colder and drier for late November/early December.

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

 

Analogues vs continuous integration. I’d go with the latter

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33 minutes ago, Don said:

You're probably correct.  Would probably get 7/10 right, there about!

That would seem reasonable...unfortunately.

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51 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Stick down the next 10 winters as mild and wet.

I'd wager you wont be far out.

err yes, and the 10 after that, wetter and milder still, 80's 90's gone now

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

err yes, and the 10 after that, wetter and milder still, 80's 90's gone now

Let’s all move to Scandinavia or Canada if that’s the case

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I'm not seeing anything in the mo barring a general autumn outlook with some UK and euro blocking????

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Quite a deep area of low pressure today. We dropped to a low of 969.4hPa which is actually the lowest since February 2014.

November is starting on a wet note aswell, with 11.0mm already in less than two days. This Autumn is just 12mm short of the rainfall total of Autumn 2000 so its looking like we'll smash that.

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7 minutes ago, reef said:

Quite a deep area of low pressure today. We dropped to a low of 969.4hPa which is actually the lowest since February 2014.

November is starting on a wet note aswell, with 11.0mm already in less than two days. This Autumn is just 12mm short of the rainfall total of Autumn 2000 so its looking like we'll smash that.

Almost as low as 10th December 2017 which got down to 970.8mb. Today bottomed out at 972mb here. That's also a staggering stat for you re autumn 2000 given how wet that autumn was!

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4 hours ago, Don said:

What, you mean a strong probability for a mild/wet winter, but with a smaller probability of a colder one?  If I were a betting man I would go with a mild wet winter this year, but have a feeling it could be one of those that goes the other way.  However, I think that's unlikely at this stage but the end of November/early December could give us a clue as to where we might be heading!  Gavs Weather Vids posted an interesting video this afternoon with unusual weather patterns setting up in November with low pressure systems taking unusual tracks which 'could' be a sign of things to come later on, but it's very early days and may not come to anything.

Yes, November is traditionally a 'westerly' month, with the PV ramping into gear and conversely the atlantic revving into full turbo charge ready for its peak in December. Its always noteworthy when low pressure takes on unusual paths in November, a diving low into Europe rather than seeing them move on there normal west-east trajectory - it can be a signal things aren't perhaps 'normal' in the atmosphere and can suggest a winter of different discourse than the atlantic westerlies ruling the roost at least inpart.. 2009 was a case in point, a low pressure nosedived down through the UK around the 8th I think.. and the rest of the month saw low pressure notable to penetrate eastwards..  2010 just saw low pressure ebbing away in situ against heights to the NE.. an unusual month. Nov 1996 was interesting as well, with another slider low down the west side of the UK around the 18th giving low level snow. All three Novembers were followed by very wintry Decembers.. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

err yes, and the 10 after that, wetter and milder still, 80's 90's gone now

Doesn't always follow that a milder winter ought to be wetter

192.9mm

270.7mm

217.3mm

Those are the rainfall totals of the last 3 winters for England and Wales and the wettest of them was the coolest.

Also the cold winter of 2009-10 was even wetter with 271.6mm and the winter of 2012-13 was wet as well with 316.5mm. 

 

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So as I pulled my boots on this morning to drag a seriously unimpressed hound out for his morning walkies, I knew it was going to be quite misty over the fields this morning, but I wasn’t expecting to see the sun breaking through when I set out. 
Sadly we don’t seem to get the classic grey foggy November days around here anymore... Maybe it’s the lack of coal fires? I dunno. But there is something about a misty foggy day in the autumn that just seems right. :oldgood::air_kiss:

3DF6D097-3BD8-46BA-A7E4-67DFAB920AFB.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

So as I pulled my boots on this morning to drag a seriously unimpressed hound out for his morning walkies, I knew it was going to be quite misty over the fields this morning, but I wasn’t expecting to see the sun breaking through when I set out. 
Sadly we don’t seem to get the classic grey foggy November days around here anymore... Maybe it’s the lack of coal fires? I dunno. But there is something about a misty foggy day in the autumn that just seems right. :oldgood::air_kiss:

3DF6D097-3BD8-46BA-A7E4-67DFAB920AFB.jpeg

Oh yes , i do love cold dry foggy November days.

Stunning photo 🙂

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A week of gloom finally ends as the cloud clears off to the east. 

7A1B1D11-1DE6-4DEB-B49E-7704CFFE7C0D.jpeg

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5 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

So as I pulled my boots on this morning to drag a seriously unimpressed hound out for his morning walkies, I knew it was going to be quite misty over the fields this morning, but I wasn’t expecting to see the sun breaking through when I set out. 
Sadly we don’t seem to get the classic grey foggy November days around here anymore... Maybe it’s the lack of coal fires? I dunno. But there is something about a misty foggy day in the autumn that just seems right. :oldgood::air_kiss:

3DF6D097-3BD8-46BA-A7E4-67DFAB920AFB.jpeg

I've seen a few days in recent years, though only a few,  with proper fog that is a nightmare to drive in, with visibility well under 50m, maybe only 20m or even less, and slow to lift. I think they are increasing in frequency again (no to be confused with regular autumnal misty days where visibility is 100m-200m and quickly burns off). My pet theory is that it is down to the growing number of wood stoves in use, now reckoned to be over 2 million and rising about 200k per year. For all they are claimed to be more efficent and cleaner than old ones, as they burn at higher tempatures with longer flues, Increasing evidence is showing they become less efficient with age, people still fit some (second hand?) illegally and burn rubbish and unseasoned or treated wood on them. They are not environmentally friendly at all in much practical use and are downright dangerous where they are being seriously abused. There are several in my semi-rural neighbourhood and I have mixed views on them but I am growing to dislike them. Sometimes a passing waft brings back seasonal memories or you enjoy the cosy glow of a stove in a pub. Sometimes, neighbours' smoke stinks our house out like it's November the 5th. There is growing talk about restricting their sale due to air pollution they are causing. Anyway, I suspect they are contributing to a slight trend of occasional thicker fogs.

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WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

A wood stove emits more harmful air particulates than a diesel truck. Does their newfound popularity in cities threaten to wipe out progress in reducing air...

 

 

 

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Looks like turning much colder with temps quite a bit below average, nice for November.

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Hopefully all this model watching leads to lampost watching!!!

image.thumb.png.9cb9502664f40180fc3bfb1528d4d865.png

 

Edited by V for Very Cold
typo

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On 03/11/2019 at 08:23, Dangerous55019 said:

So as I pulled my boots on this morning to drag a seriously unimpressed hound out for his morning walkies, I knew it was going to be quite misty over the fields this morning, but I wasn’t expecting to see the sun breaking through when I set out. 
Sadly we don’t seem to get the classic grey foggy November days around here anymore... Maybe it’s the lack of coal fires? I dunno. But there is something about a misty foggy day in the autumn that just seems right. :oldgood::air_kiss:

3DF6D097-3BD8-46BA-A7E4-67DFAB920AFB.jpeg

There have been a couple lovely foggy mornings around here recently

28th October

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A slight fogbow

lqn6kC2.jpg

 

3rd November

Ua7dZYM.jpgpv8mgrK.jpgDQuZToQ.jpgZ55ndL4.jpg

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Some great pics of fog and/or mist there Weather-history.

As an aside, I think it's worth pointing out what I was taught many moons ago about the difference between fog and mist when I studied surface chemistry. It was not the modern definition that thinner stuff is mist and thicker stuff is fog. I was tought fog was a colloidal suspension of water in air, i.e. it was stable and did not readily coalesce and drop out. Stability was provided by electrostatic charge that repelled drops from hitting each other and becoming heavy enough to fall. Fog might wet some objects and not others, depending on the static charge of the other object or surface and might even be repelled by the floor. I think fog's water droplets mostly picked up charge by precipitating onto nucleating subtances in the air that were already charged - smoke or soot from fires, or some other pollution. Fog needs more forced movement to overcome the electric charge to make it combine so it can hang around all day if it's calm and the sun does not have the power to burn it all off

Mist is water droplets with no electrostatic charge or not enough to prevent coalescing so mist is not stabilised and could not last all day since the slightest movement would see the drops combine and fall. Mist is not repelled from the floor and is much more likely to coalesce with natural or man-made air movements (traffic, thermals) so tends to be fleeting. Flows off a field tend to be moist air flowing over a colder drier area to form mist that will soon fall to the ground or you might get mist where a water feature creates a pocket of moist air that condenses on a cold night. These could both form fog, though, if some kind of pollution (or natural phenomenon) caused the forming droplets to become similarly charged and repel each other.

So the difference is electrostatic charge. This means it is possible to have mist that is thicker than fog but it is more likely to coalesce quickly and so less likely to be seen. Even thin mist is likely to drop out quickly onto the floor or onto plants it blows past. Fog's much greater stability means it can last for days on end in cold weather, though I've not seen that happen for decades. We don't seem to have as much charged particulate pollution needed to form fog these days.

That was my understanding from what I was taught. It seemed simple enough at the time. Now somebody tell me this is no longer correct and start giving me a lesson on cloud formation!

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The met office have just issued a yellow warning from 6am Thursday to 6am Friday for prolonged rain in the following areas

East Midlands

  • Derbyshire
  • Lincolnshire
  • Nottinghamshire

North East England

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • Stockton-on-Tees

Yorkshire & Humber

  • East Riding of Yorkshire
  • Kingston upon Hull
  • North East Lincolnshire
  • North Lincolnshire
  • North Yorkshire
  • South Yorkshire
  • West Yorkshire
  • York

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings

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WHEN is it going to SNOW? Halloween is over, Bonfire night heading to old news so the next thing is "will it snow, will it be a White Christmas" for the tabloid headlines.

Today we've had an enquiry about likelihood of snow, any real decent snow coming up, this winter. They did ask for evidence, which is encouraging. (it wasn't the Express)

So what can we say, we can't state there will be another Beast from the East which would be the best answer for the media. There is no blanket of snow in the 7-10 day forecast and no particular signs Nov into Dec. 

Yet we know if they ask elsewhere, someone will create what the newspapers want , the hype. Cold weather bingo begins - the worst/coldest winter in ** years, ** days of snow.Bookies have slashed odds on a White Christmas. 

The endless rain and flooding won't be keeping the online interest, the winter stories are in demand. How to manage the response and stay involved without the Fake news?

expressshite0511.png

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39 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

WHEN is it going to SNOW? Halloween is over, Bonfire night heading to old news so the next thing is "will it snow, will it be a White Christmas" for the tabloid headlines.

Today we've had an enquiry about likelihood of snow, any real decent snow coming up, this winter. They did ask for evidence, which is encouraging. (it wasn't the Express)

So what can we say, we can't state there will be another Beast from the East which would be the best answer for the media. There is no blanket of snow in the 7-10 day forecast and no particular signs Nov into Dec. 

Yet we know if they ask elsewhere, someone will create what the newspapers want , the hype. Cold weather bingo begins - the worst/coldest winter in ** years, ** days of snow.Bookies have slashed odds on a White Christmas. 

The endless rain and flooding won't be keeping the online interest, the winter stories are in demand. How to manage the response and stay involved without the Fake news?

expressshite0511.png

Go the other way, by telling them it is going to be the warmest winter in 100 years! Still newsworthy and statistically more chance to come true than the usual Express weather headlines.

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