Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Wynter

Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Could be even more trouble ahead with flooding if latest charts come off. 100mm in 10 days - while not extreme - have to bear in mind the quantity of rain already fallen in places. Besides - the ECM charts for D6-D10, if verified, are ripe for something even more significant to arise. 

I've only just realised that i'm 71.2mm above my Autumn average for rain. 329.4mm so far.. and November still to go! ☔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I've only just realised that i'm 71.2mm above my Autumn average for rain. 329.4mm so far.. and November still to go! ☔

That's huge compared to the 199.8mm so far here. Although even here it's already been the wettest autumn in 4 years of recording as the previous years have ended up with around 150-170mm during the autumn so it's going to end up well above that this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but as we all know, childhood weather is over, winters not just getting warmer, but all year round becoming more low pressure dominated, flooding/washout days used to be 1 in 5 year event up to say 2000, but now it's frequent, rain all day the norm

Yes, i don't disagree.NW of England is really bad, western facing hills in particular..

Finding a stable high is very difficult, any we do get in Autumn/winter are usually centred around Mardid or Rome, meaning the jet is either slamming into the UK or to the North of the UK.

Its obviously a point of intense debate around the globe.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, matt111 said:

That's huge compared to the 199.8mm so far here. Although even here it's already been the wettest autumn in 4 years of recording as the previous years have ended up with around 150-170mm during the autumn so it's going to end up well above that this year.

I've recorded 186mm so far this autumn while not as much as you still probably the wettest period in a few years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The big cold front over Europe has passed through, finally bringing the Indian summer to an end. It got up to 27.3C in Kráľová pri Senci (just east of Bratislava) on the 24th, apparently the latest on record such a high temperature has been recorded in Slovakia. Körösszakáli in Hungary reached 29.1C on the same day!

Currently 10C and overcast with light rain. This week should bring single-digit highs and air frosts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Afternoon all 

I have what I think a very interesting observation.  I've just been into my kitchen to make a brew and in my garden I have a evergreen berry bush.

And there I noticed a black bird eating the berries like it was it's last meal

I've lived here over 30 years and never seen such activity in late October 

Are the black birds picking up on something. 

The 06z is interesting showing the possibility of much colder air 

Before we get there.. problematic rain could be an issue for already flood hit areas 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sorepaw1 said:

Good Afternoon all 

I have what I think a very interesting observation.  I've just been into my kitchen to make a brew and in my garden I have a evergreen berry bush.

And there I noticed a black bird eating the berries like it was it's last meal

I've lived here over 30 years and never seen such activity in late October 

Are the black birds picking up on something. 

The 06z is interesting showing the possibility of much colder air 

Before we get there.. problematic rain could be an issue for already flood hit areas 

Hi,

Most birds love berries.

The Blackbird is omnivorous, eating a wide range of insects, earthworms,berries, and fruits. 

Edited by Sceptical

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had the first ground frost of the season with an overnight min of 0.8C.  Saw it on neighbouring roofs.  Bright during the morning but intermittent banks of cloud in the afternoon. With the dark evenings on us unfortunately it's now SAD season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forgetting what those long range winter forecast models are predicting, for me these current GFS and ECM charts are screaming potential. Slowly the colder uppers are edging down towards the U.K., the PV doesn’t look organised, plenty of scope for a late Nov freeze and with long nights and memories of 2010, late Nov can be pretty potent in the right set up!! 
It’s also looking pretty good for the Alps as we move into Nov, get those lows down there towards the med then it’s game on. 

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw a bright green meteor flying low across the W sky at about 18:55. Seeing reports from other locations too. Anyone else see it?

Edited by cheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Was expecting the first half of this week to be dry. 

download.thumb.png.99765e1c47776171f0484f2ed697de52.png

models/forecasts underestimate that setup, lt's knowing the location, like if we have a NW'ly with highish pressure, the forecast will be dry for E Cheshire/Staffs/Shrops, when actually it will be wet

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

models/forecasts underestimate that setup, lt's knowing the location, like if we have a NW'ly with highish pressure, the forecast will be dry for E Cheshire/Staffs/Shrops, when actually it will be wet

the  more  i look at the gfs  after  wednesday  and into fantasy world  the more horrible it looks were all over its  so wet  could be problems  ahead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, tinybill said:

the  more  i look at the gfs  after  wednesday  and into fantasy world  the more horrible it looks were all over its  so wet  could be problems  ahead

A southerly NW-SE aligned jet is the reason why, low pressure elongating and making a beeline for England and Wales rather than Scotland, and becoming slow moving.. lots of rain, wind and feeling preety cold as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to say the ecm charts posted In the mod thread  for Saturday & Sunday looked very poor as poor can be or rain and flooding ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It has been a wet autumn so far but where are the gales? It has not been a stormy autumn so far and although the charts suggesting more unsettled weather, it doesn't look your classic stormy, intense lows pummelling in. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Was expecting the first half of this week to be dry. 

download.thumb.png.99765e1c47776171f0484f2ed697de52.png

So were we. Dry to Wednesday night it said at the weekend. Then local news on Sunday night said Monday would be the last nice day to do anything. Kids were acting up so went to Bridlington for the afternoon armed with new skateboards to learn with. It rained 3 hours from arrival. Slow fish and chip lunch indoors. Walked through a bit of light drizzle to cafe and slow coffee and ice creams. Cleared about 3:30 and breeze got colder. Took a quick look at harbour in a flash of sun before it went behind buildings and went home. 6C drive back in twilight with puddles, salty spray on screen, many bare trees and mist forming. It felt like winter had started early. At least I'd made stew and dumplings from Sunday's leftover roast so dinner a warming dinner was no hassle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Aleman said:

So were we. Dry to Wednesday night it said at the weekend. Then local news on Sunday night said Monday would be the last nice day to do anything. Kids were acting up so went to Bridlington for the afternoon armed with new skateboards to learn with. It rained 3 hours from arrival. Slow fish and chip lunch indoors. Walked through a bit of light drizzle to cafe and slow coffee and ice creams. Cleared about 3:30 and breeze got colder. Took a quick look at harbour in a flash of sun before it went behind buildings and went home. 6C drive back in twilight with puddles, salty spray on screen, many bare trees and mist forming. It felt like winter had started early. At least I'd made stew and dumplings from Sunday's leftover roast so dinner a warming dinner was no hassle.

If wind is NNE'ly, then those areas will be wet, ignore forecasts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shame here last few days never dropped below 5c due to on and off cloud cover, still felt nice and seasonal though with yesterday’s high of only 10.4c 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its comfortably the wettest October on record here now back to 1980 with 161.6mm, smashing the previous record of 120.2mm (1980). Locally the wettest October was 1903 with 157.6mm so it looks likely that one has gone too.

Autumn as a whole now has 271.6mm, so it looks very likely we'll beat 2000 now which saw 294.2mm. 1880 was the wettest Autumn locally at 359.4mm, so a decent chance of beating that one too.

October is also looking below average here aswell with a mean of 9.8C at the moment, which is 1.0C below the 1981-2010 average and the 8th coldest in 40 years.

Edited by reef

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...