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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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UK winters for the years '69-'70, '76-'77, '83-'84, based on the MetOffice CETs. Cool-cold months experienced in the UK during those winters.

 

1969 -110th coldest December - 3.3

1970 -105th coldest February - 2.9

1970  -56th coldest March - 3.7

1970 -60th coldest April - 6.7

 

1976 -47th coldest December - 2.0

1977 -133rd coldest January - 2.8

1977 -102nd coldest April - 7.2

 

1983 -289th coldest December - 5.2

1984 -128th coldest February - 3.3

1984 -125th coldest March - 4.7

1984 -44th coldest May - 9.9

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

December 1976 is the forgotten cold one. Never hear about this despite having a CET of 2.0C

Was it a snowy month, though?

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They might have been in America though.

EDIT : who knows anyway, he might be referring to cold ENSO episodes or something else.

End of Jan 77 saw the Blizzard in Buffalo with Snow depths of 2.5m

Blizzard_of_1977.jpg
EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
4 minutes ago, Don said:

Was it a snowy month, though?

Manchester Airport reported 20 days of falling sleet/snow that month. 

The reason why it should have been notable and more memorable to me is that it had been so long since such a cold month, It was the coldest month since February 1969, so you would have thought it would have stood out and been a bit of a shock after such a long time. No one really mentions it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z is a mess but should i discard of it because it doesn't show what cold lovers want!,no but it doesn't tie in with the other models as in colder synoptic

i wont chew on any further because there is still a lot to be resolved. 

More runs needed

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Consistent with the +NAO then!!

Is that the same ec46 that forcasted northern blocking throughout last winter,but it never materialised.

Don't know why anyone pays much attention to whatever it shows.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

I see the annual machinations and the "not so" merry-go-round of emotions has started in earnest on the Model Thread. 

The Rollercoaster debate about the waxing and waning of Forecast Models and will it won't it Snow in December, never fails to materialise.

I have been a Member of NW since January 2005 and "twas ever the case".

The most sensible Post I've seen on that Thread in recent Days IMO, came from FEB1991BLIZZARD yesterday evening, when he stated, Quote:

"True but its the norm though, 2010 was an anomaly, i know you can get big snowfalls in December but usually they are marginal like 1990, rarely do we get a consistently blocked December".  

I have been a close observer of the Weather since I was 10 Years old and I'm now 64 and I'd like a £1 for every Synoptic Chart I've looked at in that time. I'd be on the way to being a pretty rich man, by now. 

Cold and Snowy Decembers are not the norm, in these Isles (especially in Southern portions of the U.K.).

December 1981 and 2010, are very much the exception to the "Rule". The fact that there are 29 Years between these very cold and snowy Months, bears testament to that fact. These 2 Decembers with a CET of 0.3c and - 0.7c respectively, stand out like a "sore thumb" in the data set.

In my 50+ Years of being interested in Meteorology, I've witnessed relatively few examples of pre Christmas Snow.

Even the epic Winter of 1962/63 (I have some vague memories of, as I was 7 Years of age at the time), only began in earnest on Boxing Day, '62. The cold and snowy Winter of 1978/79, didn't "get going" until 30th/31st of December, down South (some Days earlier, oop North). But in saying that '78/'79 wasn't a Snow Fest throughout, there were some milder incursions as well, especially in the South.

We had a run of Cold and at times Snowy Winters in the mid 1980's. 1984/85 (But reserved for Jan/Feb). The bitterly cold February of 1986 (CET of -1.1c), although Snowfall was mainly light, apart from Eastern most Districts. The bitter cold and Snow of the 1986/87 Winter was confined to a 2 Week spell, in mid-January.

So those Members "hanging their hats" on a cold and snowy December may well be looking at a long and frustrating Month. In my experience (especially in my "neck of the woods" in S.E.London), cold and Snow are elusive beasts, pre-Xmas.

Take it from an "Oldie Coldie" who fully admits to have been someone who frequently joined the annual Rollercoaster of emotions at this time of the Year, "Patience is indeed an advisable virtue".

Regards,

Tom.    :hi: 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Can we possibly have winter discussion in the WINTER thread and not in here, the AUTUMN thread?

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The other event was the very severe gale of 2nd January 1976 that people tend to remember from that year. 

I remember that well, we had tall trees around our house (Firs and Spruces) and honestly thought one would come down on the house or nearby, it was scary stuff. I was 8 at the time and by far the strongest winds I'd experienced, I think the strongest winds were originally from the west and then more of a northerly direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

In my 50+ Years of being interested in Meteorology, I've witnessed relatively few examples of pre Christmas Snow.

You've forgotten 2009 Tom, snow before Xmas and after...and that is a rarity in itself only equalled by 1981 in my lifetime.

2017 was another example but on a far lesser scale which didn't last long...

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

As much as there are a lot of nonsense posts getting posted with wishful thinking in the Model output discussion thread at times. There are still a few people including myself who post realistic sensible post's on there.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

With all the swings from mild to cold and then back to mild again in a matter of hours.

Can someone please explain why we bother to look at these longer range predictive weather models as surely it's a total waste of time?

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
35 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

With all the swings from mild to cold and then back to mild again in a matter of hours.

Can someone please explain why we bother to look at these longer range predictive weather models as surely it's a total waste of time?

Curious isn't it? I guess as we move away from the current time to the far future the number of opportunities for tangents increases. I'm actually more surprised by curve balls that don't get predicted when they pop out of nowhere in the so called reliable time frame. I'd love to see how current models validate, is there an online tool for easily doing this? 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Curious isn't it? I guess as we move away from the current time to the far future the number of opportunities for tangents increases. I'm actually more surprised by curve balls that don't get predicted when they pop out of nowhere in the so called reliable time frame. I'd love to see how current models validate, is there an online tool for easily doing this? 

WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
3 hours ago, reef said:

Can we possibly have winter discussion in the WINTER thread and not in here, the AUTUMN thread?

Thanks

where is the winter thread?

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
5 hours ago, reef said:

Can we possibly have winter discussion in the WINTER thread and not in here, the AUTUMN thread?

Thanks

Perhaps the posts that were moved from the stratospheric thread into this thread should have gone in that thread in the first place?

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

No named storms so far this year lets see how far we can get this year without.... as we`ve had no gales except for the far SW tip.

As the jet is much further south to normal meaning the south is just getting with overhead lows or like tomorrow scenario a pasting for more severe floods,this next week looks like no exception.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Silly season started in the model thread again.Every run being dissected as if it’s gospel and going to verify,when nothing beyond 4-5 days max is ever close to being correct.

Happens every single winter season.

Thsts why I ignore the seasonal models  and monthly updates too,not possible to predict that far ahead,maybe never be possible.

Look at the previous forecasts over the years to see how inaccurate they are.

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Silly season started in the model thread again.Every run being dissected as if it’s gospel and going to verify,when nothing beyond 4-5 days max is ever close to being correct.

Happens every single winter season.

Thsts why I ignore the seasonal models  and monthly updates too,not possible to predict that far ahead,maybe never be possible.

Look at the previous forecasts over the years to see how inaccurate they are.

 

This is the wisest post all week (but I feel compelled to check each run like a nervous wreck...). 

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