Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Something about Saturdays and washouts over the last few weeks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

A better than normal perfect early november day with plenty of sun light winds and some lying snow in the shade still and cold at 4.7c max.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

looking at the radar what coming  in via the west  don't  look good news  for the flooded  north

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, tinybill said:

looking at the radar what coming  in via the west  don't  look good news  for the flooded  north

Tuesday is the worst, looks heavy all day here, and maybe the north

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
26 minutes ago, knocker said:

Apparently the building blocks are now in place. I fear the worst.8)

You’ve just got the hump @knocker because there’s no southwest mild gank anywhere to be seen in the output 8)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You’ve just got the hump @knocker because there’s no southwest mild gank anywhere to be seen in the output 8)

I'd prefer the SW'lys, to the charts that are showing for next 2 weeks or so, no snow, no warmth, little dry weather

SW'lys returning in 5 weeks is my guess

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'd prefer the SW'lys, to the charts that are showing for next 2 weeks or so, no snow, no warmth, little dry weather

SW'lys returning in 5 weeks is my guess

See I’m the opposite . I love it dark, cold and wet . Don’t get me wrong I would like it more if it was freezing with blizzards for the next 3 months but that any gonna happen . Anything but mild SW winds will do me for now . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
42 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

See I’m the opposite . I love it dark, cold and wet . Don’t get me wrong I would like it more if it was freezing with blizzards for the next 3 months but that any gonna happen . Anything but mild SW winds will do me for now . 

you're not in the best location for wet, wanna swap locations

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

you're not in the best location for wet, wanna swap locations

South westerlies bring deluges here, as happened in Nov 2009 and Dec 2015, whilst large parts of the UK away from hilly western regions can be surprisingly dry. What has been interesting about the past few weeks is rainfall anomalies have brought wetter conditions relative to average to more central and eastern locations, whereas NW regions have been average or a bit below average.. lakes and rivers around here are quite low unusually.. and so far this autumn we have been spared flooding. Rain has been steady not the deluges we get when it comes embedded with tropical maritime airstreams. 

 

Back to discussion on autumn, it is around now thoughts tend to move towards winter, and a wintry feel starts to take hold overall, even when we are having temps in the balmy mid teens as can and often does happen well into November. Its been a very seasonal autumn so far, trending colder and colder, with some decent frosts, some bouts of rain, now some early snow for some more especially higher ground. One thing lacking has been strong winds or gales, indeed nothing really to speak of on that front.

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

Starting to feel rather depressed with all this wet weather, seems a full dry day is almost impossible. Starting to give looking at the long term model thread, as no matter what is being shown it just ends up being rain.

Seems while global warming is causing some parts of the world to burn, other areas to see giant cyclones/ hurricanes it seems the UK should drown.

Not sure if things will change anytime soon I want to see crisp cold morning, and more consistently dry weather with more just the average rainfall.

I know this is quite a moan but wow this is what constant rain does to you lol.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
10 hours ago, knocker said:

Apparently the building blocks are now in place. I fear the worst.8)

might  need the blocks  to keep the flood water  out!! not looking at all nice  at all this week,gfs is hinting it could get a lot colder  next week with the white stuff over  many parts  of the country

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Updated warning from 00:00 today until 12:00 tomorrow

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands

  • Derby
  • Derbyshire
  • West Midlands
  • Staffordshire
  • Stoke-on-Trent

Yorkshire & Humber

  • South Yorkshire
  • West Yorkshire

Headline

  • Frequent heavy showers likely to cause some flooding and transport disruption.

What to expect

  • Flooding of a few homes and businesses is likely
  • Bus and train services probably affected with journey times taking longer
  • Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer

Reason for update

  • Area of warning has been expanded to include more of West Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire.

Further details

Following recent wet weather and heavy overnight rain, frequent heavy showers continue on Monday afternoon, overnight and into the middle of Tuesday. A further 25 to 35 mm could fall in places, particularly over higher ground. Sleet or snow may affect highest level roads but only small accumulations are expected.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A yellow warning for heavy rain has been issued for Thursday

00:00 Thu 14 to 23:45 Thu 14

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands

  • Derby
  • Derbyshire
  • Leicester
  • Leicestershire
  • Lincolnshire
  • Northamptonshire
  • Nottingham
  • Nottinghamshire
  • Rutland

East of England

  • Bedford
  • Cambridgeshire
  • Central Bedfordshire
  • Essex
  • Hertfordshire
  • Luton
  • Norfolk
  • Peterborough
  • Southend-on-Sea
  • Suffolk
  • Thurrock

London & South East England

  • Bracknell Forest
  • Brighton and Hove
  • Buckinghamshire
  • East Sussex
  • Greater London
  • Kent
  • Medway
  • Milton Keynes
  • Oxfordshire
  • Reading
  • Slough
  • Surrey
  • West Berkshire
  • West Sussex
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • Wokingham

North East England

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

North West England

  • Cheshire East
  • Cheshire West and Chester
  • Greater Manchester
  • Halton
  • Lancashire
  • Merseyside
  • Warrington

South West England

  • Gloucestershire

Wales

  • Blaenau Gwent
  • Caerphilly
  • Cardiff
  • Conwy
  • Denbighshire
  • Flintshire
  • Gwynedd
  • Merthyr Tydfil
  • Monmouthshire
  • Newport
  • Powys
  • Rhondda Cynon Taf
  • Torfaen
  • Vale of Glamorgan
  • Wrexham

West Midlands

  • Herefordshire
  • Shropshire
  • Staffordshire
  • Stoke-on-Trent
  • Telford and Wrekin
  • Warwickshire
  • West Midlands Conurbation
  • Worcestershire

Yorkshire & Humber

  • East Riding of Yorkshire
  • Kingston upon Hull
  • North East Lincolnshire
  • North Lincolnshire
  • North Yorkshire
  • South Yorkshire
  • West Yorkshire
  • York

Headline

  • Periods of rain and hill snow may bring some disruption to transport.

What to expect

  • Flooding of a few homes and businesses is likely
  • Bus and train services probably affected with journey times taking longer
  • Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer

Further details

Periods of rain are expected to become widespread and locally heavy across parts of England and Wales through Thursday. Over western areas, particularly the higher ground of Wales, some snow is also likely, with local accumulations of a few cm possible. Rainfall totals of 15-30 mm are likely, with some spots, particularly higher ground, seeing isolated totals of 40-60 mm.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Look at the prediction made about the Autumn by this model - the most likely outcome didn't happen, in fact the least likely outcome happened.  

 

Indeed - will never understand why people get so hung up/flustered by these updates. (They should be taken in isolation - if it was showing the probability as the other way round I would still say the same)

On 30/08/2019 at 11:38, Summer Sun said:

August update

September to November

Temperature summary

For September and September-October-November as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 60% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For September, the chances of wetter- and drier-than-average conditions are similar. For September-October-November as a whole, aboveaverage precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for September-October-November will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-son-v1.pdf

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

You wonder why they bother with these seasonal models,most of the time they are miles out with their predictions.

Infact it's normally the complete opposite that happens ,look at last winters predictions and this Autumns for example.

Now apprantly the latest update is going for high pressure to the Sw of UK and low pressure to the North ,for the whole 3 months of winter.

Ridiculous,like the UK won't get any cold spells in the next 3 months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
On 10/11/2019 at 15:04, matt111 said:

Something about Saturdays and washouts over the last few weeks. 

this one looks absolute washout for north west midlands

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Rain warning updated on Thursday to remove parts of northern England and include more of the south

 

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Absolutely chucking it down this morning. The patterns of the last 6 months would have me buried in snow in mid winter. Can guarantee they will change on it is cold enough for snow, or precipitation will suddenly start dying out just a few miles from me. Rain makes a beeline for this place but snow avoids me like the plague.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Rain warning updated on Thursday to remove parts of northern England and include more of the south

 

lets hope the trend is southwards.... god knows Yorkshire has had its fill

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
11 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - will never understand why people get so hung up/flustered by these updates. (They should be taken in isolation - if it was showing the probability as the other way round I would still say the same)

100% agree with you Mr Frost and other posters, the evidence is irrefutable.

Nice sunny cold start down here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

Blimey we know its coming up to Winter in the Mod thread. The doomsayers ( Ghosts of Xmas past ) are in abundance and bemoaning every chart of every run that doesn't give them their Winter "fix".

  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Wet snow falling here brisk cold wind. I live

Remote North Yorkshire  436ft 

I've lived here over 30 years 

I can only remember snow in  2010 in November and that was the 30th.

Very early snow for early November 

Is it me or are charts now to unpredictable I remember charts such as gfs been quite reliable 12 years ago. Up to T+240hrs.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...