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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
6 hours ago, Azazel said:

One of the worst periods of weather in a long time here. Endless rain - like normally there’s often a lull of a few hours where it doesn’t rain and it’s just grey but it’s been raining heavily solidly here for around 48 hours. Estate is flooded, garden is flooded. Several car accidents . Park is a marshland.

Oh well, at least some people are no longer melting in the oppressive 18 degrees summer heat so that’s good.

Nope, but we needed it! Hardly biblical though, let’s face it - we’ll survive 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
7 hours ago, Azazel said:

One of the worst periods of weather in a long time here. Endless rain - like normally there’s often a lull of a few hours where it doesn’t rain and it’s just grey but it’s been raining heavily solidly here for around 48 hours. Estate is flooded, garden is flooded. Several car accidents . Park is a marshland.

Oh well, at least some people are no longer melting in the oppressive 18 degrees summer heat so that’s good.

What do you expect it’s autumn, we’ve been lucky the past few years escaping with little rain in autumn, for me it’s more exciting than mild dry nothingness as I enjoy watching the radar, hopefully a respite as we enter November 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 hours ago, Azazel said:

One of the worst periods of weather in a long time here. Endless rain - like normally there’s often a lull of a few hours where it doesn’t rain and it’s just grey but it’s been raining heavily solidly here for around 48 hours. Estate is flooded, garden is flooded. Several car accidents . Park is a marshland.

Oh well, at least some people are no longer melting in the oppressive 18 degrees summer heat so that’s good.

tomorrow looks a washout too, hopefully more settled signs starting to appear on EC

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Today's rain is moving slower than expected the met office were expecting it to be north of Newcastle by 9am it's currently around north Yorkshire on its northern edge

was thinking other way actually, thankfully started to clear around 10.30 here, expected it to clear around 4

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Like many others.... i watch the model thread and I think I’ve just detected the first stands of winter excitement! 

hope it's from northeners then! cos nothing to get excited about for southern members, much too early

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
3 hours ago, Freeze said:

What do you expect it’s autumn, we’ve been lucky the past few years escaping with little rain in autumn, for me it’s more exciting than mild dry nothingness as I enjoy watching the radar, hopefully a respite as we enter November 

I expect changeable conditions off the Atlantic and yes rain. This is the moans thread is it not?

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I expect changeable conditions off the Atlantic and yes rain. This is the moans thread is it not?

Yes and you certainly take advantage of the opportunity to moan. A little moan is okay but excessive moaning every post gets tedious especially when you criticise others for their preferences. Sorry but I had to make this point anyway was a soggy one here today. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
3 hours ago, Freeze said:

What do you expect it’s autumn, we’ve been lucky the past few years escaping with little rain in autumn, for me it’s more exciting than mild dry nothingness as I enjoy watching the radar, hopefully a respite as we enter November 

Yep, it's autumn, it's cold and wet, and gloomy as 'eck outside, and I'm gonna moan and whinge to my heart's content in the appropriately titled thread as the rot sets it for the next 6 months. 

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Yes and you certainly take advantage of the opportunity to moan. A little moan is okay but excessive moaning every post gets tedious especially when you criticise others for their preferences. Sorry but I had to make this point anyway was a soggy one here today. 

My garden is flooded and parts of my neighbourhood are impassable. 
 

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
57 minutes ago, Azazel said:

My garden is flooded and parts of my neighbourhood are impassable. 
 

Well if that's the case then a met office warning should and would of been issued but they didn't which indicates conditions where not bad enough to warrant one but tomorrow is a different matter but if what your saying is the case then I understand its annoying so I hope atleast for you things get drier no hard feelings. :oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

If it's a wet winter, there will be problems across parts of N England, Wales and the Midlands. 175% summer rainfall plus a deluge over the last few weeks...

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Wettest first half to autumn, I think since 2000.. that autumn continued in very wet theme throughout resulting in significant flooding by December - lets hope we can escape that this year.

Recent autumns have been very mixed on the rainfall front, we've had some notably wet ones such as 2013 and 2015, but also some very dry  ones such as 2010 and 2016. We haven't had a sustained wet autumn throughout since 2000 though. Indeed its been rare to not see at least one lengthy anticyclonic spell at some stage.. No obvious sign of that for the foreseeable, though granted some places did see quite dry weather mid September.

Its also been rare not to see some exceptionally mild conditions at some stage as well, lasting for quite a period. Some Octobers in recent years especially later on have delivered exceptional mild weather.. 

We could be on course to see a very average autumn temp wise, with very little in the way of extreme temps either cold or mild, yet a very wet one, which would make it quite a change from many recent ones.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
45 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Well if that's the case then a met office warning should and would of been issued but they didn't which indicates conditions where not bad enough to warrant one

And they'd be wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

As a weather enthusiast it’s nice to have something slightly different for a change rather than above average temps and anticyclonic conditions persisting in autumn, I love all weather types if they don’t persist for more than a month or so, we had endless dry weather throughout summer (at least here anyway) so it’s nice to see a wetter period for me

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

This Autumn reminds me more of 2012 than 2000 so far. What set 2000 apart (bar the flooding by the end of October) was just what a sting the systems from mid-October onward, severe gales.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

If it's a wet winter, there will be problems across parts of N England, Wales and the Midlands. 175% summer rainfall plus a deluge over the last few weeks...

Exactly. We’ve had more than enough rain now and the ground is thoroughly waterlogged. What we need is a drier period, otherwise we might end up with a similar situation to December 2015 - and I’m sure no sane person wants that.

This certainly isn’t typical autumn weather unless you live in the Lake District. In Leeds, for example, we don’t exceed 60mm of rain on average for any month of the year - our wettest month is actually August with 58mm - and yet we’ve reached that figure with more than half the month to go - certain people perhaps forget that most of England is actually quite dry, even in autumn..

..and besides, one of the best aspects of autumn is mellow, cool sunny days with frosty mornings, misty evenings and the sun shimmering on the colourful foliage - surely nobody thinks the current weather is preferable to that?!  

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

It's certainly more like the Autumns I remember as a kid with this wet weather. It's been commented on that it's like 2000 but I agree with Damien, it feels much more like 2012 in fairness. 

All we need is an Atlantic storm barreling in and then we can settle down to Winter. Ex Lorenzo had potential but fizzled out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

We've now had 181.8mm of rain in the last 23 days (and counting, as its currently raining). The 1981-2010 average for the entire Autumn here is 179.9mm.

It has been quite cool by day aswell, with a high maximum of 15.6C this month and only 3 days surpassing 15C. The models aren't showing anything much above 14C for the foreseeable either.

Its quite a different October to recent years. Extremely dull too, we've had only 33 hours of sunshine in 14 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
21 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

This Autumn reminds me more of 2012 than 2000 so far. What set 2000 apart (bar the flooding by the end of October) was just what a sting the systems from mid-October onward, severe gales.

Yes 2000 brought very stormy conditions from mid October onwards, something so far thankfully we have spared this autumn, but plenty of time yet. 2012 was a notably unsettled autumn, but never especially severe or very wet. There was a potent arctic blast in October around the 26th I think and it became quite cold towards the end of November. A very seasonal autumn overall. 

I mentioned 2000 because of how wet things were, and how wet its been this year at this stage.

It feels very much like an autumn of the early - mid 90s to me, so far. We had a run of notably unsettled wet autumns 1991-1994 with the atlantic ruling the roost. These autumns were also preety chilly, indeed damn right cold at times. Sept and more especially so October 1992 was notably chilly. Oct 1993 brought a cold spell with wintry showers, and Nov 93 was very cold towards latter stages with widespread snow. Conversely Nov 1994 was very mild. I'd be very happy if the autumn eventually pans out like 1993.. rather than 1994.

We have been spoilt recently with October, which has more often than not delivered very benign pleasant conditions, sometimes very mild - especially at months end. 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What is it with the control run of late spawning charts worth dwelling over

lets take a look at it

it all happens around day ten(yes i know it's day ten sigh)

deep trough in N Canada forces WAA ahead of it up the west side of Greenland(black arrow),also notice the arctic high(white circle) creating some reverse -AO(arctic oscillation)(orange arrow) forcing the trough west of Greenland south 

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.57262214b6540b413ad972a1bef750e4.pnggensnh-0-0-240.thumb.png.0649b28a93f6b67da395937344d241bf.png

lets have a look at the animated sequence of both the 500mb height's and 850.

'anim_txz6.thumb.gif.a9496cd7ac1228e68928226a49407228.gif anim_hgm8.thumb.gif.0dcb40d2ab4fa8fc02c7be1a411e2dc1.gif

will it set a trend?

 

 

A pity that's in the unreliable range :cray:wouldn't mind that coming off thankyou.. I do have that little feeling something really special will happen this winter :oldsmile:but we shall see love model watching in autumn and winter really is fascinating. Wonder if high pressure next week will last I have a feeling it will be transient in nature thus not staying dry for too long but atleast enjoy the dry weather while it may last then. :oldrolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Last nights rain totalled 21.4mm, taking us up to 93.8mm for October (351% to the 15th!) and 203.8mm for the Autumn so far.

The wettest Autumn here since 1980 was 2000, which had 296.3mm - there's certainly a possibility to beat that, considering we're only just halfway through the season.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I do wonder if we will reach a tipping point in the next month with the kind of 2000, 2012 and 2015 flooding. So far it’s been kept to a minimum.

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