Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[markyo]

https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/rainfall-shortage-could-lead-hosepipe-3355880

If not cold then this Autumn needs to be wet,followed by a wet winter. Cold or not. Mild and dry would certainly not be good by any means!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s looking increasingly cool for start of October going by the latest GFS 0z run

[Summer Sun]

Weekend 

Remaining unsettled

Next week

Cooler start
Settled to start
Becoming unsettled later

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49833944  

Edited September 26, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Sunday's rain is causing a few issues at present with just how far north it'll get

Last night it was mainly the south

Whereas this morning they're showing it getting towards southern Scotland

Edited September 26, 2019 by Summer Sun

[markyo]

On 20/09/2019 at 19:22, Mapantz said:

To be fair, you've posted a similar thing at the beginning of the past few months, and it has turned out the opposite.

Well looking very much like i was right this time..

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

Well looking very much like i was right this time..

Last time I looked, it was still September?!

[markyo]

59 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Last time I looked, it was still September?!

Take the "was" out then and substitute with "will be"...

[Summer Sun]

A yellow warning for heavy rain has been issued for parts of the west from 6pm Saturday to 5pm Sunday

 

[summer blizzard]

Yeah, most GFS runs have been giving 20-30mm in recent days.

[Summer Sun]

This weekend

More heavy rain
Gales
Mild

Next week

Cooler
Briefly drier
Further wet and windy spells

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49847261 

 

[Dangerous55019]

I have to say that last week certainly felt like September, with that last burst of warmth... This week feels like October has come early! 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Thoroughly nasty Autumn day: Cold (13.8C), dark with thick, low cloud and currently torrential rain @ 1:15pm 

[Mapantz]

95mm of rain has fallen here since Sunday. Not bad!

[Downburst]

On 25/09/2019 at 16:50, markyo said:

https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/rainfall-shortage-could-lead-hosepipe-3355880

If not cold then this Autumn needs to be wet,followed by a wet winter. Cold or not. Mild and dry would certainly not be good by any means!

Surely this is an infrastructural deficit rather than simply a rainfall deficit? 

 

[markyo]

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Surely this is an infrastructural deficit rather than simply a rainfall deficit? 

 

Suspect a 70 to 30 split,climate being the 70.

[Sunny76]

Think I went away at the right time to have a holiday in the sun. I’m clinging on to summer in Malaga, and it’s been between 26-32 degrees on most days, and 19(on a cooler night), to 21c at evenings.

Not missing the cool damp weather waiting for me back at home.

[cheeky_monkey]

cold here... currently just above freezing with a few flurries blowing around in strong NE wind

[matt111]

First day wearing a jumper today since early June as the strong wind was making it feel rather cold despite it still reached 17.6°C. 58mm here over the last few days so not as wet as some but still easily the wettest spell for some time. 

[summer blizzard]

16 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

cold here... currently just above freezing with a few flurries blowing around in strong NE wind

What was your first and last snow date this year?

[Summer Sun]

The met office have updated the severe weather warning for heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday

15:00 Mon 30 to 15:00 Tue 1

Heavy rain could cause disruption due to localised flooding later on Monday into Tuesday.

What to expect

• Flooding of a few homes and businesses is likely
• Bus and train services probably affected with journey times taking longer
• Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer

Reason for update

Warning extended northwards and eastwards to include the whole of Wales, parts of northern England and The Midlands.

An area of heavy rain is expected to move northeast large parts of England and Wales later Monday and into Tuesday. The more persistent rain will probably ease on Monday night but bands of heavy showers are likely to follow on into Tuesday. Through the period, 20-40 mm of rain could fall quite widely with perhaps as much as 70 mm over high ground in Wales and northern England. With the ground having been left wet by heavy rain in the area this weekend, some flooding is likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-09-30&id=78bb95b3-81a5-415f-a503-79e5915e9977&details

[Summer Sun]

The next area of heavy rain and strong winds is nearing Ireland and will move towards England and Wales later today reaching eastern areas by the early hours of tomorrow

 

Edited September 28, 2019 by Summer Sun

[markyo]

Fantastic Autumn weather now on the cards,proper seasonal set up for at least the first half of October. The Atlantic is active and in our favour for once.  Could this be a real Autumn at last?

Edited September 28, 2019 by markyo

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, markyo said:

Fantastic Autumn weather now on the cards,proper seasonal set up for at least the first half of October. The Atlantic is active and in our favour for once.  Could this be a real Autumn at last?

A good old fashioned autumn by the looks of it, at least as far as one can see in the models. It's how I remember autumn. 21st September to 21st December is my wettest quarter on average and this year looks like answering to that for the moment. No pseudo-summer on the horizon.

[Zak M]

It has been feeling very autumnal here over the last few days. A lot of rain and definitely feels much fresher than usual. I was also treated to a nice little thundershower yesterday

[Sir Mim]

36 minutes ago, markyo said:

Fantastic Autumn weather now on the cards,proper seasonal set up for at least the first half of October. The Atlantic is active and in our favour for once.  Could this be a real Autumn at last?

Although I agree with you, it seems if Hurricane Lorenzo does develop as some models are suggesting I would hardly describe that as being "in our favour".  Seasonably wet and windy is one thing, damaging winds of the kind being predicted are something else.