Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[summer blizzard]

I have been thinking about our Autumn prospects and right now I think we might see quite an average to cool Sep-Oct but probably a milder and wetter Nov-Jan (leaning to a cold Feb-March).

With regards to Sep-Oct there seems to be minimal activity in the Tropics to generate MJO interference or a sustained jump in GLAAM so I suspect that we are looking at relatively unsettled weather akin to August and June. October could be quite wet since some US research asserts that +values in Nino region 4 correlate with October -AO so that may push the Jet Stream South.

For Nov-Jan although we have solar minimum and a neutral or easterly QBO, a neutral ENSO pattern and +PDO is a relatively unfavourable Pacific pattern so even if we keep a weak stratospheric vortex i suspect we might alternate between zonality and mid-latitude blocking rather than anything which would deliver more than transient spells.

[Dangerous55019]

During my early morning walk this morning I couldn’t help but notice that the autumn flame has been ignited once more... As this tree is definitely starting to show off it’s autumn plumage. 

[Badgers01]

currently in the lake district and don't worry I can confirm autumn is alive and well and presently visiting keswick !!

[Dangerous55019]

This season of mists and mellow fruitfulness is well underway this morning. 

Hello autumn! 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

This season of mists and mellow fruitfulness is well underway this morning. 

Hello autumn! 

same here, stunning morning, roll on September

 

[seaside 60]

On 23/08/2019 at 11:29, Dangerous55019 said:

During my early morning walk this morning I couldn’t help but notice that the autumn flame has been ignited once more... As this tree is definitely starting to show off it’s autumn plumage. 

I am not sure its autumn, although you would be sooner into autumn where you are I think.

Driving locally over the weekend I saw many examples of trees looking like that, however and I may be wrong it looks more like drought/heat stress or virus as it seemed more like 1 or 2 types of trees with this problem.
Locally I wouldn't expect to see autumn colours yet.

Having said that my vines seems to be dying back early this year but again it looks like the leaves have a leaf virus/worms rather that autumn.

PS I love all your photos you take.  

[markyo]

The end is in sight...the welcoming arms of Autumn are almost around us. Really puts my mood up knowing Summer is behind us now,time to pack the aircon away soon! Might even be able to get out in the garden soon and enjoy it for once!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

42 minutes ago, markyo said:

The end is in sight...the welcoming arms of Autumn are almost around us. Really puts my mood up knowing Summer is behind us now,time to pack the aircon away soon! Might even be able to get out in the garden soon and enjoy it for once!

It's September on Sunday - hang in there !!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

I am not sure its autumn, although you would be sooner into autumn where you are I think.

Driving locally over the weekend I saw many examples of trees looking like that, however and I may be wrong it looks more like drought/heat stress or virus as it seemed more like 1 or 2 types of trees with this problem.
Locally I wouldn't expect to see autumn colours yet.

Having said that my vines seems to be dying back early this year but again it looks like the leaves have a leaf virus/worms rather that autumn.

PS I love all your photos you take.  

I always notice some trees starting to turn here at the end of August. Happens at the same time every year. 

By mid September, a lot more will have joined in.

[MP-R]

It looked autumnal first thing yesterday morning when it was foggy, then cleared up and it was 26C in the afternoon - so very much still summer.

A few trees are beginning to turn though, and by the weekend into next week it will certainly feel a lot more autumnal.

[Aleman]

Our fruit trees are yellowing and dropping odd leaves, though they have been doing the latter all year after the dry and hot/cold weather early on that stunted growth and allowed more disease. Their fruit yield looks terrible this year. I've seen a newish roadside "forest" that had lots of yellow leaves on trees that were only 5 or 6 years old - looked to be quite a few silver birch and they shed early anyway. At 6 years old and roadside - dividing two roads approaching a junction - they might have been "landscaped" rather than naturally seeded, so short of water to the roots and artifically heated by the roads a bit - but certainly plenty of yellowing young trees in there.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Aleman

[damianslaw]

There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at it to see how it is doing.

Signs of autumn are all around, but don't become notable until well into September. One clear sign is the heavy dew that tends to occur on clear nights as we enter September. As well as the leaves and blackberries etc, it is the light which really takes an effect. The sun is now beginning to rapidly lower on the horizon and dappled shade and shadows take over the countryside. 

Other signs are in nature, swifts and swallows leaving, followed by housemartins. Wasps swarming around everywhere also another sign.. in these days of too much distraction, we should all stop and look around at what is happening in nature, all too often we don't pay attention - nature is our best entertainment - well I think it is!

[Badgers01]

The Amaranchia and cherry trees are both turning already here in Surrey.

[Aleman]

Settling snows have started across the northern coast and islands of Canada. Time to start the winter thread?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Aleman

[Badgers01]

middle of October for the start of the winter thread is the normal convention

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Signs of cooler weather starting to envelop parts of Russia as we move into September. Some runs showing the first air frost's & a snow risk around the 12th.

Edited August 28, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[damianslaw]

Yes as I expected the horse chestnut tree I mentioned yesterday has red leaves already - a sure sign autumn is rapidly approaching..

[philglossop]

Funny I've been driving a lot around the City today, and the trees are definitely starting to turn and rather noticable at that around the tops. I stated that I thought we're ahead this year but we clearly are. Horse chestnut are very advanced but even popular and the lime trees,aren't looking brilliant for the end of August. 

[matt111]

The tree outside my bedroom window has had a few brown leaves on it for a couple of weeks now as the wet and windy weather during the middle of the month was enough to start the change. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Cooling off nicely now, could see nighttime minimas down to 6-8c on Sunday night/Monday morning. 

[Seasonal Trim]

I'm finally done for the summer. My heads turned fully into Autumn/Winter mode.

BRING ON THE COLD! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Edited August 30, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looking good for 1st 10 days of September at least!

[Seasonal Trim]

And for this Autumn, I don't want much, just a rerun of this chart would set me up until Spring.

[Summer Sun]

TWO Autumn forecast

Autumn 2019: Mild and quite wet

Quote

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a milder than average autumn. On balance there is considered to be a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.

Temperature

The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for September, October and November is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.0C above the average.

Precipitation

Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast