Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer Sun]

The rain has set in now and with no wind to shift it it's gonna be here for a while I suspect

A distinctly chilly feel today feels like autumn has arrived

[summer blizzard]

While not scientific and just a feeling, does anybody have a list of the wettest Autumns since say 1950. 

[Dangerous55019]

I have to say that it’s feeling very backendish out there tonight. 

I wonder if tomorrow is the day when I finally wake up to that proper autumnal nip in the air? 

[Frost HoIIow]

9 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I have to say that it’s feeling very backendish out there tonight. 

I wonder if tomorrow is the day when I finally wake up to that proper autumnal nip in the air? 

With winds now coming in from the W or NW the dew point is dropping giving an indication that the air being introduced is more akin to polar maritime rather than humid subtropical air from the SW. Certainly a more Autumnal feel to things. 

Edited August 11, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[Colu_Mike7]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

While not scientific and just a feeling, does anybody have a list of the wettest Autumns since say 1950. 

2000 and 2012 instantly spring to mind...

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~mike/extremes/rms2001_poster_a0.pdf

[Turnedoutniceagain]

After a brief scan of the charts, may I be so bold as to state that "Summer is over" ??

[Dangerous55019]

2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

After a brief scan of the charts, may I be so bold as to state that "Summer is over" ??

Oh I do hope so @Turnedoutniceagain! 
I'll have a nice large helping of autumn this year if I can please? With lots of morning and evening mists that slowly turn into proper fogs, with a few blustery gales thrown in as well. Plus a side order of beautiful autumn colours on the trees that can be enjoyed in either the sunny days, or the grey misty foggy ones. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Night time minima in single figures: 8c. Lovely early morning mist in the fields too.....

[Guest Durham Weather]

On 11/08/2019 at 16:28, summer blizzard said:

While not scientific and just a feeling, does anybody have a list of the wettest Autumns since say 1950. 

What about Autumn 1976? September and October were extremely wet after the hot, dry summer

[cheeky_monkey]

Trees starting to turn already here which is about 10 days early..not sure if that due to the lack of sun this summer? had lots of dull days esp in the last few weeks.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Fun and games later

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Trees starting to turn already here which is about 10 days early..not sure if that due to the lack of sun this summer? had lots of dull days esp in the last few weeks.

Maybe a bit localised etc - but sunshine was 95% in June and 100% in July - though it certainly feels like it has been rather cloudy here too. The date of the leaves changing isn't nailed on every year though, spring/summer temps, rain, sun etc all play a part. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[MP-R]

I always thought autumn colours were enhanced by more sunshine. A duller wetter summer would surely yield more of a damp squib in terms of colours.

The only hints of autumn here so far (other than the horrendous weather) is the rusty looking chestnut trees and the faintest of yellow starting to appear on beech.

[cheeky_monkey]

8 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe a bit localised etc - but sunshine was 95% in June and 100% in July - though it certainly feels like it has been rather cloudy here too. The date of the leaves changing isn't nailed on every year though, spring/summer temps, rain, sun etc all play a part. I wouldn't read too much into it.

im talking about here in Edmonton in Canada ..how the seasons change here is totally different to the UK..leaves start to change in my experience around 20-24 August maybe that's because usually summers are very sunny this one has been unusually dull and wet..i couldn't find any sunshine totals for the summer thus far for Edmonton anywhere..

[Dangerous55019]

I know I’ve said before about spotting patches on trees that are slowly gaining their autumn plumage, but I’ve just clocked this oak tree which has started to turn! 

Now I don’t know what others think, but this seems very early to me for an oak to be turning? In fact I’d go as far as to say they’re normally the last to retain their leaves! Certainly around these parts anyway! 

[Dangerous55019]

Okay... Evening everyone.

So last week I decided to have a look at what the Canadian Cansips long range model was forecasting for this coming autumn, so this evening I thought I'd take a look at what the CFS V2 is forecasting for autumn 2019.

September: This appears to be showing a small tough of low pressure more or less right over the top of us here in the UK. So I would imagine things to be carrying on pretty much as there are at the moment... Sunshine, showers, a few windy bits as well.

October: That small trough that was over us in September appears to have gotten much bigger, and drifted slightly further North as well. I would imagine that this could bring us our first proper autumn storms... I wonder if we'll get another storm like on the 27th of October 2002?

November: Well, what can I say?! If this was high summer then I'd say that a classic Spanish Plume event would be quite likely! But its November! And by the look of this chart, I'd say that the CFS V2 is forecasting an exceptionally mild November at that!! Can we get a classic, thundery Spanish Plume in November? If the CFS V2 is right, then I guess we'll find out! 

Now before people start reaching for the Prozac after reading my last paragraph, I should point out that these are very low resolution charts, and it is a long way out... Plus its the CFS V2, and yes I could very well be interpreting these charts wrongly!  But this does seem to be totally at odds with what the Canadian Cansips model is currently forecasting.
As ever, time will tell. 

[Summer Sun]

Accuweather's Autumn forecast

Quote

 

Windstorms to arrive early and pack a punch for the United Kingdom, Ireland

Parts of the British Isles had a taste of autumn in August as wet and windy weather struck the region on multiple occasions. As autumn progresses, the threat of significant windstorms will be on the rise across Ireland and United Kingdom. Impacts from the storms will occasionally spread farther south and east impacting locations from northern France to Netherlands and Denmark.

These windstorms will bring the risk of power cuts and significant travel disruption. Downpours from each storm will also elevate the risk of flash flooding. "Any one windstorm could lead to widespread impacts and damage for a small area," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. "The problem with early-season windstorms is that leaves are still fully on trees, which increases the chances for tree damage and impacts to transportation," he added.

 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041

[Dangerous55019]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Windstorms to arrive early and pack a punch for the United Kingdom, Ireland

Evening @Summer Sun 
Wow! That seems to back up what I've just posted with the charts from the CFS V2! 
So for everyone who enjoys a good ole autumn hoolie, it looks like your luck could be in this year! Lol 

Edited August 14, 2019 by Dangerous55019
Dyslexic fingers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @Summer Sun 
Wow! That seems to back up what I've just posted with the charts from the CFS V2! 
So for everyone who enjoys a good ole autumn hoolie, it looks like your look could be in this year! Lol 

SS certainly does, and won't like Jon Snow's latest post in MOD.

[Dangerous55019]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

SS certainly does, and won't like Jon Snow's latest post in MOD.

Evening @I remember Atlantic 252 
Yes, but, that post in the MOD thread is for August, so I wouldn't read too much into that for affecting this coming autumn at the moment. 

[mb018538]

58 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Accuweather's Autumn forecast

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041

Their forecasts are garbage. UK at threat of windstorms in the autumn? Wow, that’s a real eye opener. Thanks for that, we’ve never seen anything like that in the UK during the autumn before.

Let’s just have a look at a little excerpt from their summer 2019 forecast:

A sunshine-filled summer from UK to France, but drought concerns will loom

Dry weather will dominate much of the summer across Ireland, southern parts of the United Kingdom, the Low Countries and northern France.

The dry weather will provide ample opportunities for people to enjoy outdoor activities.

The main UK headline was drought concerns. I mean really....

[4wd]

1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I know I’ve said before about spotting patches on trees that are slowly gaining their autumn plumage, but I’ve just clocked this oak tree which has started to turn! 

Now I don’t know what others think, but this seems very early to me for an oak to be turning? In fact I’d go as far as to say they’re normally the last to retain their leaves! Certainly around these parts anyway! 

Not normal leaf senescence, which is often November in oaks, it looks badly affected by mildew or some other disease.

[Dangerous55019]

On 14/08/2019 at 21:24, 4wd said:

Not normal leaf senescence, which is often November in oaks, it looks badly affected by mildew or some other disease.

Evening @4wd 
Sorry for the delay in replying... Real life and what have you... I have checked, and there is no mildew on those leaves or any kind of disease... Those leave are on the turn! 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Inverness: "A wee frost in the Glens........"

[philglossop]

 

On 16/08/2019 at 19:41, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @4wd 
Sorry for the delay in replying... Real life and what have you... I have checked, and there is no mildew on those leaves or any kind of disease... Those leave are on the turn! 

Apart from the normal suspects Horse Chestnuts which have shown signs of brown for about 10 days here, we are still mostly a normal dark August Green leaves still here. That's not to say it's running ahead of schedule here, in fact I'd say we're running about 2 weeks forward compared to last year. 

After the drought, I think the trees kept leaves a tad longer in no part to the wet August 2018. With June being so wet, no issues this year, so I'd say in 4 weeks we'll have proper change on the go. Bring it on