Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer Sun]

1st look at Autumn from the weather outlook

Quote

 

Background signals

In additional to the seasonal models a number of key points are worth considering:

1. El Nino conditions are forecast to give way to ENSO-neutral in the next month or two. Once established, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the rest of the autumn and winter 
2. A near normal hurricane season is forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center
3. Current high levels of global warmth
4. Warmer than average seasons have been common in the UK during recent years

The above pointers favour above average temperatures this autumn.

Summary

A warmer than average autumn is favoured and the chance of the UK mean temperature exceeding 10C is considered high. The precipitation signal is much more varied. On balance below average rainfall totals are favoured but that could be due to the first half of the season being quite dry.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4911&title=Autumn+2019

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

1st look at Autumn from the weather outlook

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4911&title=Autumn+2019

No surprises there..,..

[Sunny76]

It wouldn’t surprise me if we have another 2009 or 10 autumn early winter period. Mild at first then cold or very cold later. Something similar to 2017-18 would be good.

[NeilN]

No more warm autumns again please! I was hoping we'd settle for something average instead of above. 

[Harry233]

I’d like to see a rather warm and sunny September but with some big thunderstorms at times. October to have some wet weather at the start but then very sunny afterwards with a brief heatwave and then the first frosts in the last week. November to begin quite cold and frosty but then become very wet and windy 

[Don]

My ideal autumn would be a cool and wet September, followed by a warm and dry October, leading to a progressively cold November, setting the scene for a cold and snowy winter!  However, I doubt this will be the case this year.......

Edited July 15, 2019 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 11/07/2019 at 08:22, mb018538 said:

To me it's still potential summer until mid-September

Summer ends on the 31st August.

Usually get trees starting to take on the first hints of autumn towards the end of August here. 

[Met.]

This thread has been started exceptionally early. Good idea would be to close it and open it in a month's time. How can anyone moan or comment on autumn when we're not even halfway through summer?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

This thread has been started exceptionally early. Good idea would be to close it and open it in a month's time. How can anyone moan or comment on autumn when we're not even halfway through summer?

The threads always start at the same time in the season preceding. The spring thread popped up mid January.

It's good to have a bit of discussion before the season actually arrives, though I concede it may 'annoy' those people who don't want to think about winter/summer ending.

Edited July 15, 2019 by CreweCold

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Don said:

My ideal autumn would be a cool and wet September, followed by a warm and dry October, leading to a progressively cold November, setting the scene for a cold and snowy winter!  However, I doubt this will be the case this year.......

i doubt this is the case ever..maybe Autumn 1978 would be close?

[Frost HoIIow]

On 13/07/2019 at 21:26, Sunny76 said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if we have another 2009 or 10 autumn early winter period. Mild at first then cold or very cold later. Something similar to 2017-18 would be good.

It would be great if we got a beast from the east in December or January. Whilst it was great we got two of them in 2018 in late Feb & mid March I feel they were a bit late. Especially the latter the sun quickly got to work on the snow the next day despite there being a very good covering. Can't beat snow at Christmas.

Edited July 15, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[Don]

50 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i doubt this is the case ever..maybe Autumn 1978 would be close?

Autumn 1995 was fairly close to this scenario, although November was fairly mild and cold weather did not arrive until the first week of December.

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Autumn 1995 was fairly close to this scenario, although November was fairly mild and cold weather did not arrive until the first week of December.

when it comes to cold snowy winters 95/96 was pretty hit and miss after Xmas..wouldn't go down as a classic cold snowy winter in my book

[Don]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

when it comes to cold snowy winters 95/96 was pretty hit and miss after Xmas..wouldn't go down as a classic cold snowy winter in my book

It was pretty much miss all the way in my back yard with a couple of cm’s tops!  Rubbish winter for me!  However, was still cold.

Edited July 15, 2019 by Don

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i doubt this is the case ever..maybe Autumn 1978 would be close?

As recently as 2017 going by his description. Although, despite the snowiness of the winter that followed, it wasn't cold per se.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

As recently as 2017 going by his description. Although, despite the snowiness of the winter that followed, it wasn't cold per se.

was 2018 snowy apart from the end of Feb? 78/79 for example was snowy from Dec through into March 

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

was 2018 snowy apart from the end of Feb? 78/79 for example was snowy from Dec through into March 

Pretty snowy. Some places had an early taste in late November. Then there were several events in December, including one just after Christmas (if only it had been a few days earlier). Snow in January was concentrated further north but there was a transient snowy spell for some around midmonth. Then of course February speaks for itself. We had a light snowfall here early in February too.

[Bristawl Si]

In last 10 years or so i've always viewed September as an extension of Summer. Even into early October it's rarely felt like Autumn in recent years.

More of the same please. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Conkers, apples, hawthorn, sloes, blackberries, elderberry - all bursting out.

Autumn's all around us already if you know where to look.

Anyone seen a barley/wheat harvest started yet?

[mb018538]

5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Conkers, apples, hawthorn, sloes, blackberries, elderberry - all bursting out.

Autumn's all around us already if you know where to look.

Anyone seen a barley/wheat harvest started yet?

Autumn is all around us already? Meanwhile today the temperature is in the mid 20's, and sunset is 9:15pm. Yep, definitely autumnal.

[Earthshine]

16 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Summer ends on the 31st August.

Usually get trees starting to take on the first hints of autumn towards the end of August here. 

Summer ends on the equinox.  31st of August is an arbitrary date chosen for statistical reasons only.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Summer ends on the equinox.  31st of August is an arbitrary date chosen for statistical reasons only.

I disagree. Spring starts on the 1st of March for me, definitely doesn't feel like winter by then as the days are longer and it can reach 20c. So therefore autumn starts September 1st. Even by late August it generally starts to feel autumnal as the evenings draw in.

[Bristawl Si]

31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I disagree. Spring starts on the 1st of March for me, definitely doesn't feel like winter by then as the days are longer and it can reach 20c. So therefore autumn starts September 1st. Even by late August it generally starts to feel autumnal as the evenings draw in.

Autumn hasn't started on September 1st for many years. September has evolved into a Summer month weatherwise.

[Dangerous55019]

Saw my first Lords ‘n’ Ladies plant of the season today... Always a good harbinger of the coming of autumn. 

[Dangerous55019]

9 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Conkers, apples, hawthorn, sloes, blackberries, elderberry - all bursting out.

Autumn's all around us already if you know where to look.

Anyone seen a barley/wheat harvest started yet?

Yay!! Another autumn regular returns ... Good afternoon @Turnedoutniceagain.

All greenages are coming along nicely here as well. But like you I’m still waiting to see anyone starting the barley/wheat harvest.