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Posted (edited)

Interest is growing in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as an unconventional system is forecasted to develop into a cyclone, the National Hurricane Center predicts an 80% chance of formation in the 5 day range. Uncertainty prevails but a tropical storm or weak hurricane is likely to be situated towards the Louisiana/Texas border by Friday/Saturday.

 image.thumb.png.5f4b1e0e9e598059692b1a21ec7fcfa6.png

Edited by reef
Topic name change

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Yes, the ECM has been quite consistent with this while ukmo and yes we're having none of it. Now they are also edging towards the ECM scenario. 

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We will be pinning each named storm this season to promote discussion and learning. If this gets a name, it's getting pinned!

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Some impressive rainfall

index.thumb.png.1cba80603d391f85d50a6f46acb3ceed.png

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Posted (edited)

Enhanced vorcity already causing flooding over New Orleans.

NHC have issued a pre-advisory, forecasting hurricane strength by late Friday.

Recon will be in at 18z today.

Cane season is a go!

Edited by summer blizzard

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Interestingly this is a rare case where the steering flow is more westerly the stronger the system is and like wise more northerly with a weaker system.

GFS12z has landfall at 986mb just west of New Orleans.

UKMO12z has landfall at 947mb near central Texas.

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The UKMO is a bit lonely this morning, tracking Barry to Texas as a stronger system. Icon, GFS and ECM show a somewhat weaker storm making landfall in Louisiana. At the moment, heavy rainfall looks like the main threat.

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I think the problem with Tropical storms/hurricanes is people hear 'oh it's only a Cat 2, it'll be fine' and the flood risk might actually be life threatening and catastrophic. I think this is certainly the case here and has potential to be very bad indeed.

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Big differences between the ICON 6z and the GFS 6z. The ICON has shifted the track slightly further west while the GFS has gone further east and north that its previous output. With the longer sea track, the ICON has a stronger storm.

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NHC will issue advisories on Tropical Depression 2.

Latest recon was supportive albeit the center is still broad and tilted.

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Landfall with the ecm

land.thumb.png.b552a68f8547247a69d87637c2418dbe.png

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He's been officially named Barry.

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And welcome, Barry!

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The 12z UKMO continues with the westerly track taking Barry to Texas. Despite the long are track it doesn't deepen the storm much.

It will be interesting to see if the ECM sticks with its earlier track.

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Latest ecm rainfall estimates

index.thumb.png.6abd8c8c4f7927b8cc1063ed0b9767c1.png

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With some levees being 16ft above normal, thanks to a swollen Mississippi, this could be catastrophic 

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It looks like Barry will not make it to hurricane status. Even the ECM which was the most enthusiastic with the strength has downgraded. I guess the close proximity to land is preventing any significant strengthening and the thunderstorm activity is south of the low pressure. o the wind not so much of an issue but certainly the rainfall.

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Some better organisation of thunderstorms closer to the centre of the low and the latest update is showing sustained winds 65mph. So the warm waters of the gulf are having an effect. Barry is trying to reach category 1 status.

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Center is now singular and well defined at the surface but completely exposed and rotating round a broader upper level center.

Not in good shape at all.

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Reed Timmer in Louisiana & already flooding an issue...

80BD7416-C6A5-4469-9161-65CB4E8EC3EE.thumb.png.fe1dee2f31932f02970aa17e74b1f9ea.png

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Barry has strengthened over night - Latest sat loops show a significant burst of convection & the shape is now a lot more symmetrical- on the last sat rep im sure theres an eye beginning to pop 

( pressure is about 991 )

A58BD481-B68C-46AB-8BEE-F1919E371F44.thumb.png.24c102de0520dab63cdb6f9d848d18f9.png

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Now a Hurricane

As of the 10am update

10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13
Location: 29.6°N 92.0°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 

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