Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Selliso]

Swansea strike?

[sendandreturn]

24 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Just my luck

I can film it from my flat which overlooks the common/navy monument

[PhilM1]

Just now, Thundershine said:

It was the website on a PC, not sure if that's the same as the app though.

If its the part where it just shows periodic symbols, then its the same thing. There is no human expertise involved. Those things are ok just to spot a general trend. You are much better off where you are here, same as me (someone with zero knowledge in forecasting) taking in the comments and local reports etc.

 

[SkyDreamer]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You’re living up to your name

I honestly think they will outrun the instability pocket as they move NE - like the uppermost cell seems to have done

Nothing wrong with being a dreamer! Although, good luck to anyone who can actually fall asleep in this heat.

[Summerstorm]

4 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

there's a huge Anvil to the West of Blackwood, only showing as light rain.. but looks like a boom stick

Might be seeing that shower over towards Abergavenny or the showers over Swansea way.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Summerstorm

[StormChaseUK]

Hmm

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

These two burgeoning cells appear to be bee-lining straight for the SE, against all the odds.

Not really - a number of different models have shown developments across France heading towards the SE area - BUT all models have agreed that they will stay discrete and small in scale before petering our eventually. 

If that is indeed the nose of the high instability I’d expect initiation across the SW in the next hour or so, if not sooner. I note there is activity developing over Wales but not electrified last time I looked (yet).

[Guest]

It is definitely looking more promising for the SE given the latest radar and those storms leaving France. No doubt they'll stick around over the channel. East of Bognor Regis looks a good place to be for this early stuff.

For us in the moderate risk zones further west, looks like we will have to watch and wait for now. We are primed and ready we just need a few electrified cells to spark into life (he says shaking his head disappointingly at the Welsh cells) 

[weirpig]

Yep south Wales lift off 

[Bolt from the Blue]

Chasing now off the cards for me as I’ve got work at 7am , so hoping for a direct hit at home. got the go pro outside ready in it’s waterproof case, lol

[Stabilo19]

Storms in the east are now bursting into life, not quite the modelled popcorn thunderstorms anymore..

You really cant make this stuff up 

[Met4Cast]

PANIC!!

[Supacell]

1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

is my strong thought of the storms heading south east delusional or more of a possibility now, i have high hopes, just asking for more info from you

Storms are moving NNE, almost in the direction of the 1 on a clock. The cells over Cherbourg are heading towards Sussex by the looks of it. Kent does look too far east tonight, and all forecasts I have seen keep the SE dry, but things can change. You would ideally want to see developments east of Le Havre. 

[ancientsolar]

Just now, Summerstorm said:

Might be seeing that shower over towards Abergavenny. 

that's the one towards Abergavenny, (to my North 
The one to my West is far closer, 

[Cloud 10]

6 minutes ago, Nice Ice Babe said:

Retro lighting alert.....just to get you in the mood....This was taken on my phone from my bedroom window a few years ago,  no special effects     no filters  just a plain love of storms. It was a day when three big storms hit us. for tonight

From probably the same night...

 

[Guest]

Can see the distant flashes of the storms over by Cherbourg - that lightning is about 100km away.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Possible activity in swansea

[Lynxus]

Picking up strikes on my strike-alert now.  NICE 

[Southern Storm]

Yes I can definitely see lightning coming from one of the storms leaving France.

Come on!

[Guest]

I think the cells heading for Caen have Kent's name on them, should they survive.

[Stabilo19]

3 minutes ago, Harry said:

Not really - a number of different models have shown developments across France heading towards the SE area - BUT all models have agreed that they will stay discrete and small in scale before petering our eventually. 

If that is indeed the nose of the high instability I’d expect initiation across the SW in the next hour or so, if not sooner. I note there is activity developing over Wales but not electrified last time I looked (yet).

While they seem to be staying small, they are highly electrified and will move through with a bang!

[Lu.]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Can see the distant flashes of the storms over by Cherbourg - that lightning is about 100km away.

Oooo I was about to say you sure that’s not the lighthouse but I’ve just seen a flash

[tomdewey]

Y

[LightningLover]

I haven't spotted any distant lightning yet... May just be a matter of time!

[kold weather]

The discrete cells to the east are going to likely be very intense indeed. The stuff further west maybe not quite but it's going to likely form into a decent strength MCS over the next few hours.