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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

2 cells heading toward North East Wales.

Hope so! Nothing is showing on my radar except the rain not far from Aberystwyth 

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Staying put tonight @Supacell? My mums near Gloucester so I'm down here, the lure of the severe box.. The fact u haven't moved is bad omens for me! 

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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

explanation please...
image.thumb.png.ed8e6c660c865a5211245da815594b2b.png

Yes, I'd like an explanation into what are you referring to in that edited image?......lol

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Spotting with rain here near Derby.The storms are definitely moving NE.The cell over Nottingham seems to be gaining strength as it moves on at a fair pace.

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if its now heading straight to the south east, i only cut out an area, didnt edit anything on the radar ;-;

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1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

explanation please...
image.thumb.png.ed8e6c660c865a5211245da815594b2b.png

Your angles are a little off, looking at lightening maps the movement is more NNE, you are showing ENE!

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Looks like cells springing up off the coast near Ilfracombe also.  Is this the start of things kicking off?

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Quite a few potent cells popping up East of the other cells coming out of Northern France.

Seems like they are going to survive the Channel Crossing!

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4 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Whilst the charts would support that - I’m inclined to think those small cells have a chance of becoming beasts as they had north. Not only that, the more  isolated convection away from the main band may well pose the more severe threat with large hail etc, so not yet worth writing those off 

Look at what’s happening to those cells now!

 

 

0BC6C32E-DB23-40F1-999F-A3A3C6FDC495.png

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4 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Whilst the charts would support that - I’m inclined to think those small cells have a chance of becoming beasts as they had north. Not only that, the more  isolated convection away from the main band may well pose the more severe threat with large hail etc, so not yet worth writing those off 

Or they will drink the energy from the air around them and you’ll get little thunderless showers. That did actually happen a couple of weeks ago - ideally you’d want those cells closer to the south coast... could happen but the chances are slim

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south East looks first in the firing line....

2DB512B5-15A8-41F0-8D9F-7A22AFBC292C.jpeg

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Over 1000 strikes from the Kent clipper so far 😂

 

Nothing electrified further west yet.

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Got cloud beginning to build, signs of instability here and feels muggy again

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Positive signs for people further east to enjoy some action tonight going by the progress of the Northern France cells... As is always the case with these storm setups - forecast trajectory’s and severe threat locations can change, and tonight poses a real chance of that 

Edited by Matty88

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6 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

explanation please...
image.thumb.png.ed8e6c660c865a5211245da815594b2b.png

I would ignore this Metcheck tracker, use lightning maps and rainfall radar to judge the direction of movement

Edited by lancem

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Remember not all strikes show on map for elevated storms.  Until it's completely dark expect to see flashes anywhere 

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Near Christchurch Dorset atm still in the pub. Thinking I should stick around here for a while before  moving. Then do I go West to Purbeck area or East to Ports, Chichester etc....? 

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Just now, lancem said:

I would ignore thjs Metcheck tracker, use lightning maps and rainfall radar to judge the direction of movement

Okay just metcheck has done amazing for me in the past

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i am sitting in my back garden in Warminster looking for lightning 

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These two burgeoning cells appear to be bee-lining straight for the SE, against all the odds.

capture_001_23072019_215515.jpg

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The MetOffice have removed the lightning symbols from the weather forecast for my area just in the last hour. Why is that?

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1 minute ago, Joey.G said:

Staying put tonight @Supacell? My mums near Gloucester so I'm down here, the lure of the severe box.. The fact u haven't moved is bad omens for me! 

I am staying put, or at least local. Not a bad omen, it is just that I think Belper/Derby may do ok tonight and I have no idea which way to go if I did chase. I have flashbacks to 4th July 2015 whereby I went out chasing  despite things looking good for Derbyshire. I saw the storm but only caught the tail end where Derby got hammered. I could have saved petrol and got a better show. Tonight looks similar.

Gloucester is definitely a good bet though, well into the best risks on all forecasts👍

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Or they will drink the energy from the air around them and you’ll get little thunderless showers. That did actually happen a couple of weeks ago - ideally you’d want those cells closer to the south coast... could happen but the chances are slim

But remember 28-29th May...? It all panned out out fairly similar to this, and the storms had an even longer crossing to make then! Additionally, we have much better ingredients in place tonight...

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