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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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South East Wales, -- sky towards Cardiff.. and sky towards the South Wales valleys in the East, (in order) .. light compensation doesn't show the true darkness of the Southern sky
IMG_4607.thumb.JPG.75f9fa39acda912cd2eed41b1e763d57.JPGIMG_4608.thumb.JPG.52ae5906bdc17c2ce178ef690f381a41.JPG

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5 minutes ago, SkyDreamer said:

There is potential for cells to pop-up over the SE and the London Area.

On radar, you can see showers starting to pop-up in the Channel moving in a N-NE direction. Moving towards the areas Brighton and Portsmouth and the in-between areas too.

So ruling out storms developing in the SE just because the skies look cloudless now, is a bit... stupid. These events are always hard to predict and I have no doubt that many in risk areas will be disappointed by the lack of storms.

There seems to be plenty of energy in the atmosphere though for elevated storms to pop-up anywhere really in Southern half of the UK this evening. I'll be happy if I see one flash of Lightning in the distance... Fingers Crossed! 😎

Yes - predicting because you can or can’t see clouds is rather foolish - but also you’ve got to consider the parameters in play and from the looks of it the instability just isn’t there for anything organised in eastern areas. The usual caveat of ‘I Don’t control the weather and it could happen’ obviously applies, but people seem to be confusing ‘wishing / hoping / misconstruing data’ with reading what people with experience are saying - and to me they generally seem to be saying ‘it really is very unlikely to happen in the east’

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11 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

No prizes for guessing where this is

 

CropperCapture[3].jpg

Now that’s your classic storm approach.

UKV was suggesting storms blowing up as soon as moisture arrived in the Midlands, looks good. Best place is probably eastern Manchester though I suspect, upsloping and already developed when it arrives.

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1 minute ago, Mesoscale said:

It gives me anxiety, hope and depression all at the same time lol, its exciting but when its a bust I feel so down afterwards. 

Im exactly the same,i get so down its unreal when nothing happens

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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Anybody fishing down there? On the right hand side ledges and the opposite side, under Clavell tower?

Will have a look when I get there lol

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I’m seeing what looks like some weak instability to my west which is interesting as I thought I was way too far East for anything tonight...

Still not expecting anything but I’ll keep an eye out

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A passing shower here from mid-level cloud, but can see clearer skies to the southwest

FA9FFEED-8461-4364-BE48-CFECC43C1E74.png

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yes - predicting because you can or can’t see clouds is rather foolish - but also you’ve got to consider the parameters in play and from the looks of it the instability just isn’t there for anything organised in eastern areas. The usual caveat of ‘I Don’t control the weather and it could happen’ obviously applies, but people seem to be confusing ‘wishing / hoping / misconstruing data’ with reading what people with experience are saying - and to me they generally seem to be saying ‘it really is very unlikely to happen in the east’

That’s true, but nothing about thunderstorm forecasts is clear cut, and if anything, previous experiences tell us things are more than likely to shift east. I hope not as it might limit tomorrow’s temps! 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SkyDreamer said:

There is potential for cells to pop-up over the SE and the London Area.

On radar, you can see showers starting to pop-up in the Channel moving in a N-NE direction. Moving towards the areas Brighton and Portsmouth and the in-between areas too.

So ruling out storms developing in the SE just because the skies look cloudless now, is a bit... stupid. These events are always hard to predict and I have no doubt that many in risk areas will be disappointed by the lack of storms.

There seems to be plenty of energy in the atmosphere though for elevated storms to pop-up anywhere really in Southern half of the UK this evening. I'll be happy if I see one flash of Lightning in the distance... Fingers Crossed! 😎

I don’t think anyone is ruling out storms in the SE...just that the sky at the moment looks incredibly stable. I can see now some S-N running cirro-stratus looking clouds appearing to my west (and a rather large dragonfly zig-zagging about grabbing a late evening meal).

Ive never gone to sleep and had storms without even some signs of instability appearing now...I’ll happily be proven wrong however!

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The precipitation over brum and the black country  isn't producing much  the odd spot of rain  but aside from that the cloud formations are wonderful 

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What I have noticed in the last half hour or so is the clouds are now starting to go up, towers are forming nicely 

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yes - predicting because you can or can’t see clouds is rather foolish - but also you’ve got to consider the parameters in play and from the looks of it the instability just isn’t there for anything organised in eastern areas. The usual caveat of ‘I Don’t control the weather and it could happen’ obviously applies, but people seem to be confusing ‘wishing / hoping / misconstruing data’ with reading what people with experience are saying - and to me they generally seem to be saying ‘it really is very unlikely to happen in the east’

That's fair enough. 😁

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are we expecting much precipitation or closer setups to a dry storm ?

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Looking west out over Weston Bay, looking nicely unstable. X

20190723_205116.jpg

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Using Adele’s wonderful album 21 as a template I’ve made my prediction for storm intensity here:

 

01E3AF20-FFAB-455B-9159-8A89C42BEC53.jpeg

🤨

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Using Adele’s wonderful album 21 as a template I’ve made my prediction for storm intensity here:

 

01E3AF20-FFAB-455B-9159-8A89C42BEC53.jpeg

Beautiful... lol 😂

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A few spots of rain here and the local forecast has removed the storms again.

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Just pulled up. Sky to the right of me, yet to the left it’s totally clear. Very warm

BB0DA07E-2CCE-43D2-AEDD-EF0832B9A910.jpeg

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26 minutes ago, lancem said:

Hello guys. New member here, although I've been posting on UKWW for years under a similar username so you may recognise me from there. 

Goes without saying I'm hoping Southampton area or somewhere I can drive in less than an hour is in the firing zone later! Good luck everyone

Ello ello!! Just up the road in Winchester. It's borderline for us!

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Hope storms develope well inland and not a case of waiting for imports to cross the channel.

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Just now, The PIT said:

A few spots of rain here and the local forecast has removed the storms again.

Yes we've wet the ground here, too. Gonna go out and smell the petrichor 👃

It's only gonna be more oppressive now 🌧️

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Posted (edited)

I very much get the idea that once the cap is breached it will be like dropping a table tennis ball into a tank of set mouse traps?

No matter where you are if the energy is there then 'Kaboom' .....over half to 3/4 of an hour?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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well on the metcheck thunderstorm development radar it seems that the storm is infact heading north east earlier than expected 🙂
image.thumb.png.a907228eddb762b0526f6ca90fa5ba7e.png

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