Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Got a feeling I may need to head slightly West, thinking of finding a SW facing vantage point somewhere in the Peak District and waiting for whatever shows up. Good look everyone 

I am unsure what to do with this one. The advantage is roads will be clear at night, but the storms are going to be moving fast. Place yourself wrong and you'll never catch them back up. The overall idea is for storms to be strongest further west, with somewhere to the west of the Peak District looking very well placed. But then, Belper and Chesterfield are not that far behind in probability.

Storms will grow in spatial size quickly as they spread north so shouldn't be too hit and miss by the time they get here. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Alderc said:

No chance......

I could head to broadstairs beach and watch it cross the channel, there is a tiny trance of the storm being close enough to see, very small chance that is ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just thought I'd drop by and wish you all a happy hunt, looks like it's going to be an epic show ?.

Happy hunting/chasing.

Be safe in that rain and high winds, remember the trees are fully leafed.

I look forward to your photos and videos.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything points to early storms in the west reaching the pivot point near Gloucester and then fanning out from there to become more widespread over the central northern and northeastern extents by morning.

Kind Of like a convective version of Pink Floyd’s DSOTM album cover:

B3CB3AD7-CB49-4590-9340-8ADB5A1B31A9.jpeg

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll just be basking in this lush heat upstairs, sleeping like a baby. Too many busts for the east this year and this doesn't have our name on it (quelle surprise). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am unsure what to do with this one. The advantage is roads will be clear at night, but the storms are going to be moving fast. Place yourself wrong and you'll never catch them back up. The overall idea is for storms to be strongest further west, with somewhere to the west of the Peak District looking very well placed. But then, Belper and Chesterfield are not that far behind in probability.

Storms will grow in spatial size quickly as they spread north so shouldn't be too hit and miss by the time they get here. 

I'm not fussed for a direct hit, though it would be nice for Sheffield to have that! Even if we miss 20 miles to the west say, the views of the storms flashing their way up from the south will be phenomenal. Thank goodness for the Peaks to get those viewpoints! ? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

UKMO Precip Map for midnight

image.thumb.png.a86c1f8a1a3c17a7c9bd6f5b6940db46.png

It's exactly the same as the UKV. It shows nothing for Dorset or Hampshire and that's why I am ignoring it.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mapantz said:

It's exactly the same as the UKV. It shows nothing for Dorset or Hampshire and that's why I am ignoring it.

But Ventusky has been showing something similar for days now - albeit with more widespread activity north of Bristol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hoping Mother Nature throws us a surprise because I’m about to head out into the Hampshire countryside. Good luck everyone!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some pretty rapid developments here atm don’t expect much until after dark though 

BF38B716-4841-4C83-8869-E4DE04B41EB5.jpeg

51A81B37-E799-410C-A35C-8A797AEE284C.jpeg

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 19:00 radar picture

1746855694_Screenshot2019-07-23at19_06_00.thumb.png.401c7d76f32227025979c11a88355bd4.png

The only model that even comes close is funnily enough the GFS, all other models do not have that area of rain.

AROME.thumb.jpg.584d7150e4a6bbd83d2dd5847167efaa.jpgGFS.thumb.jpg.ebcea027b8472be0618db9e99bbac810.jpgHIRLAM.thumb.jpg.bbc821c3109cbf4729a7c9559c72f042.jpgICON.thumb.jpg.db920f4272035888df2fa72476af1eb7.jpgUKV.thumb.png.d99081dd480f49107fbd1da3819e103b.png

It's probably expecting too much of the models to pick up a precise area of rain at the precise exact time I'll admit, but this does show that relying on models at this point is pretty pointless. None of them will have this right.

We can deconstruct it after the event to see which model came closest to overall track etc, but for the time being it's time to turn off the models and switch on the radars!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still showing thunder for us on BBC And Netweather forecast but I thought we are too far east for anything?

Would anyone like to have a stab if I am likely to see anything here? 

Thank you for your help 

Screenshot_20190723-191007_BBC Weather.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Time wasting is becoming increasingly difficult right now so I’m making a move to Bournemouth. Not looking at anything other then radars. 

The humidity is unreal for me at the moment. ? 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

towers seem to be going up in my East, -- towards Newport-Cwmbran
  DSC_7112.thumb.JPG.d2ebe2f48400e9e4766449e05377c267.JPG
  DSC_7113.thumb.JPG.660835c8001dc56f2129dd07eff6fa82.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Time wasting is becoming increasingly difficult right now so I’m making a move to Bournemouth. Not looking at anything other then radars. 

The humidity is unreal for me at the moment. ? 

Thought you were already there ? 

Nowcasting is definately the answer - everyone is saying opposite things to each other now ?

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently 29C and the most stable looking sky here. Am dissolving hope of any SE action this evening as has been tempted by a few models.

Good luck everyone!! Hope you have an amazing night!!

As an aside, app back to 39C for Thursday ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Time wasting is becoming increasingly difficult right now so I’m making a move to Bournemouth. Not looking at anything other then radars. 

The humidity is unreal for me at the moment. ? 

It’s juicy over here! Worst case beer on the cliff top! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Thought you were already there ? 

Nowcasting is definately the answer - everyone is saying opposite things to each other now ?

Something came up and only just got my stuff together to leave. Plus traffic, we all know how bad it can be down there ?

 

still perfect blue sky’s here tho 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Still showing thunder for us on BBC And Netweather forecast but I thought we are too far east for anything?

Would anyone like to have a stab if I am likely to see anything here? 

Thank you for your help 

Screenshot_20190723-191007_BBC Weather.jpg

I would actually say you are likely to at least see some distant lightning this evening and overnight, given your location. Keep an eye on it! ? I hope this helps.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overcast, has started to rain here in Dudley... hour ago it was roasting, wall to wall sunshine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mid-level cloud reaching here now.

29C and it'll soon start feeling increasingly sultry as the humidity starts to creep up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...