Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Chris.R]

11 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Radio 5 live mentioned storms later, N Midlands got a mention for later on too.

Met doesn’t want to know. Various automated apps I have do though. 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Chris.R

[StormChaseUK]

Yes lot of mid level torrents around this morning. It is already destabilizing  

[staplehurst]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

Wow that wasnt forecast was it 

Lack of agreement in the models (and still is!) to feel confident enough to include a SLGT last night...

Quote

A second, narrow corridor of (weaker) elevated CAPE will be advected northwards from Biscay towards the Irish Sea on Saturday morning, as a subtle impulse migrates north in the strong southerly flow aloft. This may provide the focus for a few scattered elevated showers and/or thunderstorms on Saturday morning, primarily Celtic Sea / Irish Sea and perhaps clipping eastern Ireland - however, confidence in lightning activity is low given limited NWP support and so have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now.

 

[StormChaseUK]

Beautiful Accas 

[Snowyowl9]

Lines of mid level cumulus and alt-cas and virga nice sight.

[Another Kent clipper]

I'm thinking today that convective north-south divide might get HS2ed

[Stuart]

day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 30 Jun 2019

ISSUED 07:16 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:16 UTC Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern Ireland (outline in text forecast below) and are likely to continue northeastwards across parts of Scotland. SLGT has been expanded to cover this risk. Confidence on developments later today over northern England / E Scotland is still not high enough to upgrade to MDT, but will monitor trends through the day

 

Upper ridge over western Europe will gradually pivot and shrink southwards on Saturday, allowing an upper trough west of Ireland to relax away to the northeast. An elevated mixed layer (EML) will be located along a north-south corridor over western Britain, slowly shifting northeastwards with time. This zone will be the focus for very steep mid-level lapse rates and 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg CAPE (from elevated parcels) - a rather impressive environment for the British Isles.

 

A second, narrow corridor of (weaker) elevated CAPE will be advected northwards from Biscay towards the Irish Sea on Saturday morning, as a subtle impulse migrates north in the strong southerly flow aloft. This may provide the focus for a few scattered elevated showers and/or thunderstorms on Saturday morning, primarily Celtic Sea / Irish Sea and perhaps clipping eastern Ireland - however, confidence in lightning activity is low given limited NWP support and so have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now.

 

Stronger forcing will arrive on Saturday evening, as the upper trough advances and overlaps more favourably with the existing instability axis, by this stage over eastern Scotland / northern England. An increase in elevated convection is likely, though it could be well into the evening hours before significant thunderstorm activity occurs. Nonetheless, the risk increases as the evening progresses and the instability axis shifts eastwards, which would place the far east of Scotland (more specifically offshore) and NE England / E Borders at greatest risk.

 

Forecast profiles suggest any convection will be largely elevated, though the environment would be conducive to perhaps elevated supercells. Regardless, the magnitude of CAPE/shear and steep lapse rates suggests severe thunderstorms capable of producing very frequent lightning and hail 3-4cm in diameter will be possible. Should the plume destabilise earlier (as per some model guidance) then the risk would extend farther west to Cumbria / central southern Scotland etc, but current thinking is a slower destabilisation would favour later initialisation over North Sea coastal counties, before activity ultimately moves offshore and continues to grow upscale. Have refrained from introducing a MDT for now due to low confidence on timing of initialisation. Isolated elevated showers will be possible across parts of the Midlands / Wales / SW England, though probably limited in depth to produce much in the way of lightning.

 

Scattered showers, some weakly-electrified, are also likely in the post-frontal environment across western Ireland (and later western Scotland) as the main upper trough axis swings through, the cool mid-levels helping to yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Limited cloud depth precludes the introduction of a SLGT for now.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-29&fbclid=IwAR0n1BfmJZE_Ixriw_13gdH_oMnrZepjtlaUpZD6INSm4PiVJREdHwxnMIo

Edited June 29, 2019 by Stuart

[Mr Frost]

Bring on the lightning!!!! This should be a fun few hours! (Hopefully! )

Currently 19c here - hope it’s about to go bang!! ⛈

My last thunderstorm was on 16th June.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Mr Frost

[P-M]

A nice very warm morning here sun is really strong although the sky is a milky haze. Enough interest today to keep me checking in on the storm forecasts but not hopeful based on previous experience. Enjoy the heat / sun all and have a great weekend!

[GeordieX9v]

15 minutes ago, P-M said:

A nice very warm morning here sun is really strong although the sky is a milky haze. Enough interest today to keep me checking in on the storm forecasts but not hopeful based on previous experience. Enjoy the heat / sun all and have a great weekend!

I fancy our chances this evening.

[P-M]

3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

I fancy our chances this evening.

Well I kinda do but after the recent busts I'm being reserved. 

Gorgeous morning up here in the NE with a lovely warm breeze every now and again. I'll check in later on the forecasts but fingers crossed for the cap to be eroded later

[Zak M]

6 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lightning's just took the cam out

Saw that too.

[GeordieX9v]

5 minutes ago, P-M said:

Well I kinda do but after the recent busts I'm being reserved. 

Gorgeous morning up here in the NE with a lovely warm breeze every now and again. I'll check in later on the forecasts but fingers crossed for the cap to be eroded later

Yeah it's very humid, I'm struggling already.

Plenty energy to tap into later if we can...

[Zak M]

Some impressive thunderstorms over Ireland and Northern Ireland this morning.

[Weather-history]

Altocumulus castellanus with virga passing by

[StormChaseUK]

lovely skies over Brecon. Heading south 

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Lines of mid level cumulus and alt-cas and virga nice 

[StormChaseUK]

Huge spots of rain falling from mid level cloud now.

[Had Worse]

Sorry, that's my fault,  I got the bbq charcoal out of the shed, tempting fate.

Edit, looking at the radar, areas of rain breaking out W and SW of Manchester 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Had Worse

[StormChaseUK]

Most of the rain is not reaching the ground. Just higher level stuff.

What impressed me the most is how high the temps are so early.

[howham]

Bubbly clouds here and feeling much warmer and humid than earlier in the week.  Maybe later...

[P-M]

Meto going for thundery showers later and the latest BBC graphics on their forecast showed heavy rain / thunderstorms breaking out first in the west and north west including southern Scotland then transferring east across NE England and eastern Scotland after 6pm but looked more towards midnight. 

Only one way to find out and that's to see what actually unfolds. Wouldn't mind a bit nighttime lightning. 

[Richard Taylor]

Temp 23/16 Dew in Aberdeen. We had same clouds earlier as howham had, now clouding over more and the sun has gone for now. The local airport actually had the chance of a storm 0900-1200. Seems a bit early but we will see. Certainly humid and a lot warmer than recent days. Amazing what a change on the wind direction can do up here.  

[P-M]

Just now, Richard Taylor said:

Temp 23/16 Dew in Aberdeen. We had same clouds earlier as howham had, now clouding over more and the sun has gone for now. The local airport actually had the chance of a storm 0900-1200. Seems a bit early but we will see. Certainly humid and a lot warmer than recent days. Amazing what a change on the wind direction can do up here.  

Same here was sunny /  hazy before but clouded over. Now starting to burn back and the sun poking through here and there so ties in with forecast so far. 

[ancientsolar]

really, an interesting day to come? 
The skies are very clear despite the rain in places, hoping that it helps to get a big storm somewhere! 

[ancientsolar]

looks like a cracker of a storm East of Dublin, despite far heavier rain to the North of Dublin