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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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30 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 Reasonably happy with jet stream modelling today and reasonable agreement across the models that there is some thunderstorm potential today. Predicting the destabilization of the CAP time wise is a bit tricky as the vorticity patterns across France and Spain are complex  (EUMetsat Real time images). It looks to me like destabilization across France might not happen quite the way it is modeled due to fairly dry air at lower levels (More towards the Brestimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9e).  Divergence of air aloft as a jet streak approaches the south west of the UK into the evening will most likely break the CAP.
 Timing wise then I think it is going to be later into the evening which will tend to rule out surface based storms although the night time surface inversion is pretty thin in places.Estofex highlight severe wind gusts, large hail and locally excessive precipitation as the prime concerns, but I think we should add lightning to that list. I think west will probably be best due to more moisture being sucked in from more maritime air.

hgt300.png

nmmuk3hrprecip24.png

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nmmuk3hrprecip24.png

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Thanks as ever @BrickFielder!

The dynamic tropopause charts in your post make interesting reading. 

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I fell asleep, the heat is intense !! 

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So guys what are my chances in Bridlington tonight? I'm going to stay up all night even though I have work at 6am 😂😂

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The sky was clear here until about 15 minutes ago but now it looks like this. 7186AB95-D2D1-48AF-9E69-77C7BA34150B.thumb.jpeg.362572ea1d8169e822821c953e79cee4.jpeg

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Walking home from work just now has nearly killed me off. It’s so hot and humid it’s unbearable!! Here in Wrexham it’s 32c currently. Sky mainly clear with a few wisps around. Hope we get a big storm tonight!!! 

6738CA97-3E5E-408E-849F-00B90EC3C0A6.jpeg

3C424AC3-9343-4D07-8312-A5924AC46199.jpeg

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current state of play here in north Wilts

 

1) looking west, patchy Alto Cumulus

20190723_163802.thumb.jpg.7ea92f76da02c84f992abf0bbcc006e0.jpg

 

2) Looking south, patchy Ac Cas (note sign of towering)

20190723_163817.thumb.jpg.de6ef58725bc8d3a22a39355d44d8416.jpg

 

3) Looking south east, thickening Ac Cas with definite signs of towering

20190723_163855.thumb.jpg.e94547678b5f041e1fc0b3053111761f.jpg

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Looking East from Creech, Purbecks

DSC_0006.JPG

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Precip heading my way. Not thundery but might turn it shortly!

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44 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’ll wave from the clifftop 😂

I’ll be on the cliff top too 😂 

however if Portsmouth could get hit I’ll be driving back. 

Sky is nothing but blue here.

Temp I’m very high 

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Accas clouds moving through leicester right now!!

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A cloud towering up above the low clouds 

IMG_20190723_164718.jpg

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Posted (edited)

A few charts from the 9z AROME ensemble.   First the ensemble me mean, showing action across a range of south western and Southern England, 

anim_vea9.gif

What's interesting is that the 90% chart (meaning 90% point on the probability distribution ) brings this right through the centre of the UK (this is a probabilistic model)

image.thumb.jpg.b9597faa0bfa32357014d29b8557b1e1.jpg

On to CAPE, and here's the mean

anim_aar0.gif

But here's the 90% 

anim_hna1.gif

My take (and I'm NOT a storms expert),is that if this is going to go big, it will go up the middle of the south, the A34....we will see.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Seems like we have lift off in the channel to the NW of Guernsey

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The Arome is already way out, even on the latest run,

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

A few charts from the 9z AROME ensemble.   First the ensemble me mean, showing action across a range of south western and Southern England, 

anim_vea9.gif

What's interesting is that the 90% chart (meaning 90% point on the probability distribution ) brings this right through the centre of the UK (this is a probabilistic model)

image.thumb.jpg.b9597faa0bfa32357014d29b8557b1e1.jpg

On to CAPE, and here's the mean

anim_aar0.gif

But here's the 90% 

anim_hna1.gif

My take (and I'm NOT a storms expert),is that if this is going to go big, it will go up the middl of the south, the A34....we will see.

I am way okay with that!

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The Arome is already way out, even on the latest run,

To be clear, my post was about the AROME ensembles, not the det run.

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1 minute ago, tomdewey said:

IMG_20190723_165659.jpg

Good sign, generally this type of elevated summer storm doesn't get going until the late evening, early hours.

There is something about 11pm - 4am time period that forces the eletricial actviity to increase. 

If I had to hazard a guess I would say

9pm, 10pm Swansea/Cardiff

12am-2am Hereford

4am Shrewsbury.

My guess for tonight.

 

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Posted (edited)

Dark skies to the south now. Will be the edge of that precip making its way towards Bristol.

20190723_170827.jpg

Edited by Karl83

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Local forecast now has storms for nine o'clock. Well that's looking unlikely at the moment maybe later on.

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10 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Dark skies to the south now. Will be the edge of that precip making its way towards Bristol.

20190723_170827.jpg

Someone works at the Rolls Royce plant at Patchway.  😁👍

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Okay then here we go we finally have some interesting skies going, plenty of friends about (AcCas) and can just about see some cumulus starting to show. This has all developed very quickly.

 

 

 

 

67353778_352779015644788_2076019021441925120_n.jpg

67410068_2834009896674031_3837128446580883456_n.jpg

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Cape looks good for Dorset area and IOW fingers crossed!

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2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Someone works at the Rolls Royce plant at Patchway.  😁👍

Indeed AWD. I'm sure it wasn't the flag that gave it away, though. 😆

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