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Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Looks like flying ants are swarming again in central southern England 😅

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1 minute ago, Onding said:

Looks like flying ants are swarming again in central southern England 😅

Indeed they are, seem to have taken to wing today.

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11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Here we go, pokey little cell fired over the coast of the brest penninsular, sfercis almost immediately

That has developed very quickly, my guess is that is the sweet spot for increasing instability development.

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30 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Well I'm a bit confused now.  Do I need to ignore the Netweather automated weather forecast?  It has removed or reduced  the thunderstorm risk for my area although other weather forecasts have suggested I am in the severe risk - has the risk area changed at all?  

we might possibly be on eastern most fringe of instability but don't quote me on that if so it would be safe to assume that further west one travels the more activity you would get

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20190723_153708-01.thumb.jpeg.581b75d1ac0d96797314045c70c23343.jpeg

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Sferics appear to have died off on the Brest cell. I'm glad really - I want this to be delayed until sunset at least.

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Thinking of heading down to Hants, Dorset, Wilts pos further west after work, as hear that’s in firing line most? Suggestions anyone?  

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Sferics appear to have died off on the Brest cell. I'm glad really - I want this to be delayed until sunset at least.

They were surface based and not elevated! 

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I'm worried about lasting long enough to see the storms forecast for us here in W.Yorks as I have the dregs of my wedding booze to finish off ( with wifey's blessing)............

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4 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Thinking of heading down to Hants, Dorset, Wilts pos further west after work, as hear that’s in firing line most? Suggestions anyone?  

Im heading to Bournemouth. Sweet viewing to the west of the main pier. That’s my limit for tonight. 

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I reckon there might be a few surprises tonight, and East of the IOW might see some action. 

Anyone else agree? 

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 Reasonably happy with jet stream modelling today and reasonable agreement across the models that there is some thunderstorm potential today. Predicting the destabilization of the CAP time wise is a bit tricky as the vorticity patterns across France and Spain are complex  (EUMetsat Real time images). It looks to me like destabilization across France might not happen quite the way it is modeled due to fairly dry air at lower levels (More towards the Brest).  Divergence of air aloft as a jet streak approaches the south west of the UK into the evening will most likely break the CAP.
 Timing wise then I think it is going to be later into the evening which will tend to rule out surface based storms although the night time surface inversion is pretty thin in places.Estofex highlight severe wind gusts, large hail and locally excessive precipitation as the prime concerns, but I think we should add lightning to that list. I think west will probably be best due to more moisture being sucked in from more maritime air.

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3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

I reckon there might be a few surprises tonight, and East of the IOW might see some action. 

Anyone else agree? 

BBC weather have forcast storms 11 onwards tonight so i hope 

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14 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Im heading to Bournemouth. Sweet viewing to the west of the main pier. That’s my limit for tonight. 

I’ll wave from the clifftop 😂

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08BE09D4-B0DA-4CA5-AF31-A177A8EA4C99.thumb.jpeg.fdb43e4d96d5ac5a8d7e60f6847d1a97.jpeg

Looking SE!

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17 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

I reckon there might be a few surprises tonight, and East of the IOW might see some action. 

Anyone else agree? 

More hope than real expectation.

What we might get over the Sussexes is a nasty cell or two that has 'broken away' from the main areas.

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1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

More hope than real expectation.

What we might get over the Sussexes is a nasty cell or two that has 'broken away' from the main areas.

For sure. 

But something is better than nothing! 

 

17-18th July 2014 comes to mind! What a night that was! Totally unexpected too! 

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Some nice instability showing around Poole now! Its slowly happening! 

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37 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm worried about lasting long enough to see the storms forecast for us here in W.Yorks as I have the dregs of my wedding booze to finish off ( with wifey's blessing)............

Congrats... I think?! 🤔

😄

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Posted (edited)

I’m praying that storms form further east of the warning zone because despite their being lots of Kent clippers so far this summer, here in London there has barely been any thunder, zero lightning as well so I would like to see something big to make up for it.

only storms I saw was when I was on holiday in Greece a few weeks ago but still they weren’t intense enough where I was in terms of lightning!

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

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15 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

For sure. 

But something is better than nothing! 

 

17-18th July 2014 comes to mind! What a night that was! Totally unexpected too! 

Would love a repeat of that - the direction seems very different though, and the breakdown that night was almost textbook whereas tonight will probably provide a few surprises...

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