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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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40 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Think I’ll drive to Bournemouth & make that my limit. ?‍♀️ 

BA91CBE5-9B6E-45AC-8068-EB4A067A6F02.png

So will I, oh I’m already here ? The clifftop view is awesome for watching cells fire anywhere upto 30-40miles out in the channel! Will be there with my late evening storm chasing essentials - can of monster and a bag of heatwave Doritos! ?

Edited by Alderc
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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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31 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Two areas of interest; 

S Wales NEwards into the Midlands, highest risk of lightning/MCS in this area with locally severe storms possible too.

Second area for me is SE Scotland area, main risk will be torrential rain/possible flooding here but locally severe storms could develop too

Convective Outlook4.png

Big upgrade for me there in the severe box!

If that was to happen/radar agreed I will head out - got a great open view to my South and also North as they pass overhead so should make for some good pictures/videos! 

South view

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North view 

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Seriously buzzing for this - even if by miracle I get absolutely nothing I hope it delivers for everyone in here and look forward to the pictures/videos! 

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So will I, oh I’m already here ? The clifftop view is awesome for watching cells fire anywhere upto 30-40miles out in the channel! Will be there with my late evening storm chasing essentials - can of monster and a bag of heatwave Doritos! ?

Now you're talking.......personally I'd mud wrestle my own grandmother for a good storm and uber large bag of heatwave doritos....lol

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So will I, oh I’m already here ? The clifftop view is awesome for watching cells fire anywhere upto 30-40miles out in the channel! Will be there with my late evening storm chasing essentials - can of monster and a bag of heatwave Doritos! ?

Cliff top is great! I’m torn to go by the pier tho, boscombe as that also has great views. Will then go from there. Think I’ll be on the monster tonight too ?

very hot and humid here at the moment!

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When your phone beeps to tell you that your thunderstorm warning which i didn't know i had has been removed. Phooey

 

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Even at this range  models are still at disagreement  latest Icon 6z  really does not get the eastern extent past the central Midlands   really is a case of radar watching

image.thumb.png.984579bdf4161a33809ca67d1e80b073.png

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8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

How’s the UKV looking this morning?

Pretty poor for the South, excellent further North. However, I ignore charts now. It's simply a waiting game until something crops up on the radar and go from there.

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Warnings are now out from the Meto.

: 09:39 (UTC+1) on Tue 23 Jul 2019

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect parts of south-west and southern England this evening, moving north quickly across the UK overnight, clearing Scotland and eastern England by mid-morning on Wednesday. Although some places will miss the thunderstorms altogether, where they do occur there is the potential for frequent lightning, hail and gusty winds, as well as sudden downpours in a few places.

Screenshot_20190723-100101.thumb.jpg.3d3ec6a7b5bf2e47cf0a2de1ded393a8.jpg

Edited by Polar Maritime
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25 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Latest Aperge brings West Sussex and Western East Sussex right into the mix tonight.

On its own in terms of the Eastern extent at this stage.

Yup. 

But always expect the unexpected. 

July 2014 a prime example! 

 

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Two "waves" of storms on the UKV. The first a less expansive area 

Wave1.thumb.png.0c7e68227cd01bab0422e94ebce2c3e6.png

And the second has a little more oomf before exploding across N England

Wave2.thumb.png.5fe984801c22b47c036b187ab8d81088.png1118348446_Wave3.thumb.png.76502a9f190f48f8df8bc81927e7c3e7.png

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19 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Better late than never I suppose.. 

Yes I'm surprised it took that long, I'm guessing that from the warning matrix they are only just starting to become confident on where exactly the storms will form...

The Meto forecast does look interesting though
image.thumb.png.597ac8bdd90b57eec8c54970a0796803.pngimage.thumb.png.85cf4beebaa50f3d4fe9c9f10b37ae0f.png image.thumb.png.c5869570a8c8d08df850994e57be9901.png

An element of nowcasting with this one. Rainfall may also hide where elevated storms may occur. Could be one of those situations where there is lightning but none of the rain from the storm clouds reach the ground.

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15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Even at this range  models are still at disagreement  latest Icon 6z  really does not get the eastern extent past the central Midlands   really is a case of radar watching

image.thumb.png.984579bdf4161a33809ca67d1e80b073.png

well a few forecasts or various posts that I've seen seemed to suggest that might be the case but like you said really is a case of radar watching and see what happens

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Looks as though there is a small chance of some popcorn elevated storms across the SE tonight too. Wouldn’t justify a warning so am not too concerned about the lack of warning from MetO for the SE.

Consensus does seem to be west is best certainly!!!

edit - OMG! The weather app has updated and is projecting 39C for London on Thursday! 9540F5DE-EC31-4A4F-95BD-F3A902E65C99.thumb.png.8a84bc2472c9c8cbd1d516517e312a89.png

Edited by Harry
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20 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Even at this range  models are still at disagreement  latest Icon 6z  really does not get the eastern extent past the central Midlands   really is a case of radar watching

image.thumb.png.984579bdf4161a33809ca67d1e80b073.png

Looks identical to the 00z!!looks like western areas will face the brunt of these storms for a change lol!

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27 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I'm surprised it took that long, I'm guessing that from the warning matrix they are only just starting to become confident on where exactly the storms will form...

The Meto forecast does look interesting though
image.thumb.png.597ac8bdd90b57eec8c54970a0796803.pngimage.thumb.png.85cf4beebaa50f3d4fe9c9f10b37ae0f.png image.thumb.png.c5869570a8c8d08df850994e57be9901.png

An element of nowcasting with this one. Rainfall may also hide where elevated storms may occur. Could be one of those situations where there is lightning but none of the rain from the storm clouds reach the ground.

As much as the met have their issues, I'm going to go with their forecast tonight. I don't think the brunt of these storms will travel as East as we would like. The air is just too hot and dry. I think (like the met are showing) these storms will hug the West as they travel north where there will be enough moisture to maintain them. As the night progresses and the air temperature drops, these storms will travel further East, however they will be well clear of the Midlands by then.

That's not to say that some other areas won't see some action, however it will most likely be some precip, maybe a few flashes of lightening in the early hours of the morning (mostly elevated). Nothing too intense compared to what the West could see. 

 

Edited by Superstormuk
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22 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks identical to the 00z!!looks like western areas will face the brunt of these storms for a change lol!

Trouble is these storms look like kicking off towards midnight and beyond and im up for work at 5 am.. ?

I'm sure my area looks in a sweet spot, not sure if i read somewhere the pennines can act as a catalyst for storms too.

Edited by northwestsnow
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The faster storms are set to travel, the more the models seem to struggle to pin down their development.

Tonight's look to really scoot along with the upper low. Could be intense rainfall and frequent lightning, sure, but only for a very short time (hence the Met Office don't even mention flash flooding). That this could still produce some severe impacts goes to show the amount of energy available for release. 

With lowering resolution comes more smoothing-out of the resulting predicted rainfall totals, hence a larger expanse of precipitation visible in the GFS/FV3 charts compared to the high-res models.

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