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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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9 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

I dont really understand, I live in Wendover in Buckinghamshire, we are not in the firing line on any radar forecasts yet BBC are going for thunder for us from 10pm until 5am?

Can this be correct? 

Screenshot_20190723-082033_BBC Weather.jpg

I take those charts with pinch of salt , even now forecasts vary Matt Hugo has them moving up more western areas , convective weather has more of a widespread area estofex limits it level 2 as far north as the west country with a more widespread level 1 most forecasts have hail and wind gusts as most potential hazard not so much the flooding as storm motion is anticipated to be quite fast and also some evaporation of the rain occurring , even the time of initiation varies depending on forecasts so take your pick

Edited by Gordon Webb
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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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Latest Aperge looks good with what could be a MCS moving north affecting a huge area. Re above (as with many areas)  Wendover should see at least some storms tonight even if it’s flashes in the distance 

9AF3C7A0-3EE2-40BA-91A9-DE8C4CB62C8A.png

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

WRF - GFS showing rapid developments in the rain late tonight

precip_d02_20.thumb.png.1c283054a1ddb9d3c40de9234d8b7924.pngprecip_d02_23.thumb.png.d292b7ea27f658b3b1cf91642a8c86f3.pngprecip_d02_25.thumb.png.9db31d4ed16fccd550fd661973e17a2b.png

precip_d02_27.thumb.png.489999cf606e38eb73b4afd0df15a603.pngprecip_d02_29.thumb.png.ca8c03ac095da4e12a6fb6d35cf17fd5.pngprecip_d02_31.thumb.png.db08f2c99bfbfa87d35f09e9923956ab.png

So weird how that shows literally no precip for the S/SW. I'm guessing dry storms down here which suits me fine.

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Interesting blob of deep layer shear around Bristol, transferring up towards Wales & the Midlands as it moves north. Think that's where we'll see the real nasty stuff.

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Two areas of interest; 

S Wales NEwards into the Midlands, highest risk of lightning/MCS in this area with locally severe storms possible too.

Second area for me is SE Scotland area, main risk will be torrential rain/possible flooding here but locally severe storms could develop too

Convective Outlook4.png

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my new webcam should come today so i'll set up a live stream, probably viewing SE Wales,.. so it should be this type of view.. obviously the camera could be rubbish .. 
it'll be a Logitech C920.. i'll record 30FPS 720HD 
IMG_4603.thumb.JPG.d31c561faa7e5983b43efdb09bc7104b.JPG

Edited by ancientsolar
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15 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Think I’ll drive to Bournemouth & make that my limit. ?‍♀️ 

BA91CBE5-9B6E-45AC-8068-EB4A067A6F02.png

I was contemplating how far to travel as I don’t have work tomorrow so this has given me an idea, alternatively I could sit on Hayling beach and look west wistfully lol 

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Just now, ancientsolar said:

my new webcam should come today so i'll set up a live stream, probably viewing SE.. so it should be this type of view.. obviously the camera could be rubbish .. 
it'll be a Logitech C920.. i'll record 30FPS 720HD 
IMG_4603.thumb.JPG.d31c561faa7e5983b43efdb09bc7104b.JPG

Yes!! I am always very grateful when people host these! Please give us a link when available! Cheers. ?

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think I’m gonna head for Andoversford tonight. Get there as early as possible and find a vantage point with emergency shelter nearby (bridge or something ?)

Andoversford as in along the A40?.....if so a good spot....I would recommend as well Birdlip on the A417 north of Cirencester, it's on top of an escarpment offering panoramic views to the West and North (to Wales and almost as far north as Birmingham) ....I've watched many a storm there, the views are fantastic and it's roughly only 10 miles or so from Andoversford

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Just now, LightningLover said:

Yes!! I am always very grateful when people host these! Please give us a link when available! Cheers. ?

Will do, if it's possible to record live from my Iphone i'll do that too. So far iv'e only used it for Facebook, 

I do have another webcam I can stream from.. but it is totally terrible 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyPJu8gcSB3Gr5e-emDomjw?view_as=subscriber

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Interesting to see that us in west Sussex are still in with a slight chance of something later....even if it is just flashes from the storms 30 miles away! 

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2 minutes ago, A.J said:

Andoversford as in along the A40?.....if so a good spot....I would recommend as well Birdlip on the A417 north of Cirencester, it's on top of an escarpment offering panoramic views to the West and North (to Wales and almost as far north as Birmingham) ....I've watched many a storm there, the views are fantastic and it's roughly only 10 miles or so from Andoversford

Yes AJ the views are stunning there. Good shout.

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To my luck storms are forecast a few miles around me which is typical. Though just going to wait till radar watching tonight in hope there's slight east adjustment for more of a direct hit 

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3 minutes ago, A.J said:

Andoversford as in along the A40?.....if so a good spot....I would recommend as well Birdlip on the A417 north of Cirencester, it's on top of an escarpment offering panoramic views to the West and North (to Wales and almost as far north as Birmingham) ....I've watched many a storm there, the views are fantastic and it's roughly only 10 miles or so from Andoversford

Cheers for the tip i’ll check it out.

I’m quite particular and try and look for the spots that all the local stoners don’t know about - otherwise I can only hear hiphop and lolz when trying to listen out for the thunder ??

Bit worried that that whole area might be too close to the rain bands, but I guess it’s a case of get there early and scope a good spot out... exciting! ?

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I'll be heading to Walbarrow bay area but the top hill car park that overlooks tynham village. Best vantage point in whole of Dorset! Remember one year being up there and a fair few others had the same idea only for us all to suddenly realise there was a huge flag pole right next to us! We all kida realised at the same time and ran off the hill as fast as we could when the storm split in two off Weymouth and headed straight for us! Best night ever lol 

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11 minutes ago, A.J said:

Andoversford as in along the A40?.....if so a good spot....I would recommend as well Birdlip on the A417 north of Cirencester, it's on top of an escarpment offering panoramic views to the West and North (to Wales and almost as far north as Birmingham) ....I've watched many a storm there, the views are fantastic and it's roughly only 10 miles or so from Andoversford

Yes, Birdlip is one of the best viewpoints might pop up there myself. Or Haresfield Beacon but not as accessible if chasing.

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16 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Interesting to see that us in west Sussex are still in with a slight chance of something later....even if it is just flashes from the storms 30 miles away! 

Latest Aperge brings West Sussex and Western East Sussex right into the mix tonight.

On its own in terms of the Eastern extent at this stage.

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SOUTH WEST ENGLAND WEATHER FORECAST

Tuesday 23 Jul - Saturday 27 Jul

Headline:

Plenty of hot sunshine but risk of thunder later.

Today:

Early low cloud and fog will soon clear to give plenty of sunshine. It will become hot inland and in the north. However, there will be the risk of thunderstorms by the late afternoon. Maximum temperature 32 °C.

Tonight:

Thunderstorms will become more widespread, with the risk of hail, gust winds and some heavy rain bursts. Becoming drier later, but low cloud will roll in from the west. Minimum temperature 15 °C.

Wednesday:

After some early low cloud, warm hazy sunshine will develop for most. The wind will be light and it will be a little fresher than Tuesday. Maximum temperature 27 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday will see hot sunshine. There will be thunderstorms overnight, then it will turn much fresher on Friday. Sunny spells and showers will then continue on Friday and Saturday.

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