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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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I’m like a child on Christmas Eve already, even though I’m generally out of the risk zone. But July 17-18 2014 springs to mind. No storms forecast, but ended up getting savaged by one. 

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13 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

18z EURO4 is a little lacklustre on precip rates to say the least, could be due to the elevated nature of the storms of course.. 

image.thumb.png.d36b1a9472ddca835a0501bd1cae6fc6.png

image.thumb.png.cd312698f8c9e9213fe960dcf012d61d.png

image.thumb.png.5a753a6d676f83319e8bcf6aaf0475cb.png

I'm guessing it might be due to the fact it doesn't handle elevated convection well. You can just about make out the action zone it signposts on that last chart- which is Welsh Marches/West Midlands up into N England, with some activity E of that.

Edited by CreweCold
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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm guessing it might be due to the fact it doesn't handle elevated convection well. You can just about make out the action zone it signposts on that last chart- which is Welsh Marches/West Midlands up into N England, with some activity E of that.

I thought as much, clearer view of the 3AM chart 

image.thumb.png.fba39785fee0ac22c7c1a028efd0a94a.png

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10 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

really bizarre, latest Met Office text forecast for south-west england, risk of storms by late afternoon, becoming more widespread tonight, and yet... no warnings !! - not even a yellow

Possibly because they're not expecting issues with rainfall and most of the lightning will be elevated cloud to cloud. Poses less risk.

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Deep red-sky this morning here, not sure if the 'Red Sky in the Morning' lore holds much scientific principle but it does look spectacular. I'm guessing it's residual smoke particles being moved northwards with this plume as a result of the wildfires in Portugal this weekend just gone.

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This is how our local weather centre see’s it...plus latest Metoffice text forecast.

E5EB83B9-3951-4FC8-856E-35D2B867475D.thumb.png.33f313ce192261e348fd9c64a16c8de7.png

I was hoping for more severe wording ? (Something like Bournemouth below)

A37B9C6B-8988-4196-8B32-B5E8A0A19C05.thumb.png.54d1735a914dc253f55696735e4cd6f6.png

It will be interesting to see the warnings they put out later. 

Anyways all subject to change as the day goes on - exciting night ahead for many of us. (Looks like I could be up well into the early hours - depending on the radar!)

Edited by Mr Frost
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1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

This is how our local weather centre see’s it...plus latest Metoffice text forecast.

E5EB83B9-3951-4FC8-856E-35D2B867475D.thumb.png.33f313ce192261e348fd9c64a16c8de7.png

I was hoping for more severe wording. ? It will be interesting to see the warnings they put out later.

Anyways all subject to change as the day goes on - exciting night ahead for many of us. (Looks like I could be up well into the early hours - depending on the radar!)

It'll be radar watching from pretty much here on in. Looking for the first signs of life down towards the SW around 6pm.

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Not really sure what to think, as most forecasts still show storms breaking out Midlands, Wales and expanding North through much of N England and Scotland whereas others have the focus of severity to the SW and a spine up C England. Looks like the typical set up where everything might initiate just N of Gloucester again haha. Interesting radar watching to come.

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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly because they're not expecting issues with rainfall and most of the lightning will be elevated cloud to cloud. Poses less risk.

Yes, but reading the full text of the forecast: "Thunderstorms will become more widespread, with the risk of hail, gust winds and some heavy rain bursts. Becoming drier later, but low cloud will roll in from the west."

i think they will put up warnings this morning

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3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Airport's latest TAF

Temporary
from 23 at 20 UTC to 24 at 03 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the South with gusts up to 30kt

Visibility: 4000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, hail

Bournemouth Airport is reading:

Temperature 15°C

Humidity 100%

Pressure 1019 hPa

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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Airport's latest TAF

Temporary
from 23 at 20 UTC to 24 at 03 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the South with gusts up to 30kt

Visibility: 4000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, hail

Liverpool airport the same

-------------------------------

Leeds airport

Temporary
from 23 at 22 UTC to 24 at 04 UTC

Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 30 kt

Visibility: 4000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm

----------------------------------

Birmingham Airport

Temporary
from 23 at 19 UTC to 24 at 01 UTC

Wind 15 kt from the South/Southeast with gusts up to 25 kt

Visibility: 3000 m

heavy rain showers, hail, thunderstorm, rain

-------------------------------

Cardiff Airport

Temporary
from 23 at 17 UTC to 23 at 23 UTC

Wind 15 kt from the South/Southeast with gusts up to 25 kt

Visibility: 3000 m

heavy rain showers, hail, thunderstorm, rai

-----------------------------

 

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Met Office weather warnings get issued around 11am. As this event is not until the evening and overnight it is not necessary to release a warning ahead of this time just to have to change it later. I expect warnings will be issued before midday. 

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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

Met Office weather warnings get issued around 11am. As this event is not until the evening and overnight it is not necessary to release a warning ahead of this time just to have to change it later. I expect warnings will be issued before midday. 

Which warning will command more notice, the Met Office or the announcement of the next PM. Apologies for being O/T. 

It is an interesting time, especially waking up in July to thick fog (which has now been burnt away) and trying to see where these storms might track, seems to be still open to variance, but will firm up over the next few hours I hope. Still waiting for a good plume here in the central south coast.

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