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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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29 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I used to film thunderstorms but I got fed up of lightning striking in every direction but the direction I was pointing my camera, so now I just watch and enjoy!

Same.......watch it and take it in! You never know when the next one will come along....

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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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I am loving this!

Seems quite a long time since the UK and Ireland had such a widespread risk all at the same time?

 
Edited by Mr Frost
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Wow okay I wasn't expecting such an upgrade from Convective Weather! I'm in the Moderate and on the outskirts of the severe. If this pays off direct hit or not this should hopefully be a sign for good elevated displays

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That's moved me from the edge of the green area on there to being inside the SVR area and not far off the yellow area. Wasn't expecting that much of a change on their forecast. 

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Just now, matt111 said:

That's moved me from the edge of the green area on there to being inside the SVR area and not far off the yellow area. Wasn't expecting that much of a change on their forecast. 

My areas also just about in the moderate and near the severe, was expecting to be in the green at the very most. 

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Hopefully the storms and cloud stay away from the east - Thursday is looking a bit shaky. Some of us want the record breaking temps to come to fruition. ?

Edited by Stabilo19
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23 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this!

Seems quite a long time since the UK and Ireland had such a widespread risk all at the same time?

 

Slap bang in the middle of the severe risk area......that'll do nicely....Carlsberg don't storm risk maps, but if they did.........

edit....and in the Estofex level 2 zone

Edited by A.J
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To be honest from what I can see from the latest Icon,Arpege,Arome and Hirlam runs I think that moderate should be extended further west into parts of Wales and the North West although maybe I'm wrong and spouting rubbish but the latest Higher Res run i can find the Icon 18z keeps it further west.

iconeu_uk1-1-30-0.thumb.png.d901055004096d7bd0030d04b9fd01a1.png

 

Although the ECM has a much wider spread event so maybe that's why they are putting out moderates out further east. 

 

 

 

Edited by Summerstorm
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27 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Wow. I’ve never been under a SVR zone from Convective Weather... This is a first...

Same!

i thought we were too Far East for anything!

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3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

They should have warnings out for storms and heat!

Maybe they aren't confident enough to pin an area down yet but getting warnings out early is important.

Edited by Summerstorm
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For me there are two distinct area of storms which could grow into an MCS system and I've highlighted them in green. The first one moves into SW England during the early evening and gradually works its way north-eastwards (broadly the MDT zone convective weather have) becoming increasingly elevated as it moves NE, could be some spectacular lightning south of about the centre of this area, lightning perhaps less frequent in the northern half. 

The second area of interest is N Wales and NW England as a second batch of potentially severe storms develops later on in the night, 11pm onwards which could again upscale into an MCS system bringing frequent lightning etc.

Areas outside of these of the above mentioned zones (anywhere in brown) are also at a good risk of seeing torrential rain, thunderstorms possibly locally severe especially across the SW but perhaps not in the highest risk zone of severe thunderstorms at this stage.

Usual caveats apply etc.. 

Screenshot 2019-07-22 at 22.46.50.png

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1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Maybe they aren't confident enough to pin an area down yet but getting warnings out early is important.

Given the extremity of the potential situation, i'd give a blanket warning for both to be cautious and frequently keep up to date with developments.

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3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Given the extremity of the potential situation, i'd give a blanket warning for both to be cautious and frequently keep up to date with developments.

Oh yeah i agree for sure they ramped the possibility up in their video forecasts and social media but that's not enough and people could be at risk. Also @Met4Cast I'd say that forecast is a solid shout with some scattered showers elsewhere as you mention. Certainly ties in with what i've seen from the Met Office although maybe we'll be able to resolve it in more detail tomorrow. It may also become a nowcast situation as either of the systems could correct further east or west.

Edited by Summerstorm
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21 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

MO have nothing warning wise for Tuesday yet.

No doubt they'll be introducing warnings tomorrow morning particularity for the West then perhaps last minute ones elsewhere if needed

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I rang up Estofex to ask them if they could move the severe zone further east to accommodate Reigate, They didn't answer the 'phone.

Hope those in the zone have a good session! Keep us all posted please.

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3 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I rang up Estofex to ask them if they could move the severe zone further east to accommodate Reigate, They didn't answer the 'phone.

Hope those in the zone have a good session! Keep us all posted please.

Thursday night is looking just as good if not better in my opinion for the SE!

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