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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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1 minute ago, Harry said:

I wouldn’t second guess the models at the moment. A few weeks ago you will recall there was an MCS modelled to run up S/C areas. Almost all models (if I remember correctly) even as little as 24 hours out had a similar idea, within 50-100 miles of each other. The (12z AROME) on the day itself said “don’t think so guv” and shifted it East into a Kent/Sussex event and was even at that short range on its own...it also turned out to be correct.

The BIG difference this time is that the swathe of instability is much broader than a few weeks ago so many more areas in with a shout - including poor me here in the southeast ? who up until now has not been expecting much if anything tomorrow. 

Lets all get just a little excited and hope it’s a widespread event ?

Could i have that in a less educated term haha, sorry im not that understand of what you said, but what did you mean by mentioning the southeast, will we get some of this storm?

 

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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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4 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Could i have that in a less educated term haha, sorry im not that understand of what you said, but what did you mean by mentioning the southeast, will we get some of this storm?

 

He means that the models are always very uncertain regarding thunderstorms and can chop and change right until the last minute.

The SE still looks unlikely to see anything on Tuesday night but as always with UK storms, never say never, anything can happen..

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10 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Could i have that in a less educated term haha, sorry im not that understand of what you said, but what did you mean by mentioning the southeast, will we get some of this storm?

 

As @ChezWeather says, chances are low for the SE tomorrow compared to more central and western parts. But the latest Euro4 model (currently out on its own) thinks the SE might be in with a shot ?

We’ll have a better idea tomorrow when all models have updated

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Keep those eastward shifts coming (up to a point) please.

PJB on UKWW seems to suggest we’re all still in the game - and the write up he provides debunks Ventusky’s idea of it reaching well into Scotland - instead the thinking is that the strong storm activity to the south and west will consume a lot of the energy as the night wears on...

F5B87DE0-28EF-4E59-AEF4-EC5501761213.thumb.png.c866c993e458d4b1ad2cc0f56b381fb9.png

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49 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Maybe...just maybe our turn has come, but as Mapantz commented on the fax chart the north bound front seems to get it's act together just off the south coast rather than being a fully developed ""Oh hell yeah" type front as it crosses us!

BUT, all to play for..

No different to July 3rd 2015, that storm literally formed 5miles off the coast and was the greatest in 20yrs plus.

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No different to July 3rd 2015, that storm literally formed 5miles off the coast and was the greatest in 20yrs plus.

What a night that was even for me 35 miles inland and over to the east of it.

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23 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

PJB on UKWW seems to suggest we’re all still in the game - and the write up he provides debunks Ventusky’s idea of it reaching well into Scotland - instead the thinking is that the strong storm activity to the south and west will consume a lot of the energy as the night wears on...

F5B87DE0-28EF-4E59-AEF4-EC5501761213.thumb.png.c866c993e458d4b1ad2cc0f56b381fb9.png

Looking at the Met Office forecast they are suggesting showers around 7 or 8 in the evening that may occur further east before the main plume pushes up and triggers a larger band of Showers/Storms across the SW moving up through the Welsh border and West Midlands and into the NW. They are also suggesting some scattered showers early morning i.e 6-7am across EA and the SE so not surprising he has issued a risk further east as the potential is there for the odd shower or storm to initiate over there hence why he has covered these areas but with a less likely risk. However still looking likely that the main risk of the worst impacts falls into the purple and pink boxes from what i can interpret unless a massive shift happens. Good luck though hope some of you others get some as well, but i haven't had a proper storm for so long as they keep missing by 10-20 miles and it annoys me when some of you complain about missing them when some of you have been treated to some amazing storms over the last few years.

Edited by Summerstorm
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21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

PJB on UKWW seems to suggest we’re all still in the game - and the write up he provides debunks Ventusky’s idea of it reaching well into Scotland - instead the thinking is that the strong storm activity to the south and west will consume a lot of the energy as the night wears on...

F5B87DE0-28EF-4E59-AEF4-EC5501761213.thumb.png.c866c993e458d4b1ad2cc0f56b381fb9.png

It could be that lightning activity dies off somewhat as the destabilisation event pushes towards Scotland, but I'd suggest rainfall may be more prolific further N. HIRLAM is quite spectacular and broadly fits the risk map

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image.thumb.png.2c09f3658e42cbc4245526e1eacdab02.png

image.thumb.png.df3c628544a288b9f90f21fddf27334c.png

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Looking likely that some will see some great flashy bangy weather tomorrow. Hopefully I'll see something here in Gloucester! Fingers crossed

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Two areas of storms

1.thumb.png.e0af9134f11a9bb17ceafd5202ef7ab5.png2.thumb.png.4f7052736105f904b57b03b891efa2a7.png

Initially this area develops and moves into the Midlands and then later on a second batch of (probably more severe storms) develops across N Wales and slowly works northwards into NW England/SE Scotland. An absolute mess of a forecast..

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18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

UKV has shifted the storm risk slightly west on the 15z run

STORM1.thumb.png.86a5be47a02eefd2b604c257387a9de8.pngSTORM2.thumb.png.fed9f1bd3de785de244156675395bf91.png

Will be interesting to see whether the UKV subsequently trends E with the main batch of storms as per other modelling.

UKV also out on timing compared to others- obviously this doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong.

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

The next 24 hours model watching should be interesting if some are favouring the West and others trending slightly East, sounds like a messy picture indeed for tomorrow night 

Indeed. Hoping it’s a halfway house. I don’t even want to be underneath it I want to be like 5-10 miles out so I have a good view. 

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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

The next 24 hours model watching should be interesting if some are favouring the West and others trending slightly East, sounds like a messy picture indeed for tomorrow night 

I also think that lightning will be prolific, regardless of where the heaviest bursts of precipitation are shown. I would have thought the chances of 'dry storms' would be higher than usual tomorrow night. I think the Metoffice video I watched earlier stated that lightning could be the biggest concern.

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'm getting the smell of May 27th 2017

1497213331_Annotation2019-07-22202435.thumb.jpg.d017406d14e570f013ce8709af38eb71.jpg

We had hail the size of 2p coins that day, the roofs of a local Sainsbury’s and Boots caved in. 

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