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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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Live in Hedge End and the only storm activity we’ve seen here is some lightning far out in the channel. We are going on our summer holiday tomorrow and are travelling from Plymouth to Santander with Brittany ferries - i wonder if we will see anything as we travel through the channel on Tuesday evening! 

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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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31 minutes ago, offerman said:

Good morning EES

Really appreciate you're reply and many thanks for taking the time and effort for me. ??

 

It looks like many could see storms and I hope we all do.  

 

Thanks again , my eyes are fixed for Tuesday Wednesday here . I might even drive a little too to find them . 

As from Wednesday, I’ll be free to chase. It’ll be the first time this year! 

I’m glad we’re finally seeing what could be a very decent plume event. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 23 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 24 Jul 2019

ISSUED 21:02 UTC Sun 21 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

This is an extended outlook, and as such it is likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. However, provided guidance continues to remain relatively consistent, upgrades to higher threat levels are likely in future outlooks.

An upper ridge will cover much of western and central Europe on Tuesday, its axis over Germany / Switzerland placing the British Isles in a south-southwesterly flow on its western flank. This will encourage gradual advection of a high Theta-W airmass northwards, with surface dewpoints of 17-20C expected on Tuesday afternoon across England and Wales. An elevated mixed layer (EML) will over-run this very warm, moist low-level airmass, generally preventing any surface-based thunderstorms from developing.

Meanwhile, a shortwave rounding the largescale upper trough over the Atlantic to the west of Ireland will swing northeastwards, the associated falling heights and cooling aloft resulting in increasing instability over northern France and the western English Channel where 1,000 - 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Convective initiation is expected during the evening hours over N France / W English Channel / SW England as a few scattered elevated thunderstorms (perhaps surface-based over France initially) develop and drift to the N or NNE, but ultimately should become more widespread with each hour through Tuesday evening and night. Initial focus will be over SW England / W English Channel, before spreading northwards and eastwards across Wales, eastern Irish Sea, parts of the Midlands, northern England and eventually into southern (and perhaps central) Scotland late in the night. There could be an eastward extension to the thunderstorm complex across parts of East Anglia too.

The environment will be conducive for thunderstorms to become locally severe, capable of producing large hail - particularly during their early, more discrete stages before likely growing upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they continue to drift farther north, with profiles becoming increasingly saturated and instability ultimately slowly weakening.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-23

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45 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

do anyone think ill get anything down here, maybe a little thunder?

Later in the week, perhaps ... tomo would be a chase for you I think. Depending on cloud clearance you might see some anvils lighting up on the far horizon but as for immediate overhead discharges... probably no...

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57 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Was wondering whether or not I should buy a sim for my old iPhone and use that for radar and net, keeping the other free for video etc ? 

Do you not photograph the storms?

or video only?

Thanks for the 2nd phone idea ?. I use a Nikon for photos and phone for video. But shooting out a car is getting  ridiculously stupid ?

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6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Lol

Wednesday looks dry for much of the UK.

It's so i can chase late into tomorrow evening and then sleep all day wednesday;)

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I'm getting the vibe from viewing charts these storms may well kick off well before nightfall. I'm hoping they haven't moved too far North before darkness sets in.

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Am I the only one who, on this particular occasion, would not mind missing out on the t-storms...? I say this for 2 distinct reasons:

1: I wish to see how high the temperatures can get, and for the heating to be unmitigated, it would require less cloud clover and minimal ground moisture

2: We’ve had a fairly good convective season, all in all, here in Bexhill-On-Sea; I believe the patient people further north and west should see some action!

Just me, though ? 

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An interesting week coming up, both for the risk of temperature records getting broken and thunderstorms. The UK max temperature record for July is 36.7c, set on the 1st July 2015. In my opinion, the July temperature record has a good chance of falling on Thursday. I do not personally think the UK all time record of 38.5c will fall though, but I could be wrong. To even be able to consider temperatures of this level is remarkable. It is too far away to say if and where any thunderstorms will break down the heat on Thursday, but I am going to attempt to forecast thunderstorms expected tomorrow night into the early hours of Wednesday.

Clearly there will be no shortage of heat and humidity tomorrow with temperatures widely in the 25-32c range, maybe higher in eastern parts, and dewpoints in the upper teens. During the day a strong cap will be in place and this will likely prevent anything from building until evening time when cooler upper air courtesy of a trough moving in from the south-west overspreads the hot, humid air at the surface. This will allow the cap to break and the plume should destabilise with rapidly developing thunderstorms (loaded gun), most likely across the channel in NW France, but also across some SW parts of the UK. This timescale is just now getting into the reaches of the Hi-res models but it is too far away to accurately predict where storms will be. The experienced storm trackers amongst us will be very aware that it normally comes down to radar watching anyway. What I can say is that currently the following is an idea of where storms are most likely to affect on current modelling.

Yellow box - Some models showing storms, but risk lower than further W
Red box - More model agreement on storms occurring here currently (especially over Wales/N England)
Purple box - Highest risk area, and also likely area for most prolific lightning on current modelling.

uk-map.thumb.jpg.c8f4d49f2469996426aad2b8a10701ea.jpg

Storms will most likely be elevated but with the magnitude of CAPE being forecast (MUCAPE up to 2000j/kg but more generally 1000-1500j/kg) and also quite adequate deep layer shear it is likely storms will organise into multi-cells, possibly an MCS moving NNE. Storms could contain frequent lightning, torrential rain, gusty winds and large hail. I would expect somewhere to get a very prolific lightning show come Tuesday night (most likely towards the SW). There will likely be a gradual weakening of the storms as they push northwards out of the highest instability, but lightning coverage should still be there right up into Scotland as far as I have extended the red box.

545540413_MUCAPE00z.thumb.png.a25e3ee95a5b566cb74ef16a1ce025a4.png1556159099_MUCAPE03z.thumb.png.2e26476950315b5af16070113b5f33d2.png

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4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Are you planning on heading SW or staying put? @Supacell

I have booked Wednesday off work just incase I decide to chase on Tuesday night, but will wait until about this time tomorrow to make my decision. On current thinking I would head SW, but the UKV does bring some potent storms to our area on Tuesday evening, so I need to see if there is more support for that before I go.

UKV.thumb.png.18e01223e8f6c5cae77b52900be0c2f9.pngUKV2.thumb.png.4138285d7337c20897ac9fc549426aad.png

 

Edited by Supacell
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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I have booked Wednesday off work just incase I decide to chase on Tuesday night, but will wait until about this time tomorrow to make my decision. On current thinking I would head SW, but the UKV does bring some potent storms to our area on Tuesday evening, so I need to see if there is more support for that before I go.

UKV.thumb.png.18e01223e8f6c5cae77b52900be0c2f9.pngUKV2.thumb.png.4138285d7337c20897ac9fc549426aad.png

 

Yikes I hope that shifts 100 miles further East or the area expands eastwards at least.

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17 minutes ago, Supacell said:

but lightning coverage should still be there right up into Scotland as far as I have extended the red box.

 

Brilliant stuff mate!

I keep seeing conflicting forecasts of the main risk area - Metoffice have me down for thunderstorms early hours of Wednesday morning plus I have seen a few people mention the greatest risk is in the North. (North West England, West/Central/Southern Scotland)

The forecast you just posted looks spot on.

Would you agree with this map below?

I can see some pretty decent thunderstorms kicking off here (West coast of Scotland - looks very humid during the early hours of Wednesday also with temps of 20c)

This really could be a spectacular Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning for many of us in the UK.

D594A883-E3C9-4AA4-A84D-9C0F4462E77C.thumb.png.90c10fe9d70f72e134d7193fb6594ae0.png

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My Missus will be wondering what the hell I’m playing at, spending the first night of my hol in Crete looking at webcams of the action taking place in the UK. Sod’s law eh? Last major night thunderstorm event I saw was in July 2001, now that we could be looking at another one, and yours truly is thousands of miles away. Hope you guys have a good one.

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1 hour ago, Lu. said:

Do you not photograph the storms?

or video only?

Thanks for the 2nd phone idea ?. I use a Nikon for photos and phone for video. But shooting out a car is getting  ridiculously stupid ?

Dry storms possibly so it could be perfect for photography if the rain bands are limited to the core of the cells ?

i use the phone for long exposure too - but have an older Nikon which needs repair. There are a couple of camera shops not far away from here but I think they have to order in the part otherwise I’d go today.

Phones are just quicker and easier for me but would love to buy a new SLR and learn how to use it properly ?

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@Mr Frost For most of the night I would favour further south than this. By early morning on Wednesday then this may well be correct, but only because the storms will have already moved through England and Wales. I am not a weather forecaster though, merely a storm enthusiast/chaser. Scotland has done very well out of situations like this on previous occasions, so who is to say Scotland won't do very well again.

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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Was wondering whether or not I should buy a sim for my old iPhone and use that for radar and net, keeping the other free for video etc ? 

Or use wireless sharing and just connect all your devices to the one phone....

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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

@Mr Frost For most of the night I would favour further south than this. By early morning on Wednesday then this may well be correct, but only because the storms will have already moved through England and Wales. I am not a weather forecaster though, merely a storm enthusiast/chaser. Scotland has done very well out of situations like this on previous occasions, so who is to say Scotland won't do very well again.

That is what I thought - brilliant!

Many thanks for that - much appreciated!

Absolutely buzzing for this to all kick off now! Hopefully we all get in on the action.!

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