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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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Well, tomorrow could be another June 28th. But for Ireland only.  First time I've seen a "severe" on convective weather in a long time.

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:19 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge persists across western Europe, although as it slowly pivots slightly to the east, it allows the EML (elevated mixed layer) that has lingered over the Celtic Sea south of Ireland for the past few days to eventually lift northwards through Friday. A corridor of strong instability (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg elevated CAPE) will ultimately move across S / SW Ireland on Friday morning, which may phase favourably with a ribbon of shear vorticity, and shortwave impulse embedded within the strong southeasterly flow on the forward side of the approaching Atlantic upper vortex.

Forecast profiles are fairly saturated between 800-900mb, suggesting that low cloud may be rather extensive, with drizzle in places. An EML will be located above this layer, from which air parcels may be able to rise and lead to deep elevated convection - assuming some moistening of the profile occurs. Most model guidance is reluctant to develop much in the way of convection, and hence confidence is rather low for this scenario. However, the ECMWF and AROME have consistently, run-on-run, signalled the development for elevated thunderstorms over SW Ireland on Friday morning before moving offshore to the NW.

Given the magnitude of CAPE available, and the strongly-sheared environment, any storms that do manage to develop could become severe - with the main threat being large hail 2-3cm in diameter, and localised surface water flooding. As such, we have issued a conditional SVR area.

There could also be a few elevated showers drifting across NW Ireland towards W Scotland on Friday night, as the EML plume continues to shift gradually northwards and eastwards with time. Subtle forcing and rather dry profiles results in low confidence over how much, if any, lightning activity may occur.

A stronger signal exists late in the night, towards Saturday morning, for a new round of elevated thunderstorms to develop as the upper trough axis sharpens and approaches from the south. Primary interest would be over the Celtic Sea and eventually spreading northwards towards eastern Ireland. Confidence is not particularly high at present, so have refrained from including a SLGT here for now.

IMG_20190628_000140.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper
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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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1 hour ago, Mesoscale said:

Also a lot of the storms that are active right now seem to be going in a southerly direction, from North America to Romania.... its quite strange.

Remember those storms on June 12th/13th 2014 that formed over Hertfordshire, bucks and Berks, then travelled south and ended up over France as English exports! They looked pretty impressive from what I remember. Did you see them down your way at all? 

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Looks as if everything is going to be to my west on Saturday. If there’s one thing we have learnt  though over the last few years it’s that things can and will shift East at the last minute so for once I’m praying it does. 

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6 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Looks as if everything is going to be to my west on Saturday. If there’s one thing we have learnt  though over the last few years it’s that things can and will shift East at the last minute so for once I’m praying it does. 

I'm hoping something may develop in the Irish sea and clip Anglesey

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28 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Very sharp constrast in the West Midlands, 13C/31C within 100 mile range or so. 

Would be surprised if nothing went bang Saturday afternoon

Screenshot_4.jpg

Quite cloudy here and temp struggling to rise. Also very windy. 

 

Probably the only thing going bang here tomorrow will be my laptop hitting the ground outside the window! Taking a suggestion from you. 

Edited by Chris.R
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6 minutes ago, Buddiefan said:

I'm hoping something may develop in the Irish sea and clip Anglesey

Yes. I wish I was camping in Holyhead now; I’d be quite optimistic of seeing something out to sea at least tomorrow. 

Edited by Chris.R
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The FAX shows the cold front being pushed back West tomorrow and then moving East through Sunday in to Monday. Some showers in the Irish sea and on in to Scotland. Other than that, I cannot see much happening.

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Just now, Mapantz said:

The FAX shows the cold front being pushed back West tomorrow and then moving East through Sunday in to Monday. Some showers in the Irish sea and on in to Scotland. Other than that, I cannot see much happening.

If the cold front is delayed then hopefully the warmer temperatures should hold on longer I presume throughout Saturday

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My location; WRF 06Z for tomorrow 17:00.

MU-CAPE: 2288 J/kg. 

MU-LI: -8°C.

 Helicity: 450 M²/S².  

Shear: 26.5 M/S!

 If only all that could get released, it would be like something from the US. 

Edited by Chris.R
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49 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

How do you work out the CCL level (Convective Condensation Level)

To find the CCL, the dew point (100%RH) and surface temperature must first be found at their meeting point (via the wet adiabatic lapse rate line in green) at altitude, known as the LCL (lifted condensation level). Once this is found, follow the wet adiabatic lapse rate line until air temperature is met, you then have your CCL. Maximum cloud height can be found by continuing to follow the wet adiabatic lapse rate until they meet again.

This diagram is just a quick annotation using the sounding you provided from London to make a little more sense!

image.thumb.png.8ca20fd643dc09d2705fc693cfdc960b.png

Hope that helps.

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2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Said it once, I’ll say it again, this time 7 years ago can you believe it. We was witnessing this HP supercell unleashing hell over the East Midlands! 

What a day!

I posted a couple of links a few days back before the storm risk about 28th June 2012

Here's another good one for anyone interested 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wea.2162

 

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Suddenly people are taking photos in Dublin of the cloud structures we are viewing right now.

My daughter and her social media friends are posting up stormy features. 

As of right now I can't see any Thunderstorms heading our way. Time is running out.

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DSCN0116.JPG

Edited by Raindrops
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