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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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28 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Some very tasty charts for Tuesday Night...

1000J/Kg of MLCAPE, Basic Levels of DLS, Extremely High SRH all combined provides a risk of some very quite large hail & prolific lightning as cloud tops reach -50'c. Looks like potential for some elevated supercells where we have best overlap of ingredients.

mucape.thumb.png.a5559a0a9d0eb04651fdf8e45df07170.pngDLS.thumb.png.31fdb22992c3bfd510d2a7e6ed8ca00c.pngEL.thumb.png.3dbac54f91fe1033d872687d70713e24.png

Thompson.thumb.png.078a2df2bec8eca843c14a6c44d828d4.pngSRH.thumb.png.d93cc74dbc892489fb612c865eb72cf9.pngHail.thumb.png.25b9cb505d92c86e1790588d1715b436.png

Really hope it's more East for our side. Fingers crossed for a good storm this time 

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Posted (edited)


This model shows thunderstorm potential for central and eastern areas of the uk, your thoughts?

image.png

Edited by Mitch perrott

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:


This model shows thunderstorm potential for central and eastern areas of the uk, your thoughts?

image.png

Yes, thunderstorms are possible from Tuesday evening and Wednesday before drifting North, with possible scattered storms behind too, but I'm not too sure about this far east as this is showing being closer to the high. But I could be wrong, the East/South east might get some surprises too.

Edited by Sparkiee storm

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17 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:


This model shows thunderstorm potential for central and eastern areas of the uk, your thoughts?

image.png

More than likely will end up further east than currently forecast as has been the case all summer so Id say your in a good spot!

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image.thumb.png.f4f960a7f1b5b807b4f5a01d30680b7d.png
This is rather interesting, the risk never really leaves until the weekend, thursday looking well developed but yeah all other forcasts are saying the storms go more to the west, ill have to wait and see

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TomW said:

More than likely will end up further east than currently forecast as has been the case all summer so Id say your in a good spot!

I really hope so mate haha all the storms saturday night were really strong but only when they passed me they exploded into life when they got back into the ocean, ill be radar watching all week 🙂
image.thumb.png.7f7043b7ec958dec4f2b6f379b84f09d.png
WOW Im interested in the area by east anglia now, the risk for tornado is rather high there for now, but this could only be for a guess, but still, shows this storm has potential to be very potent, also with all the tornados in the UK in the past two days, i wouldnt doubt this prediction!

Edited by Mitch perrott

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See I’m thinking that practically every time the storm risk up to 4 days out shows the worst of it over our area it corrects east just enough to be a Sussex/Kent affair, so I’m hopeful that this standard shift will occur over the next 24 hours.

Its a prediction but I think wilts and hants will be the central zone for the worst (best?) weather, and areas widely to either side will enjoy elevated activity too.

I was wondering if anyone can confirm that the eastern side of whatever may (or may not) form will be the most electrically active? Is this a standard behaviour of MCS thunderstorms in the northern hemisphere?

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11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

See I’m thinking that practically every time the storm risk up to 4 days out shows the worst of it over our area it corrects east just enough to be a Sussex/Kent affair, so I’m hopeful that this standard shift will occur over the next 24 hours.

Its a prediction but I think wilts and hants will be the central zone for the worst (best?) weather, and areas widely to either side will enjoy elevated activity too.

I was wondering if anyone can confirm that the eastern side of whatever may (or may not) form will be the most electrically active? Is this a standard behaviour of MCS thunderstorms in the northern hemisphere?

It is noticeable that the east and south side of a MCS is usually the most intense and where the most lightning occurs! 

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Taking in to account all parameters:

1308837504_Annotation2019-07-21140732.thumb.jpg.b946b6879e4a5a6d6ad03253aebacb27.jpg

However, destabilisation looks further West at the moment. I'd plump for Devon and Cornwall and trundling North.

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Oh joy, i'm meant to be flying out to the Isle of Man early on Wednesday and as much as I enjoy a good storm or two i'm not too keen on possible flight delays 🤨 although a bumpy ride in a DH4 would be interesting.

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Posted (edited)

If this year has taught us anything it’s forecasting this sort of weather 2-3 days out is foolhardy! Exciting though admittedly 😋

Edited by Harry

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I keep bringing out this bad boy. 

So here it is again folks. 

The most precise and accurate forecast map available anywhere.

 

 6C3547C1-0107-4D92-97D0-22B16731BF15.thumb.jpeg.6bcea505e6364ae5f17d4bfb083815c1.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Harry said:

If this year has taught us anything it’s forecasting this sort of weather 2-3 days out is foolhardy! Exciting though admittedly 😋

2-3 hours out is also unreliable 😂

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Being located pretty much in the middle of the Midlands the storms always seem to bypass us to the East or West.

Though I’m hoping this will be a large cluster of storms, spread out over a large area, rather than a thin line of precipitation. 

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1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

Being located pretty much in the middle of the Midlands the storms always seem to bypass us to the East or West.

Though I’m hoping this will be a large cluster of storms, spread out over a large area, rather than a thin line of precipitation. 

A Thunderstorm wider than the UK yes please!

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4 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Being located pretty much in the middle of the Midlands the storms always seem to bypass us to the East or West.

Though I’m hoping this will be a large cluster of storms, spread out over a large area, rather than a thin line of precipitation. 

I know your pain buddy!!living here in south east leicester we seem to suffer year in year out especially when it comes to snowfall😣

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Nothing will happen hear the most we will get if anything is a few distant rumbles as the storm decays trundels over us and then rebuilds for areas north of us

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Hi gang  ,i have been lurking around .Nice to see some good potential for quite a bit of the Uk , personally i am hoping for some overnight activity  ,enough noise to empty the chimney of soot . Hope many of you get to see some Corkers , i am on a diet but today is a treat day  ,sausage sandwiches and brown sauce, cheers aĺl .

 

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 I’m feeling positive about Tuesday night here. Looks better than the last fail anyway. Another significant risk on Thursday it seems as well.

Paul just issued his convective outlook on UKWW. He called the last fail correctly so I’m paying particular attention to his forecasts this time. 

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1 hour ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Oh joy, i'm meant to be flying out to the Isle of Man early on Wednesday and as much as I enjoy a good storm or two i'm not too keen on possible flight delays 🤨 although a bumpy ride in a DH4 would be interesting.

Tough little planes the Q400, but they can't go above a thunderstorm so I suppose they have to be !

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4 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Tough little planes the Q400, but they can't go above a thunderstorm so I suppose they have to be !

That's what i'm hoping as Ronaldsway has a CATI ILS system so it's navigable to land with a minimum ceiling and winds, normally it's the sea-fog which is the cause for diversion or cancellations and the forecast has the worst of the *possible* storms way north by mid-morning.

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Marsh @ Metcheck provides this forecast for Tuesday (based on current output):

250CB4D2-634A-4F3A-8FF7-F2D11346480E.thumb.jpeg.528812d6815754329739861bde4b19fd.jpeg

Taking into account a slight eastward correction that usually occurs (hopefully :oldp:) I would put all but the far east of the UK under some sort of risk, with rainfall being a lesser concern than that of lightning strikes and convective wind gusts.

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Anything that occurs on Tuesday night looks elevated. Therefore I'd imagine lightning may be visible from a fairly wide area, potentially.

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20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I’m feeling positive about Tuesday night here. Looks better than the last fail anyway. Another significant risk on Thursday it seems as well.

Paul just issued his convective outlook on UKWW. He called the last fail correctly so I’m paying particular attention to his forecasts this time. 

what is this UKWW?

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