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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like there will be some elevated lightning drifting N somewhere across England on Tuesday night- even if you're not directly in the path it could be a good light show for many.

UKV, strangely, shows it all dying out as it leaves the Midlands. I expect it'll all go up through the Irish sea and give @Convective a good seeing to.

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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV, strangely, shows it all dying out as it leaves the Midlands. I expect it'll all go up through the Irish sea and give @Convective a good seeing to.

I think it'll ultimately go further E- perhaps taking a path up through CS England and C/E Midlands. Both 12z ICON and GFS take it slightly further E than the 6z runs.

Edited by CreweCold
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3 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

The GB-wide line of cloud is forming a big smile.  It is saying "hahaha, I'm not going to let thunderstorms form along me"

Edit: I'm going to stop posting for at least a day.  I've become bored of my own comments

IMG_20190720_141059.png

What is this line anyway? some kind of upper front or shortwave?  There doesn't seem to be much convergence at the surface. 

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I think it'll ultimately go further E- perhaps taking a path up through CS England and C/E Midlands

The slight East shift now shows up on the UKV. 

viewimage.thumb.png.b40f9e8974495f407ec117a8868ac916.png 671856619_viewimage(1).thumb.png.7ac2b3e9c2c35c8239529e125bafa181.png

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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The slight East shift now shows up on the UKV. 

viewimage.thumb.png.b40f9e8974495f407ec117a8868ac916.png 671856619_viewimage(1).thumb.png.7ac2b3e9c2c35c8239529e125bafa181.png

Yes, ideally for me I need it further W rather than trending E. Seems an absolute eternity since we last had storms tracking up the Marches and W Midlands to affect here.

Edited by CreweCold
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 21 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 22 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:12 UTC Sat 20 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong west-southwesterly flow covers the British Isles on Sunday, with a frontal system pushing across Ireland into western Scotland. Extensive cloud seems likely given deep moisture over these areas, with a broad warm sector covering Ireland during Sunday daytime - characterised by surface dewpoints of 15-17C.

Pulses of largely frontal (dynamic) rain will push northeastwards across Ireland and western Scotland, however there is scope for elevated convection to develop along the Theta-E ridge as a mid-level dry intrusion rides over an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass. EURO4 / UKV / ECMWF have remained consistent in developing elevated thunderstorms late morning over the Atlantic to the west of Connaught / Munster, these then migrating northeastwards across Connaught in particular during the afternoon hours, and towards Ulster.

Confidence is rather low as to how much lightning activity will occur given rather weak instability and fairly saturated profiles, but the environment will be strongly-sheared and as such a low-end SLGT has been introduced. It is plausible there could be quite a bit of heavy (torrential) rain but a distinct lack of notable lightning activity. It is also possible other sporadic pulses of lightning could occur elsewhere in Ireland outside of the SLGT area, but it is rather difficult to be more specific at this stage - and adjustments may be required to the forecast.

While most convection will be elevated, should a stronger cell be able to root within the boundary layer then strong LLS, notable SREH and backed surface winds could allow a tornado to occur. In general, most lightning activity should decrease by the evening hours with only isolated strikes expected on Sunday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-21

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4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The slight East shift now shows up on the UKV. 

viewimage.thumb.png.b40f9e8974495f407ec117a8868ac916.png 671856619_viewimage(1).thumb.png.7ac2b3e9c2c35c8239529e125bafa181.png

Latest gfs takes the plume and activity further west!!!keep those ukv updates coming mate!!

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I’m now in Florida.

My hometown Bedford was close to seeing some lightning, but it was a bit too north.

Speaking of storms, on the first day in Florida I saw some distant lightning from a VERY tall cumulonimbus cloud!

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Early model consensus (a nice change to already have some agreement) suggests SW Eng, Wales and W Midlands most likely at risk, some models take the risk further into the Midlands and later NE England however some models do not, so for now I've only issued a SLGT where models are in agreement for thunderstorm risks. 

548014707_ConvectiveOutlook.thumb.png.3c13fbeafd8414d5e2374eb19f5e1e3e.png

CAPE in the region of 600-1000J/KG especially across parts of Wales depending on which model you look at, fairly strong low level convergence and pockets of moderate deep layer shear suggest the possibility of severe thunderstorms (MCS) can't be ruled out, especially across S Wales and parts of SW England. 

Risk areas of course subject to change/level upgrades.

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9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Early model consensus (a nice change to already have some agreement) suggests SW Eng, Wales and W Midlands most likely at risk, some models take the risk further into the Midlands and later NE England however some models do not, so for now I've only issued a SLGT where models are in agreement for thunderstorm risks. 

548014707_ConvectiveOutlook.thumb.png.3c13fbeafd8414d5e2374eb19f5e1e3e.png

CAPE in the region of 600-1000J/KG especially across parts of Wales depending on which model you look at, fairly strong low level convergence and pockets of moderate deep layer shear suggest the possibility of severe thunderstorms (MCS) can't be ruled out, especially across S Wales and parts of SW England. 

Risk areas of course subject to change/level upgrades.

I Just Hope It Can Cover where i am and i can get lightning all around me,with it covering northamptonshire and leicestershire as well as me in warwickshire.

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@Met4Cast I am hopeful that slight risk will be further North West. ?

Hoping for some elevated/even potential severe thunderstorms here next week near the West coast of Scotland but the dreaded thundery rain and thundery showers wording have been wheeled out on my latest outlook from the Met Office.

 91DDF567-3878-459B-8CE7-CFC6715D0E6C.thumb.png.c42955b6f2e1b9e1f8314b3395ad3db0.png

9 times out of 10 that results in some nice convection with torrential downpours...but no thunder or lightning! 

Much like I had numerous times back in late June. 

31C8E064-59F4-4FDF-92EF-0997B3A4712B.thumb.jpeg.6dfbb7e2ceef22fc22682b8759ffa461.jpeg

Early doors though regarding next week and obviously lots of chopping and changing to come - looks a great week ahead though potentially for the bulk of us! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 23 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 24 Jul 2019

ISSUED 07:56 UTC Sun 21 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

This is an extended outlook, and as such it is likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. However, provided guidance continues to remain relatively consistent, upgrades to higher threat levels are possible in future outlooks.

An upper ridge will cover much of western and central Europe on Tuesday, its axis over Germany / Switzerland placing the British Isles in a south-southwesterly flow on its western flank. This will encourage gradual advection of a high Theta-W airmass northwards, with surface dewpoints of 17-20C expected on Tuesday afternoon across England and Wales. An elevated mixed layer (EML) will over-run this very warm, moist low-level airmass, generally preventing any surface-based thunderstorms from developing.

Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Atlantic to the west of Ireland will swing northeastwards, the associated falling heights and cooling aloft resulting in increasing instability over northern France and the western English Channel where 1,000 - 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Convective initiation is expected during the evening hours over N France / W English Channel / SW England as a few scattered elevated thunderstorms develop and drift to the N or NNE, but ultimately should become more widespread with each hour through Tuesday evening and night - initially over Wales / SW England / Irish Sea, before spreading into central England and southern Scotland during the early hours of Wednesday. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-23

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Headed down to Taunton hopefully or at least somewhere in that area - looks like it could be a repeat of those amazing storms they had over Cornwall in May a couple of years ago. We may end up with several significantly active elevated cells and a lot of areas with little or no rain and a good view of the activity.

Google weather showing 24° at midnight - which is like a hot day ?

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Some very tasty charts for Tuesday Night...

1000J/Kg of MLCAPE, Basic Levels of DLS, Extremely High SRH all combined provides a risk of some very quite large hail & prolific lightning as cloud tops reach -50'c. Looks like potential for some elevated supercells where we have best overlap of ingredients.

mucape.thumb.png.a5559a0a9d0eb04651fdf8e45df07170.pngDLS.thumb.png.31fdb22992c3bfd510d2a7e6ed8ca00c.pngEL.thumb.png.3dbac54f91fe1033d872687d70713e24.png

Thompson.thumb.png.078a2df2bec8eca843c14a6c44d828d4.pngSRH.thumb.png.d93cc74dbc892489fb612c865eb72cf9.pngHail.thumb.png.25b9cb505d92c86e1790588d1715b436.png

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Notice the UKMO have yet to issue any warnings for Tuesday night. Recently they’ve been quick off the mark to issue them several days out.

A little more cautious until closer to the time following a few weeks back involving storms coming up from France where things didn’t quite go as forecast?

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